Best Bets for The eNASCAR iRacing Pro Invitational Series at Bristol Motor Speedway
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Nevada will wave the green flag on eNASCAR betting this weekend. The state decided to allow sportsbooks to offer lines on the eNASCAR iRacing Pro Invitational Series on April 3, which has paved the way for William Hillâs lines on this weekendâs race at Bristol.
Betting on eNASCAR is a bit risky, as there have only been two races in the series to date. But what else are we going to bet on?
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Background
My strategy for NASCAR betting relies on data. Unfortunately, our sample size of two races isnât very big, and there arenât easily available advanced statistics like driver ratings.
Fortunately, that means we have the chance to outsmart the sportsbooks, because they wonât have many numbers, either.
Betting Odds
Here are the lines posted over at William Hill.
Driver | Odds |
Timmy Hill | 4-1 |
Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 13-2 |
Garrett Smithley | 7-1 |
William Byron | 7-1 |
Denny Hamlin | 12-1 |
Alex Bowman | 12-1 |
Ryan Preece | 12-1 |
Parker Kligerman | 15-1 |
Erik Jones | 25-1 |
Landon Cassill | 25-1 |
Christopher Bell | 25-1 |
Chase Elliott | 28-1 |
Kyle Larson | 30-1 |
Matt DiBenedetto | 30-1 |
Joey Logano | 30-1 |
John Hunter Nemechek | 30-1 |
Michael McDowell | 35-1 |
Ryan Blaney | 35-1 |
Ross Chastain | 40-1 |
Bubba Wallace | 40-1 |
Clint Bowyer | 40-1 |
Kyle Busch | 40-1 |
Tyler Reddick | 40-1 |
Ty Dillon | 50-1 |
Jimmie Johnson | 50-1 |
Kurt Busch | 60-1 |
Bobby Labonte | 60-1 |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 60-1 |
Chris Buescher | 75-1 |
Austin Dillon | 75-1 |
Last weekâs winner, Timmy Hill, is the heavy favorite for this weekendâs race at Bristol. But Dale Earnhardt Jr., Garrett Smithley, and William Byron are all close behind Hill, and theyâve all logged significant hours in iRacing simulators.
After those guys, Homestead winner Denny Hamlin, former Hendrick Motorsports simulator driver Alex Bowman, and Ryan Preece come in with 12/1 odds. NBC Sports analyst Parker Kligerman has also spent considerable time with iRacing, and he rounds out our top eight betting options.
Analysis
So what numbers do we have at our disposal? Well, we can look at where drivers have finished and how many laps theyâve led. Timmy Hill has a dominant 2.0 average finish so far, and heâs followed by Junior (4.0), Smithley (4.0), and Preece (5.0).
But looking at laps led tells a different story. The first race at Homestead saw a lot of back-and-forth for the lead, with winner Denny Hamlin only leading 14 total laps. In last weekâs race at Texas, however, William Byron led an impressive 80 laps before Timmy Hill took the lead with just four to go.
Thereâs more than just numbers to consider, however. Not every eNASCAR racer is in the same situation, as guys like Hill and Smithley both lack elite rides in real-life NASCAR. As a result, theyâve got more to gain by winning these races than Hendrickâs William Byron or the retired Dale Earnhardt, Jr., and that may play a role in their late-race decisions.
We can also look at the real-life numbers from Bristol Motor Speedway. In the most recent four races, Kyle Busch, Clint Bowyer, Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, and Joey Logano are the only drivers to post average driver ratings above 100. Meanwhile, William Byron has a dreadful 64.8 average, and he is yet to earn a top-10 finish at the track, and Timmy Hillâs results in poor equipment give him a 34.1. Denny Hamlin (93.3) and Alex Bowman (82.8) have the highest ratings of the betting favorites.
Suggested Picks
Sundayâs race will come down to a combination of short-track skill, iRacing experience, and determination.
While Iâm not a fan of his short-track stats, William Byronâs iRacing expertise could finally send him into victory lane on Sunday, although his 7/1 odds could be better. If the line moves down a bit, Iâd take him. Otherwise, give me Hamlin or Bowman at 12/1 â and maybe lay some action on both of them.
Verdict: Bowman (12/1) and/or Hamlin (12/1)
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.