Best Bets for NFL Thursday Night Football: 49ers vs. Rams (Week 15)
Thursday Night Football has had banger after banger after banger this season, and the Rams and 49ers have the potential to be another fun back-and-forth game.
As a result, a few overs were among my favorite bets. However, one under was my favorite choice.
Here are my best bets for Week 15’s 49ers-Rams Thursday Night Football matchup.
Best Thursday Night Football Week 15 Player Prop Bets
All bets are one unit unless otherwise specified.
Deebo Samuel Under 49.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Deebo Samuel is having a career-worst season by traditional measures and efficiency metrics. Yet, his full-season stats are shiny compared to what he’s posted recently.
According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, Samuel has had the following stats since Week 11:
- 82.1% route participation
- 12.4% air yards share
- 18.8% target share
- 21.3% first-read percentage
- 2.75 receptions per game
- 21.3 receiving yards per game
- 0.89 yards per route run
From Week 11 through Week 14, he had 22, 21, 20 and 22 receiving yards. Samuel hasn’t reached even half of this week’s receiving yardage prop in any of his last four games.
He hasn’t provided any reason to believe he’ll snap out of his funk against the Rams. In addition, Kyle Shanahan might need to use Samuel more often as a running back.
Injuries have ravaged San Francisco’s backfield, and Isaac Guerendo isn’t trending in the right direction to suit up after spraining his foot on Sunday.
Jauan Jennings Over 5.5 Receptions (-113 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jauan Jennings and Samuel have been like two ships passing in the night. While Samuel’s statistical trajectory is on a nosedive, Jennings is having a breakout campaign.
He had an adequate start to the season, but Jennings’ season truly took off when he smashed the Rams in Week 3. Jennings had 12 targets, 11 receptions, 175 receiving yards and three touchdowns against Los Angeles that week.
He was rock-solid the following week but had a pair of clunkers before settling into a groove. In Jennings’ previous five games, he’s had seven, 10, five, three and seven receptions. Jennings’ stats since Week 10:
- 29.2% target share
- 0.30 targets per route run
- 35.6% first-read percentage
- 32 receptions (6.4 per game)
Jennings doesn’t need to duplicate his eruption against the Rams from Week 3 to hit this plus-money prop. He just has to play to his average numbers in his previous five games.
Jauan Jennings Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Predictably, Jennings has piled up yardage with his receptions. Since Week 10, he’s averaged 74 receiving yards per game, with a median of 90. Jennings had over 68.5 receiving yards in five of those contests.
He also had over 68.5 receiving yards in two of the previous four weeks, including the 175 he hung on the Rams in Week 3.
Jennings also had an outstanding 35.8% air yards share since Week 10, among his other robust target rates.
Since I’m not optimistic about Samuel reprising his role as a top weapon in San Francisco’s offense, Jennings is an appealing pick to surpass 68.5 receiving yards.
Puka Nacua Over 88.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Puka Nacua’s season looked like it might have been lost in Week 1 when he was injured after he already had a bursa sac issue before the year.
The second-year pro had only a 32% snap share in Week 1 before he spent the next six weeks on the injured reserve (IR).
Nacua not only didn’t skip a beat after returning to the Rams, he’s gone on a heater. Nacua has erupted for the following numbers in his last seven games:
- 33.1% air yards share
- 29.5% target share
- 0.38 targets per route run
- 36.7% first-read percentage
- 50 receptions (7.1 per game)
- 96.1 receiving yards per game
- 3.60 yards per route run
He’s also just a year removed from barbecuing the 49ers for 15 receptions and 147 receiving yards in his second professional game. Nacua’s line is justifiably high, but he’s demonstrated the ability to clear it in five out of seven games since returning from IR.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.