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Best Bets for The American Express (PGA Betting)

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Prior to last week’s Sony Open in Hawaii, Australian native Cameron Smith pledged to donate $500 to the bushfire crisis in his homeland. On Sunday, Smith ended up lifting the trophy after beating Brendan Steele in a playoff. It was an awesome storyline to the week and the title couldn’t have gone to a better guy. This was Smith’s second career PGA Tour victory and his first since winning the Zurich Classic of New Orleans in 2017.

The PGA Tour now returns to mainland USA for the newly titled event “The American Express.” Formerly known as the Desert Classic and CareerBuilder Challenge, the event will once again take place in La Quinta, California. Atop the betting board, we see Rickie Fowler as the heavy favorite at +1200. He is followed by Sungjae Im (+2000), Paul Casey (+2200), and Tony Finau (+2200). Defending champion Adam Long returns and could make for a good value bet at +9000.

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Course Preview

Golfers will have to navigate between three different courses this week. Each participant will be guaranteed three rounds this week, as the cut will not take place until after 54 holes. La Quinta Country Club is the easiest of the three, measuring at 7,060 yards and playing as a par 72. It is the shortest of the three and has the most generous fairways to hit.

The PGA West Tournament Course rates as the second easiest of the trio. It plays as a par 72, and measures at just 7,159 yards. A Jack Nicklaus design, the course favors elite ball-strikers who can keep it out of trouble off the tee. The Greens are a bit smaller and approach play must be on point to score low.

The PGA Stadium course will be played twice by the golfers. It poses the biggest challenge, as it is a classic Pete Dye design. The course features many well-protected greens, blind approach shots, deep bunkers, and water throughout. It measures at 7,113 yards long and will play as a Par 72.

Key Stats

  • Par 4 Scoring
  • Birdie-or-Better
  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Recent Form
  • Performance on Pete Dye Courses

Best Bets to Win

Kevin Kisner (+2800 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Kisner led the entire tournament in strokes gained: tee-to-green, last week. He shot rounds of 69-69-64-69 en-route to a solid T4 finish at the Sony Open in Hawaii. Normally one of the best putters on Tour, Kisner did not gain any strokes with the flat stick. I expect positive regression in that department this week, and with the rest of his game looking great, he should have a real chance of winning the tournament.

In Kisner’s last four events on Tour, he has a T4, a T14, a T8, and a T7. The 30th ranked golfer in the world is playing some superb golf and it’s only a matter of time before he gets a win. Kisner’s accuracy off the tee and strong approach play should benefit him at the Stadium course this week.

Brian Harman (+3000 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
In his last four appearances at this event, Harman has a third-place finish, a T11, and a T20. He is also in fine form of late, making his last four cuts, and posting two top-15 finishes. He is 35th in strokes gained: approach, and 30th in strokes gained: putting, this year on Tour. This combination should bode well for Harman this week. He is one of the most accurate drivers of the golf ball and should keep it in play to set himself up for plenty of birdie opportunities this week.

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Nic Turner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Nic, check out his archive and follow him @sportzbandit.