Best Bets for NFL Thursday Night Football: Seahawks vs. 49ers (Week 6)

by Josh Shepardson |
Oct 10, 2024

Thursday Night Football has featured various division battles, and the NFC West is in the crosshairs this week in a battle between the Seahawks and 49ers.

Here are my best bets for the Week 6 Seahawks/49ers matchup on Thursday Night Football.

Best Thursday Night Football Week 6 Player Prop Bets

All bets are one unit unless otherwise specified.

Jordan Mason Over 17.5 Rush Attempts (-120 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

San Francisco’s backfield is Jordan Mason’s without Christian McCaffrey. According to FantasyPros, Mason has a 75% snap share this year. The playing time isn’t empty snaps, either.

Mason’s 105 rush attempts are the most for the 49ers, and Deebo Samuel’s 15 and Isaac Guerendo’s 12 are the only others by non-quarterbacks. Mason has averaged 21.0 rush attempts per game, exceeding 17.5 in four games, including both of San Francisco’s victories.

The 49ers are 3.5-point favorites this week. Therefore, the game script should be favorable for Mason’s rush attempts. His -120 line for over 17.5 rush attempts at FanDuel Sportsbook is a relative value versus -135 at BetMGM Sportsbook, enhancing the appeal of the wager.

George Kittle Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-113 at Caesars Sportsbook)

George Kittle has played well in four healthy contests this year. According to Pro Football Reference, he’s averaged 5.8 receptions per game and 56.3 receiving yards per game this season. The stud tight end’s median is 54.5 receiving yards.

Kittle has a favorable matchup against his NFC West foe. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, Kittle has a 53.9% inline rate this year, and the Seahawks have allowed the fourth-highest target share (13.9%) to players aligned inline. Unsurprisingly, according to Pro Football Reference, Seattle has allowed the fifth most receiving yards per game (57.2) to tight ends this season. Thus, FantasyPros projects Kittle to have 58.8 receiving yards against the Seahawks.

Kenneth Walker Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

Kenneth Walker didn’t enter the NFL with receiving chops, and it was unclear how new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb would divvy up backfield opportunities between him and Zach Charbonnet. Grubb has used Walker as a legitimate bell-cow back, including utilizing Walker in the passing attack.

According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Walker has run 75 routes and played 96 passing snaps in three healthy contests, and Charbonnet had 43 and 65. Walker hasn’t wasted his new gig. Instead, he’s been targeted on 21.3% of his routes, converting his targets into 13 receptions and 99 receiving yards.

Walker has surpassed 18.5 receiving yards in-to-back games, amassing 36 against the Lions in Week 4 and 57 versus the Giants in Week 5. He has an ideal matchup to stay involved as a receiver.

The 49ers are tied for the sixth-highest target share (18.5%) allowed to running backs this season. As a result, running backs have averaged 42.2 receiving yards per game against the 49ers. FantasyPros projects Walker to have 20.2 receiving yards against San Francisco.

D.K. Metcalf Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-115 BetMGM Sportsbook)

D.K. Metcalf is thriving in Seattle’s new pass-happy offense. According to RotoViz’s pace app, Seattle’s 65% situation-neutral pass rate is the highest in the NFL this year.

Metcalf has emerged as an alpha in the offense. Per the data suite at Fantasy Points, Metcalf is first on the Seahawks in air-yard share (40.3%), target share (21.1%), receiving yards per game (84.2) and first-read percentage (26.8%).

Metcalf has had over 63.5 receiving yards in three of five contests this season, with a median of 104. The big-bodied deployment is also ideal for this matchup. Metcalf has an 84.1% wide rate, and the 49ers have faced the seventh-highest target rate (44.4%) wide. So, FantasyPros projects Metcalf to have 71.2 receiving yards this week.

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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