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This weekend will bring us NASCAR at its most exciting — the sport heads to Talladega Superspeedway for the second Superspeedway race of the season! Drivers race a different package at these tracks to limit their overall speed. They’re so large that racing without such limitations would be too dangerous.

The sport must also grapple with its new Confederate flag ban. Fans at Talladega have already started protesting the decision, but fortunately, NASCAR has stood its ground. I hope that the decision will kick off some meaningful change across the sport.

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Past Performance at Superspeedways

Since NASCAR features two Superspeedway tracks, Daytona and Talladega, it’s best to look at drivers’ statistics at both. While some drivers, like Brad Keselowski, tend to perform better at one track than the other, drivers’ overall numbers give us a better sense of how they race in Superspeedway conditions.

The driver ratings from this chart only include races with the new Superspeedway package that debuted in 2019. Because drivers no longer race with restrictor plates, it makes sense to emphasize performances since that change.

Driver Name	Avg Finish	Races	Wins	Top 5’s	Top 10’s	Driver Rating (Superspeedways)
John H. Nemechek	11.0	1	0	0	0	69.1
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.	15.6	29	2	7	11	88.7
Clint Bowyer	16.4	57	2	11	26	61.4
Kevin Harvick	16.8	76	3	17	30	64.0
Kurt Busch	16.8	76	1	21	38	83.1
Joey Logano	17.0	45	4	14	19	102.3
Austin Dillon	17.0	27	1	3	10	85.8
Denny Hamlin	17.3	57	4	16	21	73.3
Aric Almirola	17.8	37	2	6	11	80.7
Ryan Preece	18.0	5	0	1	2	70.8
Jimmie Johnson	18.1	73	5	19	29	74.2
Ryan Newman	18.4	73	1	13	27	78.4
Brad Keselowski	19.9	44	6	10	15	90.1

Surprisingly, John H. Nemechek headlines the chart with his 11th-place finish in the Daytona 500. That’s not much data to work with, but Nemechek’s brief Xfinity career also suggests some Superspeedway skill, as he posted three top-10 finishes in four attempts. However, I want to see more before I put my money on him.

Among veteran drivers, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. leads the way in average finish at Superspeedways. His aggressive driving style has earned him the nickname “Wrecky Spinhouse,” but it also led to a pair of Superspeedway wins in 2017. Stenhouse has led laps in the last five Superspeedway races, so he’s a safe bet to run at the front.

Joey Logano has the best recent Superspeedway driver rating. That number weighs laps led, average running position, and fastest laps, so it’s a better way to judge driver skill than finishing position alone. Logano has won three races here, and he’s finished in the top-10 in just under half his attempts. The Connecticut native has even led laps in eight of the last nine races here.

The next-best driver rating belongs to Logano’s teammate, Brad Keselowski. Keselowski has won at this track five times, and while he hasn’t been able to finish these races recently, his rating suggests that bad luck is to blame, not skill.

Two of these Chevrolet drivers have recent Superspeedway driver ratings above 80: Austin Dillon and Kurt Busch.  Both of them finished well at the Superspeedways in 2019 despite Chevrolet’s awful nose, and that speaks to their driving skill. While neither driver has won at Talladega, they’ll both look to change that on Sunday. Busch’s consistency here is also worth noting, as the veteran driver has posted 20 top-10s in 38 starts here. He’s also led the most total laps at this track in the last four races.

Aric Almirola is the last listed driver with a rating above 80. He’s much better at Talladega than he is at Daytona, and his average finish of 15.35 here trails only Stenhouse among drivers with 10-plus starts.

And of course, you can’t go Superspeedway racing without mentioning Denny Hamlin. He won this year’s Daytona 500, and he’s finished top-5 in half of the last four events here. That said, Hamlin performs better at Daytona than at Talladega, and he hasn’t led a lap here since April 2018.

Recent Speed

Drivers can only race as fast as their cars will let them, so we should compare their track averages with what we know their equipment can do. We’ve got a small sample size since we’ve only seen one Superspeedway race so far, however, so take these numbers with a grain of salt.

Driver	Driver Rating (Daytona)
Denny Hamlin	101.6
Joey Logano	91.0
Brad Keselowski	89.7
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.	84.8
Austin Dillon	81.1
Kurt Busch	77.0
Aric Almirola	67.4

I use driver ratings to identify trends in speed because the figure weighs both fastest laps and laps led. With that in mind, it seems clear that both Penske drivers, Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano, are strong bets for Talladega. Yes, Hamlin ended up winning the Daytona 500, but Keselowski and Logano’s high ratings came despite their 36th and 26th-place final positions.

Next, Denny Hamlin’s Superspeedway performance was an outlier among Toyota drivers. After Hamlin, the next-best Toyota was Kyle Busch’s mark of 76.5. So while Hamlin had a good showing in February, I’m lukewarm about Toyota’s potential this time around.

This year’s Daytona 500 also featured a speed rebound from Chevrolet drivers due to the new Camaro nose. Both Chase Elliott and Jimmie Johnson were incredibly fast in February, and they posted the second and third-best driver ratings. I’m not excited about either of them for this weekend’s event, but those numbers bode well for guys like Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Austin Dillon, and Kurt Busch. Now that their manufacturer has more Superspeedway upside, I’m more comfortable playing them in this weekend’s race.

Betting Odds

Let’s take a look at the betting odds for our seven drivers over at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Driver	To Win	Top-5	Top-10
Brad Keselowski	+800	+180	-159
Joey Logano	+900	+190	-155
Denny Hamlin	+1000	+195	-143
Kurt Busch	+1800	+300	+100
Aric Almirola	+2000	+350	+105
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.	+2200	+375	+130
Austin Dillon	+3500	+650	+190

He’s not listed, but Chase Elliott (+750) is the betting favorite for this weekend’s event. His poor average finishes at Superspeedway tracks led to his exclusion from my data this week, and that points to the betting value you can find elsewhere.

Best Bets for Talladega

Isaiah’s Pick is currently 4 for 8 on the season.

To Win: Joey Logano (+900)
This line is a one for the Superspeedway ace. He’s a three-time Talladega winner, and he was competing for the win at Daytona until a late-race caution took him out. Logano has posted driver ratings above 100 in the last five Talladega races, and he has a win over that span as well.

To Finish Top-5: Joey Logano (+190) — Isaiah’s Pick
As you can tell, I’m a big Logano fan this weekend. If you make a one-unit bet on him to win, this line acts as insurance should late-race antics knock him out of the lead. It’s also a strong independent play, too, as Logano has finished top-5 in six of the last nine Talladega races.

To Finish Top-10: Kurt Busch (+100)
Over his 76-race Superspeedway career, Kurt has finished top-10 half of the time. That rate improves when you look at just Talladega, too, so the veteran driver has statistically outperformed the implied 50 percent odds on this line. While past performance doesn’t guarantee future success, Busch’s line makes him a good value bet this weekend.

To Finish Top-10: Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. (+130)
Betting on Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. is risky. He can win these races, but he hasn’t made many friends in the process. Taking him to finish top-10 reduces some of your risk, however, and Stenhouse has also finished top-10 here in over half his attempts. Barring an accident, Stenhouse should compete for a top-10 once again on Sunday.

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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.