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Poor Chase Elliott got robbed of a win last Sunday. The caution came out as he was leading with just two to go, and crew chief Alan Gustafson called him into the pits. While Elliott still managed a second-place finish, it wasn’t the finish that he deserved.

But Elliott will have another chance to score his first win of the year this Wednesday — at 8:00 PM EST, the Alsco Uniforms 500 gets underway at Charlotte Motor Speedway. Here are my predictions and best bets for NASCAR’s second mid-week race of the season.

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Past Performance at Charlotte (and Texas)

Let’s start with past performance. These are the top drivers’ stats at two of NASCAR’s quad-ovals (Atlanta is excluded due to its torn-up racing surface).

Driver Name	Avg Finish	Races	Wins	Top 5’s	Top 10’s	Driver Rating (Last 21)
Tyler Reddick	8.00	1	0	0	1	94.40
Christopher Bell	9.00	1	0	0	1	78.50
Jimmie Johnson	11.74	68	15	32	44	101.32
Chase Elliott	12.75	15	0	5	9	90.70
Kevin Harvick	12.84	70	6	20	40	114.14
Kyle Busch	12.97	58	4	26	34	104.60
Joey Logano	13.30	43	2	16	22	96.65
Denny Hamlin	13.30	55	3	16	30	88.97
Martin Truex, Jr.	13.65	56	3	11	28	111.85
Alex Bowman*	14.29	9	0	1	3	84.01
Daniel Suarez	15.82	10	0	2	3	77.76
Brad Keselowski	15.96	42	2	10	17	92.24
Clint Bowyer	16.05	60	2	5	26	83.74
Kurt Busch	17.40	37	1	7	14	93.27

*Bowman’s stats are only from his starts with Hendrick Motorsports

New to this week’s chart are both Tyler Reddick and Christopher Bell. Both rookies scored top-10 finishes in their first-ever Cup series starts at Charlotte. That’s quite the accomplishment for both of them, but driver ratings reveal that Reddick ran a much better race than Bell did.

Jimmie Johnson continues to lead all drivers with multiple starts at these tracks despite his disqualification from Sunday’s race. Although he piloted his 48 car to a second-place finish, the penalty dropped his finishing position to 40th. It’s a tough break for the seven-time champion, but it doesn’t dissuade me from considering him here.

Driver ratings love Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex, Jr. here, but one driver performs significantly better at Charlotte than the other. Truex has the same number of wins at Charlotte as Harvick does in 11 fewer starts, and he’s finished outside the top-10 just once here since 2014. He’s even led 1,050 laps across that nine-race span. Kyle Busch has also posted impressive driver ratings at Charlotte, with finishes of fourth, third, and first since 2018.

Last Sunday’s top two, Brad Keselowski and Chase Elliott, deserve some credit for bolstering their stats. Elliott overcame multiple problems to post his second-place finish, and it looked like he had the car to beat. Since his 90.70 driver rating has been bogged down by Hendricks’ recent struggles, I’m still optimistic about him. Meanwhile, Keselowski lucked into a win on Sunday. The fact that he could put himself in position to win is impressive for sure — he just hasn’t ever been a dominant guy here like Truex or Johnson.

Lastly, Alex Bowman’s driver rating of 84.01 isn’t impressive, but his performance last Sunday was. He led the most laps out of anyone, and he won both Stage 1 and Stage 2. His 116.8-point driver rating trailed only Truex and Elliott, and like Elliott, I’m willing to overlook some of his previous stats due to Hendricks’ recent lack of speed.

Recent Speed

Drivers can only go as fast as their cars let them, so we have to weigh their track-specific performances against the cars they drive. While finishing position gives us a snapshot of speed, those numbers are often diluted by strategy calls, penalties, and on-track incidents. As a result, full-race stats like average central speed (courtesy of The Athletic) and driver rating give us a better picture.

These metrics include factors like fastest laps, laps led, and average running position — all of which can help us identify drivers with strong cars.

Rank	Driver	Average Central Speed	Avg Driver Rating
1	Chase Elliott	3.00	108.1
3	Brad Keselowski	5.00	102.1
4	Joey Logano	5.67	100.5
6	Martin Truex, Jr.	7.33	93.5
7	Alex Bowman	7.67	107.4
9	Jimmie Johnson	9.67	92.9
15	Tyler Reddick	14.33	79.9

Two of the three Hendrick drivers jump out at me here. Both Bowman and Elliott have been dominant forces so far in 2020, and their average driver ratings reflect that. Of the 1,898 laps that NASCAR has run this year, the two drivers have led 570 of them — that’s roughly 30 percent! Only Kevin Harvick has led more laps than either Bowman or Elliott.

The one Gibbs guy I’ve included on this list, Martin Truex, Jr., also stands out from the crowd. While he hasn’t yet posted a top-5 finish, he’s led more laps than any other Toyota driver, and he leads the bunch in driver rating. I’ve written a lot about Toyota’s speed regression this year, and I that their two wins have prevented others from seeing the obvious — Ford and Chevrolet are the manufacturers to beat this year.

Although I’ve left out Ford’s ace, Kevin Harvick, two other Ford guys have posted impressive speed. Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski have three wins between them, and their combined 554 laps leave them close behind Bowman and Elliott. Although neither driver flashed dominant speed on Sunday, Keselowski still won the race, and the pair are tied for the best average finishing position (11.0) behind Kevin Harvick.

Tyler Reddick is also worth mentioning here. He’s everyone’s favorite underdog, and fans would love to Dale Jr.’s old number eight back in victory lane. Even though Reddick hasn’t posted elite speed this season, he’s capable of a strategy-based win and a handful of top-10s.

Betting Odds 

Let’s take a look at the betting odds for our seven drivers over at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Driver	To Win	Top-5	Top-10
Martin Truex, Jr.	+500	-125	-455
Chase Elliott	+550	-115	-400
Alex Bowman	+750	+108	-335
Brad Keselowski	+900	+135	-250
Jimmie Johnson	+1100	+145	-225
Joey Logano	+1100	+160	-225
Tyler Reddick	+4000	+500	+150

Last Sunday’s winner is decidedly not the betting favorite for this Wednesday’s race. Four guys have shorter odds than he does (Kyle Busch is at +700), and Toyota driver Martin Truex, Jr. is the overall favorite.

Best Single-Driver Bets

Isaiah’s Pick is currently 2-1 on the season.

To Win: Chase Elliott (+550)
I took Chase to win last time, and I’ll take him to win this time, too. Elliott’s bad luck is the stuff of legend at this point, but his speed and talent are just too much to pass up here. Elliott has proven that he’s got the car to succeed, the skill to drive through traffic, and the tenacity to not let minor inconveniences throw him off his game. It’s his race to win, and at odds of +550, I’m comfortable putting money on him to pull it off.

To Win: Alex Bowman (+750)
That said, Hendrick teammate Alex Bowman could earn the victory if Elliott can’t. Bowman has been a model of consistency this season, and I’m not going to let his unfortunate 19th-place finish on Sunday make me think otherwise. Like Elliott, Bowman got screwed over by a late-race caution, and I’m confident in his ability to rebound. Either — or both — Hendrick drivers are strong bets to win this weekend.

To Finish Top-5: Alex Bowman (+108) — Isaiah’s Pick
Bowman spent almost all of Sunday’s race in the top-5. He led the most laps, didn’t make mistakes, and would’ve brought it home top-5 if not for William Byron’s late-race accident. I’m shocked that you can get him in plus money here, so I’m punching this in and not looking back.

Best Prop Bets

Manufacturer of Race Winner: Hendrick Motorsports (+180)
Although the two-way prop bet I recommended last week cashed, DraftKings has finally adjusted their odds to reflect Toyota’s struggles in 2020. That’s unfortunate, but there’s still value elsewhere. You can bet on all four of Hendrick’s guys with this line, and that gives you exposure to three drivers with a realistic chance to win the race. Although you’d make more money betting on Elliott or Bowman independently, this is a good line to play if you want to bet on Jimmie Johnson but don’t want to stomach lots of risk.

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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.