Best Bet for NBA ROY: James Wiseman, LaMelo Ball, Tyrese Haliburton?
The NBA’s preseason is underway, and the regular season is set to start December 22nd, making it just a few short months since the NBA Finals occurred. With a week left to get your preseason bets in, the NBA Rookie of the Year conversation is set to become a wild race in 2020-21.
The race will be between various players, and narrowing down the list to just a few, here are my favorites. You can check out BettingPros odds consensus to get the best odds for your player props and futures bets. Let’s get to it.
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James Wiseman, Golden State Warriors +700 on FanDuel
The Warriors’ latest draft pick is former Memphis center and No. 3 overall pick James Wiseman. He was deemed the missing piece to the Warriors’ rotation before Klay Thompson went down with a season-ending Achilles injury. Wiseman is a unique center that can become a threat in the transition game and blossom into a problem in the paint with his 7-foot-6 wingspan.
A lineup of Steph Curry, Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, and Wiseman sounded like an attempt to re-enter the NBA Finals conversation. Still, without Thompson, those chances have decreased dramatically. Curry and Green battled injuries all 2019-20, and if Curry is re-injured, the Warriors will likely decide to shut it down for the season and tank for a second consecutive year. Regardless if that happens, Wiseman is a front-runner and my favorite selection for ROY.
If Wiseman sees extended minutes because of injuries, he will be a nightly double-double threat. His talent is untapped because of his early exit from Memphis after the NCAA tagged him ineligible, and we’ve yet to see what he’s truly capable of. At 7-foot-1 and hovering around 250 lbs, Wiseman is a solid size for a center, and his defensive parameters and glass-cleaning ability makes him a prime candidate to win ROY out of the 2020 draft class.
Karl-Anthony Towns was the last big to win NBA Rookie of the Year in 2016. Before him, there was Blake Griffin (2011), Emeka Okafor (2005), Amar’e Stoudemire (2003), Pau Gasol (2002), and Elton Brand (200) as the only big men to win ROY since 2000. It’s not common with only six big men and four true centers winning ROY in the last 20 years. Still, Wiseman comes into a unique situation with a championship contender giving him a significant advantage.
I’m expecting Wiseman to average 15 points and 8 rebounds per game as a rookie, and if he can earn a few assists and blocks per outing, he should be in the conversation throughout the season.
LaMelo Ball, Charlotte Hornets +400 on DraftKings
The Hornets have a roster loaded with young talent, and that could be a negative as Ball likely won’t help this team grow in many ways. Ball’s best opportunity at winning ROY is leading all rookies in assists while making up for his lack of defense with steals, and flashy transition passes. He also has the talent to average double-digit points and four or five rebounds per game, but the game’s talent jump and pace is something he will have to become accustomed to.
In Australia’s National Basketball League, Ball averaged 17.0 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 6.8 assists over 12 games before an injury cut his season short. In his stint, Ball was an uptempo do-it-all guard that excelled at pushing the pace leading the charge in transition or pulling up from three unexpectedly. Ball is that player that makes you say “NO†when he shoots, but sometimes he surprises you and shows flashes that leave you wanting more.
His rookie season won’t be determined by his team’s success, just his statistics, something Wiseman and other rookies have the upper hand on over him. With Terry Rozier, Devonte’ Graham, Miles Bridges, P.J. Washington, and Malik Monk, Ball is in good company for his style of play. The Hornets shot the 14th-most three-pointers last season per game (34.3) but were last in points per game (102.9), so Ball’s ability to create shots for teammates is much-needed.
An interesting stat for ROY: The last four guards that won ROY have averaged a minimum of 15.8 points, 6.0 assists, and 3.9 rebounds per game.
That will be the target average for Ball as a rookie, and I think he can achieve the assist and rebound totals, but I’m confident he’s not a consistent 15-point scorer in the NBA as of now, more like 8-12.
Tyrese Haliburton, Sacramento Kings +2000 on FanDuel
Haliburton is one guard that I wouldn’t be surprised to see average 15.8 points, 6.0 assists, and 3.9 rebounds per game. Alongside D’Aaron Fox, Haliburton may not have the usage rate Ball or Killian Hayes will have, but he’s going to be productive. At Iowa State, Haliburton averaged 15.2 points, 6.5 assists, 5.9 rebounds, and 2.5 steals as a sophomore.
The Kings rank 14th in steals (7.7), 21st in rebounds per game (23.8), and 22nd in points per game (110.1), categories that Haliburton will increase production in right away. He’s another do-it-all guard out of this class, and he’s worth a bet in case the Kings deal Buddy Hield. Hield signed a new deal last season, but he is always in the middle of trade rumors, and the chances the Kings rebuild and deal Hield for pieces, role players, or draft picks is likely.
As of now, Haliburton is the primary ball-handler behind Fox for the Kings, and with Marvin Bagley, Harrison Barnes, Glenn Robinson, and Jabari Parker, they’re a very forward-focused team, so a guy like Haliburton could run up the assists and find his role on the team as the sixth-man and second-unit ball-handler. If Haliburton’s three-point game transitions to the pros, he’s going to be a problem and one of the most underrated talents out of this class.
He knocked down 41.9% of his triples in his final year at Iowa State, making 2.4 of 5.6 three-pointers per game. The Kings made the 11th-most three-pointers, attempted the 12th-most, and knocked down the 11th-best percentage in the league last year. Add in Halliburton, and they’re likely to crack the top 10 if he can replace Bogdan Bogdanovic’s production from last season. Don’t sleep on Haliburton in Sacramento.
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Vaughn Dalzell is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Vaughn, check out his archive or follow him @VaughnDalzell.