Best Bets for the Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead (2020 NASCAR Betting)
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As our country grapples with racism in the wake of George Floydâs death, NASCAR has done what it can to confront the issue. The sport banned the display of the Confederate flag, and drivers have used their platforms to speak out about it.
Not every member of the NASCAR community has embraced change, however. Backmarker driver Ray Ciccarelli made headlines this week for criticizing the sportâs decisions, but his views do not represent the majority of NASCAR drivers or fans. People across the sport have since distanced themselves from him.
As such, NASCAR hits the banks of Homestead-Miami Speedway with politics simmering in the background â and a handful of fans allowed back in attendance. If youâre interested in getting in on the action, here are my best bets for this weekendâs Dixie Vodka 400.
Past Performance at Homestead
Unlike most of NASCARâs oval-shaped tracks, Homestead-Miami has a true oval shape. The track doesnât bend to lengthen its front straightaway, as tri-oval and quad-oval tracks opt to do, which makes it unique. Also, Homestead features relatively steep banking in the corners at 18-20 degrees. The courseâs structure favors those who can race the high line, like Tyler Reddick, and Iâm expecting big things in his Cup Series debut at the track.
Driver Name | Avg Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5âs | Top 10âs | Driver Rating (Last 5) |
Kevin Harvick | 6.42 | 19 | 1 | 11 | 17 | 121.48 |
Chase Elliott | 9.5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 91.78 |
Martin Truex, Jr. | 10.2 | 15 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 108.40 |
Denny Hamlin | 10.53 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 100.30 |
Joey Logano | 12.73 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 114.92 |
Austin Dillon | 13.5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 86.06 |
Clint Bowyer | 13.57 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 72.82 |
Matt Kenseth | 13.95 | 19 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 97.12 |
Jimmie Johnson | 14 | 19 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 86.06 |
Brad Keselowski | 14.42 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 96.90 |
Ryan Newman | 15.5 | 18 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 82.02 |
Kyle Busch | 16.33 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 124.12 |
Kevin Harvick is a Homestead ace. While heâs only scored one here, its traditional year-end date complicated driversâ priorities at the track. Drivers that were out of the championship hunt wouldâve wanted to stay out of the way, and their teams may have opted to bring experimental equipment or setups to the track. He has missed the top-10 just twice in his 19 attempts, and both of those finishes came before 2008.
Despite his lower average finish, Kyle Busch has the highest recent driver rating at this track. That metric weighs factors like average running position and laps led, which are important indicators to consider alongside where a driver ends up placing. Buschâs two wins at Homestead correspond with his two championships (2015, 2019), so itâll be interesting to see how heâll race here without a title on the line.
Denny Hamlin is the only other active driver with two wins at Homestead, but he hasnât finished better than ninth in his last five attempts. He was only competing for a championship in one of those races, however, so take his recent form here with a grain of salt.
Both Martin Truex, Jr. and Chase Elliott have impressive average finishes here, although Truex has a win while Elliott doesnât. Both Truexâs average finish and driver rating would substantially increase if we excluded his 2016 wreck here â his average finish would be 8.64, and his driver rating would be 117.95.
Joey Loganoâs driver rating at Homestead also demands attention, and Sliced Bread hasnât finished worse than sixth here since 2014. His woeful years with Joe Gibbs deflate his stats; if we exclude those four years, his average finish would be 6.29, a touch ahead of Harvickâs.
I mentioned Tyler Reddickâs name earlier, but he misses this chart due to his lack of Cup Series starts here. But heâs a strong bet to compete on Sunday, and his numbers in the Xfinity Series support that claim.
Driver Name | Avg Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5âs | Top 10âs | Driver Rating |
Tyler Reddick | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 129.76 |
Reddick earned two wins in just three Homestead races, and all three of those races came with different teams. Sure, heâll have stiffer competition on Sunday, but Reddickâs skill on the high line has to keep him in conversations for Sundayâs race.
Recent Speed
Equipment often limits drivers in NASCAR, so itâs essential to factor recent speed into our betting predictions. Since driver rating weighs stats like laps led and average running position, itâs a useful metric to gauge how well a driverâs car has performed from week to week. Iâve limited the sample to each driverâs performances in the intermediate track package.
Driver | Driver Rating (Intermed.) |
Kevin Harvick | 114.70 |
Chase Elliott | 109.60 |
Martin Truex, Jr. | 103.83 |
Joey Logano | 99.30 |
Kyle Busch | 90.57 |
Denny Hamlin | 88.04 |
Tyler Reddick | 80.10 |
Kevin Harvick has won twice on intermediate tracks (Darlington 1, Atlanta), so he should be a safe pick for Sundayâs race. He led a combined 310 laps in his two intermediate wins this season, which proves that he has the equipment necessary to dominate here.
Both Chase Elliott and Martin Truex, Jr. have driver ratings above 100, but theyâve only combined for one win at intermediate tracks so far. I wouldnât be surprised to see that number correct itself on Sunday, but Toyotaâs struggles so far in 2020 limit my optimism for Truex. They havenât been the dominant manufacturer this year, and while they have a combined three wins, their top three drivers donât have the driver ratings to back that up â both Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin are both around 25 points below Harvick.
Joey Logano won two of NASCARâs first four races this year, but heâs been unable to finish races since then â his fourth-place result at Martinsville was his best since March. That said, his Penske teammates have flashed considerable speed, so I donât blame his equipment for the recent lapse in production.
Lastly, Tyler Reddick has a solid driver rating of 80.1. Thatâs excellent for a driver in mid-pack equipment! Of our seven drivers, only Elliott has topped Reddickâs performance in each race. Itâs clear that Reddick can outrun his stuff at intermediate tracks, so while Iâm not comfortable picking him to win, he could be a strong bet to finish top-10.
Betting Odds
Letâs take a look at the betting odds for our seven drivers over at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Driver | To Win | Top-5 | Top-10 |
Kevin Harvick | +450 | -136 | -500 |
Martin Truex, Jr. | +500 | -130 | -455 |
Kyle Busch | +550 | -118 | -435 |
Chase Elliott | +700 | +110 | -360 |
Joey Logano | +900 | +135 | -286 |
Denny Hamlin | +1000 | +150 | -250 |
Tyler Reddick | +6000 | +700 | +160 |
Unsurprisingly, Kevin Harvick is the betting favorite for Homestead. Heâs far and away the best driver at this track, and I expect him to get his second-career Homestead victory on Sunday.
Best Bets for Homestead
Isaiahâs Pick is currently 3 for 7 on the season.
To Win: Kevin Harvick (+450)
With a dominant lead in the points standings and two wins on the year, Harvick is having a year to remember. He has missed the top-10 just twice this year, but neither of those missteps came at intermediate tracks. Also, heâs also the best Homestead racer in the field in terms of average finish, so itâs shocking that heâs won here just once â Harvick actually has a higher average finish here than Phoenix, a track heâs won at nine times.
To Finish Top-5: Kevin Harvick (-136)
If Harvick doesnât win, heâs a sure-thing to finish top-5. Heâs accomplished this feat in every Homestead race since 2014! I think this is a safer bet than taking him to finish top-3 at +120, but if youâre feeling lucky, you can play that line instead.
To Finish Top-10: Tyler Reddick (+160) â Isaiahâs Pick
Reddick is one of the best high-line racers in the sport right now. Since Homestead rewards that style of driving, and since Reddick has proven capable of top-10s at intermediate tracks, this is an easy play for me in the plus money.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.