Best Bets for the eNASCAR iRacing Pro Invitational Series at Dover International Speedway
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Although NASCAR announced that its season will resume on May 17th at Darlington Raceway, we’ve still got some iRacing action in store until then.
The eNASCAR iRacing Pro Invitational Series heads to Dover International Speedway this weekend, and each driver will try to tame the virtual Monster Mile this Sunday. The track’s steep concrete banks aren’t so friendly to drivers in real life — let’s see how they are online.
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Background
If you’ve been following this column, you know that I’ve been recommending William Byron every week. The 22-year-old has won two of the five races so far, and he’s dominated at every track except Talladega.
Byron’s success has shown us that familiarity with iRacing is the most important factor in this series. We can discount equipment, as each driver gets an equal car, and offline driving expertise hasn’t had much sway. Perennial stars at the real-life versions of tracks have not seen the same dominance as our simulator aces.
Betting Odds
Here are the lines posted over at William Hill.
| Driver | Odds |
| William Byron | +140 |
| Timmy Hill | +600 |
| Parker Kligerman | +900 |
| Denny Hamlin | +1000 |
| Ryan Preece | +1400 |
| Dale Earnhardt, Jr | +1800 |
| Garrett Smithley | +1800 |
| Kyle Busch | +2000 |
| Landon Cassill | +2000 |
| John Hunter Nemechek | +2500 |
| Alex Bowman | +2800 |
| Christopher Bell | +3000 |
| Brad Keselowski | +3500 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | +4000 |
| Bobby Labonte | +5000 |
| Michael McDowell | +5000 |
| Kevin Harvick | +6000 |
| Ty Dillon | +6000 |
| Ross Chastain | +6000 |
| Daniel Suarez | +6000 |
| Clint Bowyer | +7500 |
| Corey LaJoie | +7500 |
| Cole Custer | +7500 |
| Erik Jones | +7500 |
| Brennan Poole | +10000 |
| Kurt Busch | +10000 |
| Chase Elliott | +10000 |
| Tyler Reddick | +10000 |
| Joey Logano | +10000 |
| Ryan Blaney | +10000 |
| Austin Dillon | +10000 |
| Aric Almirola | +12500 |
| Jimmie Johnson | +12500 |
| Joey Gase | +12500 |
| Chris Buescher | +12500 |
| JJ Yeley | +20000 |
| Chad Finchum | +20000 |
William Byron’s line keeps getting shorter. While it was up to +300 last weekend at Talladega, that track is a crapshoot, and just about anyone could’ve won that race. That’s because Superspeedways like Talladega rely on drafting and less on individual driver skill. Now that we’re back to a more predictable track, Byron’s numbers have been unsurprisingly adjusted.
The only other guys with odds in the triple-digits are Timmy Hill and Parker Kligerman. Hill has been remarkably consistent, and before his 11th-place finish at Talladega, his worst finish was third. The result dropped his average finish from 2.25 to 4, which is still quite impressive. Kligerman, meanwhile, has led laps but hasn’t yet won a race.
The series’ only other two winners, Denny Hamlin (+1000) and Alex Bowman (+2800), find themselves further behind. Hamlin had been successful at the first few races, but his last place at Talladega frustrated him. However, his poor day might not have been entirely his fault, so look for him to rebound this weekend.
Analysis and Suggested Pick
If you’ve been following this column, you know what I’m about to say. You should take William Byron (+140) to win this weekend’s race, and you should supplement that wager with a prop bet on Timmy Hill (+180) to beat Byron (-210). This bet would’ve hit in every race except Talladega.
The reasoning here is simple: Byron has led more than half of the laps in this series. His 327 laps led are exactly 54.1% percent of the 604 total laps run, and he’s shown few signs of slowing down. Sure, he only led nine laps at Talladega, but the track’s draft-dependent nature limited the amount Byron could control. It’ll be back to normal for him this week.
So why chase Byron’s odds to win with the Hill prop bet? Well, he faces 37 competitors on the track, and he can’t control if someone accidentally wrecks him. Also, Byron struggled to finish races in the first half of the season, failing to turn laps led into races won. While it seems like he’s turned a corner, if Byron can’t come out in first, Hill’s a strong bet to finish ahead of him. Again, Hill’s average finish was 2.25 before last week’s race. That’s hard to beat.
Because both lines are strongly in the plus money, you’re guaranteed to profit if you put equal money on both — as long as one of them hits. Since Dover is a more predictable track than Talladega, I’m comfortable making both lines multi-unit plays.
Suggested Prop Bets
William Hill also offers a handful of head-to-head driver props. I’ve already discussed the Byron/Hill line, but there’s some other value out there as well.
The Kyle Busch (-120)/John Hunter Nemechek (+100) line feels like a good play to me. Kyle Busch has beaten Nemechek in three of five races so far, but if we strike out Talladega, they’re tied at two apiece. Nemechek is the only one of the two to have led laps in this series, and he’s also secured the highest finish (second) of the pair. His best result came at Bristol, a high-banked oval like Dover, and I’m comfortable taking him here in the plus money.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.