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Best Bets for the Farmers Insurance Open (PGA Betting)

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Last week we saw a 200/1 betting outright win the newly named “American Express” in La Quinta, California. Andrew Landry won his second career PGA title after missing five consecutive cuts. Landry finished runner-up at this tournament in 2018 and despite the terrible recent form, he was able to get the job done this time around. This is a stark reminder to always look at recent course history and take a few shots at some long-shots when making your betting card.

The PGA Tour will now make the short trip to San Diego, California for the Farmers Insurance Open. Played at the renowned Torrey Pines Golf Course, golfers will have to navigate between both the South and North tracks. Atop the betting board, is Rory McIlroy at +650 odds, followed by Jon Rahm (+750), and Tiger Woods (+1000). Tiger will be making his 2020 PGA Tour debut at a course he has long dominated throughout his career.

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Course Preview

As mentioned above, this week’s tournament will be played at Torrey Pines South, and Torrey Pines North. The south course is the longest golfers on the PGA Tour will play on all season. It measures at 7,698 yards-long and will play as a Par 72. The greens on the south course are Poa annua and because of the length, it will play much more difficult than the north course. Ten of the last 14 golfers that won this event have finished inside the top-30 in driving distance.

Torrey Pines North measures at 7,258 yards long and plays as a par 72. It is a much easier test of golf for the pros, as it ranked 45 out of 49 in course difficulty last year on Tour. This course will feature much larger greens and shorter holes than the south track. The other difference is that the north course will have bentgrass greens. Accuracy off the tee is key here, and longer irons will be crucial as seven of the eight par 3s measure over 200 yards.

Key Stats

  • Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking
  • Strokes Gained: Approach (>200 yards)
  • Course History
  • Strokes Gained: Around-the-green

Best Bets to Win

Hideki Matsuyama (+1400 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Matsuyama has gotten better each time he has played this event in the past five years. In 2017, he finished 33rd, in 2018 he improved to 12th, and last year, he nearly won it with a third-place showing. It’s clear he has the ideal skill set to take advantage of Torrey Pines. Matsuyama is second in the field in strokes gained: tee-to-green, second in strokes gained: approach and tenth in strokes gained: around-the-green.

With three top-15 outings in his last three appearances on Tour, Matsuyama is ready to get back into the winner’s circle again. This event has been won nine out of 11 times by guys who have had a top-10 finish the year before, so Matsuyama checks plenty of boxes.

Tony Finau (+2200 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Another player hungry for a PGA Tour win and trending in the right direction is Tony Finau. Finau has a powerful long game and has fared well at Torrey Pines in the past. He has four-straight top-25 appearances here – including a fourth and sixth-place finish. Coming off of a solid T14 showing at the AmEx last week, Finau shot a 10-under par 62 on the second day.

Finau led the field in strokes gained: tee-to-green, at the event last year. He will just need to find a hot putter to separate himself from the field this week.

Ryan Palmer to place in the top-5 (+1100 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
This is a good number for Palmer, who has finished 11th and second at this event in the past two years. He is one of the best ball-strikers and has the long irons to score well at this course. His recent form is also extremely solid, with five-straight top-20 appearances. Palmer is an experienced golfer who is no stranger to this course.

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Nic Turner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Nic, check out his archive and follow him @sportzbandit.