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Best Bets for the Mayakoba Golf Classic (PGA Betting)

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The PGA Tour returns from a one-week break for the annual Mayakoba Golf Classic. The Asian swing is over, as players will now tee it up at the El Camaleon Golf Club in Playa del Carmen, Mexico. Attempting to defend his title, Matt Kuchar is the betting favorite heading into the event at +2000.  Sharing the top of the betting board is Tony Finau (+2000), Viktor Hovland (+2000), and Billy Horschel (+2000). Newlywed Rickie Fowler announced his withdrawal from the tournament because of an illness, further weakening the field. Other notables participating this week include Jason Day, Charles Howell III, Joaquin Niemann, and course-horse Russell Knox.

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Course Preview

El Camaleon Golf Club is a relatively short golf course, as it measures under 7,000 yards and plays as a par 71. One thing is for certain – we can expect a birdie-fest. The course routinely ranks as one of the easiest on Tour, and the pros should have no problem racking up plenty of birdies this week. It ranked inside the top-10 in easiest courses last year, but if players are errant off the tee, they may find themselves in dense tropical jungle. It is a visually stunning course, right off the beach, and winds can play a factor.  A major difference on this course is the Paspalum greens. These types of greens are much slower than what players are used to putting on.

Key Stats

  • Strokes gained: ball-striking
  • Par-5 scoring
  • Birdie-or-better
  • Course history
  • Performance on Paspalum greens

Best Bets to Win

Abraham Ancer (+3500 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
A product of Mexico, Ancer will have the luxury of playing in his home country this week. The comfortability factor is important here, as he will have to problem adjusting to the climate, and will have tons of people supporting him. As we saw in the ZOZO Championship a few weeks ago in Japan, Hideki Matsuyama came close to winning in his home country. Narrative aside, Ancer makes for a strong bet this week.

Coming off a fourth-place finish at the WGC – HSBC Champions event, Ancer is in great form. He shot two rounds of 67 to finish his weekend, and a top-5 finish was very impressive in such a stacked field. With not as many high-profile names teeing it up this week, Ancer’s chances only improve. He has two top-25 finishes at this event in the last two years and knows this golf course well. His downfall has been with the putter, but this course favors weaker putters due to the slow greens.

Harris English (+6000 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
This is an extremely good number for one of the hottest golfers teeing it up this week. English has three top-10 finishes in his last four events and is a prior winner at this tournament (in 2014).  It has been a tremendous start to his 2019-20 season, and this could be the week English breaks through for a win.

A statistical darling in my custom model, English ranks fourth in the field in strokes gained: ball-striking, fourth in strokes gained: tee-to-green, eighth in strokes gained: approach. This is the best form English has shown for years. At 60/1, there is not much better value for a prior winner.

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Nic Turner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Nic, check out his archive and follow him @sportzbandit.