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The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Atlanta for the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 this weekend. This was the first race delayed by the COVID-19 pandemic, as it was initially scheduled for March 15th.

Brad Keselowski, Chase Elliott, and Kevin Harvick enter this race as three of the hottest drivers in the sport. The trio has combined for four wins in the series’ five post-hiatus events, and I think they’re poised to keep things going in Atlanta.

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Past Performance at Atlanta

When betting on NASCAR, you should evaluate a driver’s performance at each track. His or her average finish is one of the best metrics to use when estimating a potential result, although it doesn’t weigh the strength of in-race performances. For example, a driver who led the entirety of two races at a track will have the same average finish (1.0) as someone who only led the last lap of each race (1.0).

That’s where driver rating enters the equation. It weighs factors like laps led, fastest laps, and average running position, so it gives us a good picture of what a driver can do at a given track.

You may also want to consider tracks with similar configurations, but Atlanta’s famously rough racing surface distinguishes it from other quad-oval tracks like Charlotte and Texas.

Driver Name	Avg Finish	Races	Wins	Top 5’s	Top 10’s	Driver Rating (Last 10)
Chase Elliott	10.5	4	0	1	3	89.23
Erik Jones	10.67	3	0	0	1	80.10
Matt Kenseth	11.93	29	0	11	17	98.03
Jimmie Johnson	12.04	28	5	14	16	90.45
Kyle Busch	14.43	21	2	5	8	95.16
Kurt Busch	14.89	28	3	7	14	100.41
Brad Keselowski	15.09	11	2	4	7	98.64
Daniel Suarez	15.33	3	0	0	1	72.77
Kevin Harvick	16.28	29	2	8	14	121.73

Chase Elliott and Erik Jones lead the way in average finish. Elliott, a Georgia native, has performed well at his home track — his only result outside the top-10 came in last year’s race, the first with the new downforce package. That said, Elliott has never led a lap here. And while Erik Jones’ average finish looks impressive, he’s only posted one top-10 in three tries. Both drivers’ driver ratings reflect their otherwise unremarkable performances here.

Matt Kenseth has the highest average finish in Atlanta among the veterans, and that’s despite never having won here. He’s come close — he finished second in 2010 and 2014 — but his consistency hasn’t pushed him over the top. In contrast, Jimmie Johnson has won commandingly here, as he posted back-to-back wins in 2007 (when the track had two dates) and in 2015 and 2016. However, he’s cooled off lately. He’s got an average finish of 23.3 and an average driver rating of 60.47 in the last three races here.

If it sounds like I’m skeptical of all the drivers that I’ve mentioned so far, it’s because you can find better driver ratings deeper in the chart.

Look at Brad Keselowski, for example. Brad won the race here last year, and he hasn’t finished worse than ninth since 2015. Brad has either finished in the top-10 or led laps before crashing in all but two of his races at Atlanta, and those were his first Cup Series starts here. Additionally, his average driver rating in the last 10 Atlanta races would jump to 104.23 if we ignored his first season in Cup with Team Penske.

Kevin Harvick is another strong choice whose low average finish obscures serious betting value. Like Keselowski, he hasn’t finished worse than ninth here since 2015. In the six times that Harvick has come here since joining Stewart-Haas, he’s led 960 of 1,965 laps — that’s 48.8 percent! Even if he can’t win on Sunday, he’s a safe bet to be competitive.

Lastly, Kurt Busch has some impressive career stats at Atlanta, too. He’s finished top-10 in half of his races here, a better mark than Kevin Harvick’s, and he’s posted only top-10s here since 2015. Kurt hasn’t led as many laps as Harvick, but his 115 laps led are nothing to scoff at.

Recent Speed

A driver can only drive as fast as their car will let them, so recent speed is another important consideration when placing bets on NASCAR. Driver ratings from the current season can help us see trends in speed, as fastest laps and average running position are built into the metric, and here are their average numbers from sub-2 mile intermediate tracks. Since it’s another quad-oval, I’ve also isolated Charlotte as another reference point.

Driver	Driver Rating (Intermed.)	Driver Rating (Charlotte)
Chase Elliott	109.38	120.95
Erik Jones	84.20	83.00
Matt Kenseth	70.20	64.10
Kurt Busch	88.30	99.20
Brad Keselowski	97.62	94.95
Kevin Harvick	115.80	101.95

Chase Elliott headlines this chart — he is second overall and first at quad-ovals. Hendrick Motorsports dominated the two Charlotte races, as Elliott and teammate Alex Bowman led 281 of 613 possible laps.

Ford drivers Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski both have respectable numbers as well. While Harvick didn’t win either of the Charlotte races, he posted top-1os in both, and he led 63 of 208 laps in the mid-week race. And Keselowski’s fluky Coke 600 win doesn’t diminish the fact that he kept his car near the front in both races, sealing a pair of top-10 results as well.

Kurt Busch, although he’s yet to win a race this year, has been seriously impressive in Chip Ganassi’s #1. He posted the third-best average driver rating of our six guys at Charlotte, and his 11.56-place average finish is the highest of all full-time drivers yet to win in 2020.

Betting Odds 

Let’s take a look at the betting odds for our six drivers over at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Driver	To Win	Top-5	Top-10
Kevin Harvick	+500	-112	-435
Chase Elliott	+600	+105	-360
Brad Keselowski	+800	+138	-240
Kurt Busch	+2000	+275	-137
Erik Jones	+2800	+425	-106
Matt Kenseth	+6000	+750	+175

Harvick has to be the betting favorite in every race moving forward. He can dominate races pretty much anywhere, so expect him to stay at the top of this chart for some time.

Best Single-Driver Bets

Isaiah’s Pick is currently 2-3 on the season.

To Win: Kevin Harvick (+500)
I’m boring, I guess, because I like the favorite to win here. Harvick was my pick last week (to finish top-5), but late-race trouble dropped him out of contention. The same thing happened with Alex Bowman at Charlotte, so bad luck has been the biggest issue for my process so far this year. You should trust Harvick because of his recent form and his absolute dominance here since 2014.

To Finish Top-5: Brad Keselowski (+138)
Keselowski is the king of fluke wins. He’s got the crew chief to make aggressive calls, and he’s got the driving skill to keep himself in position for those calls to pay off. Look for his luck to continue, as he should earn another top-5 after winning in Bristol.

To Win: Kurt Busch (-137) — Isaiah’s Pick
Kurt isn’t in the plus money, but he’s close enough to it for this bet to have value. This bet would’ve cashed in every Atlanta race since 2015, and Kurt’s a strong enough driver to bounce back from any trouble that comes his way. Kurt’s worst finish since racing resumed was a 15th — his only result outside the top-10 in the five races. He’s a low-risk, low-upside play to finish in the top-10 here.

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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.