Best Bets for NFL Thursday Night Football: Saints vs. Broncos (Week 7)

by Josh Shepardson |
Oct 17, 2024

The Broncos and Saints are banged up, enhancing the appeal of two forthcoming players props for one player. A pair of rookies also have eye-catching player props.

Here are my best bets for the Week 7 Saints/Broncos matchup on Thursday Night Football.

Best Thursday Night Football Week 7 Player Prop Bets

All bets are one unit unless otherwise specified.

Alvin Kamara Over 4.5 Receptions (-175 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Alvin Kamara is a critical part of the passing attack for New Orleans, and that didn’t change with Spencer Rattler starting in Week 6. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Kamara had a 20% target share and earned a target on 27.6% of his 29 routes last week. Kamara parlayed his robust usage into five receptions.

Per Pro Football Reference, Kamara has averaged 4.7 receptions per game this season. He’s surpassed 4.5 receptions in four of six games, including three straight. Furthermore, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed are out this week. As a result, Kamara should be force-fed targets.

Alvin Kamara Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-135 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

Kamara is likely to exceed 32.5 receiving yards if he surpasses 4.5 receptions. His line at BetMGM Sportsbook is one yard lower than at FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook and two lower than at Caesars Sportsbook. It’s a little chalky, but it’s also -129 for the over at Caesars Sportsbook, making his line at BetMGM Sportsbook a relative steal.

Kamara has averaged 39.7 receiving yards per game this year, eclipsing 32.5 four times in six opportunities this year. Kamara’s median is also 40.0 receiving yards. I love Kamara’s receiving outlook this week.

Bo Nix Over 24.5 Rushing Yards (-120 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

Bo Nix is a genuine rushing threat. There’s nothing sneaky about his mobility. The dual-threat rookie quarterback has averaged 30.0 rushing yards per game this year. Nix has rumbled for over 24.5 rushing yards four times this year.

He’s used as a designed runner, admittedly, inefficiently. According to PFF, Nix has had 37 designed runs for 28 yards. Still, he’s a menace as a scrambler, rattling off 152 rushing yards on 19 scrambles. His scrambling proficiency is ideal for this specific matchup.

According to RotoViz’s pace app, New Orleans is tied for the third-highest situation-neutral pass rate (64%) against them. So, they’re a pass-funnel defense. Mobile quarterbacks have also succeeded on the ground against the Saints. Jalen Hurts (25 rushing yards), Baker Mayfield (29 rushing yards) and Patrick Mahomes (22 rushing yards) had stellar showings against the Saints, and Mahomes’s numbers were misleading since he had three kneel-downs, costing him three rushing yards. As a result, Nix should be the next quarterback to eclipse 24.5 rushing yards against the Saints, and FantasyPros projects him to have 26.3.

Troy Franklin Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-110 BetMGM Sportsbook)

Josh Reynolds was placed on the Injured Reserve (IR) last week, opening the door for others to play more frequently. Troy Franklin had a season-high 28 routes and 30 passing snaps in Week 6 after tallying only 35 and 39 in the first five weeks.

Franklin hasn’t been an impressive target earner. Nevertheless, he’s been targeted on an adequate 22.2% of his routes this year and had a season-high 31 receiving yards in his first extended opportunity. Franklin has eclipsed 17.5 receiving yards in back-to-back games, and he already has a rapport with Nix since they played together for the Oregon Ducks.

Also, again, the Saints have a pass-funnel defense, which is ideal for Franklin’s receiving outlook. Finally, Franklin’s receiving yards line is incongruent with the -185 for over 1.5 receptions, making -110 for over 17.5 receiving yards a steal. FantasyPros projects Franklin to have 24.6 receiving yards this week.

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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