Best Bets for Super Bowl LV MVP
The Super Bowl MVP award has historically been a quarterback award. A QB has won the honor 30 times, while running backs and wide receivers have won it seven times each.
History suggests the Super Bowl LV MVP will likely be either Patrick Mahomes or Tom Brady. In 10 Super Bowls where the total closed at 52 points or higher, a quarterback has won the MVP award eight times. The only two non-quarterbacks to win the award with a total that high were Desmond Howard in Super Bowl 31 and Julian Edelman in Super Bowl 53.
The current total for Sunday’s showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers is 56.
While it’s likely one of these two quarterbacks will hoist the MVP award in one hand and the Lombardi Trophy in another, it’s not a guarantee. With that being said, let’s take a look at some best bets for the Super Bowl LV MVP.
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All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
The Chalk Pick
Getting Mahomes at just shy of even money is actually pretty good value when you consider the Chiefs are -162 to win outright. I’m picking the Chiefs to win this game and expect Mahomes to be the primary reason why.
I won’t say the Chiefs are a one-dimensional offense, but I don’t think they’ll find much success in the running game this weekend. Kansas City’s 16th-ranked running game should struggle against Tampa Bay, who boasts the best run defense in the league.
We’ve already seen Mahomes win this award in a game where he might not have been deserving. Mahomes was named MVP in last year’s contest despite throwing for only 286 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. However, running back Damien Williams was probably more deserving with 133 total yards and two scores.
But again, this is a quarterback award! If you like the Chiefs to win, take the shot on Mahomes. If you like Tampa to win, take Brady at +210.
The Pick: Patrick Mahomes (-106)
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The Mid-Shot
I’m calling Kelce a mid-shot because he’s got the fourth best odds but still feels like a relative long shot. History isn’t exactly on his side either, as a tight end has never won Super Bowl MVP. But it wouldn’t stun me if Kelce was the first.
The big story coming into this game is Tyreek Hill. In case you haven’t heard it 50 times by now, Hill caught 13 passes for 269 yards and three touchdowns in the first meeting between these teams.
You know who’s also heard that? The Buccaneers secondary and defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. I’m not suggesting the Buccaneers will shut down Hill. Cheetah will still get his. But I expect a lot more zone from Tampa on Sunday with the sole purpose of preventing Hill from getting behind them. When the Bucs play man, I’m expecting bracket coverage with safety help to prevent any long plays.
That type of defensive game plan is perfect for Kelce, who should be open all day down the seam and in the middle of the field. Kelce has been the focal point of Kansas City’s aerial attack ever since Hill went off against Tampa Bay. Since Week 12, Kelce has caught 52 of his 72 targets with a touchdown in his last six games. Meanwhile, Hill has caught 36 of his 55 targets and hasn’t scored in three games.
You have to pick your poison when game planning against the Chiefs. I expect Tampa’s emphasis to be on keeping Hill contained and banking on their pass rush getting to Mahomes early and often.
All of this adds up to what could be an MVP-caliber performance from Kelce.
The Pick: Travis Kelce (+1300)
The Long Shot
A defensive player has won Super Bowl MVP 10 times, with four linebackers winning the honor. We’ve recently seen linebackers Malcolm Smith and Von Miller win MVP.
I’ve heard a lot of people mention Shaq Barrett, Jason Pierre-Paul and Tyrann Mathieu as MVP long shots, but haven’t heard much about White. We shouldn’t forget this fantastic linebacker.
If you ask me, White is the best defensive player on either team. He’s a tackling machine who seems to play at 150 miles per hour sometimes. His closing speed when making a tackle is among the best I’ve seen.
To win MVP as a defender, you need to create havoc and turnovers. Smith had a pick-six when he won MVP, and Miller had 2.5 sacks and two forced fumbles in his MVP performance. White could have that type of game. He had nine sacks in 2020 and has recovered two fumbles for touchdowns in his young career.
Everyone seems to be expecting a high-scoring affair on Sunday. But we can’t completely neglect the alternate reality of this being lower scoring. Rain is in the forecast Saturday night into Sunday morning in Tampa, which could lead to a sloppy track at Raymond James Stadium. And if Tampa Bay is going to win this game, it’ll need at least a couple of big plays from its defense. Devin White could be that playmaker.
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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @RealMattBarbato.