Best Bets for the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 at Texas (2020 NASCAR Betting)
The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Texas after Cole Custer stole, er, won last weekendâs Kentucky race spectacularly.
If you followed this column last week, youâd know I had picked Ryan Blaney to win and to finish top-5. His last-lap miscalculation meant that neither of those bets cashed. Tough. So we move on to the next one.
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Past Performance at Texas and Charlotte
The sport heads to another 1.5-mile track this weekend. Unlike Kentucky, which is a D-shaped tri-oval, Texas is a quad-oval. That means it has two dead-straight straightaways, not one straight and one curved. It compares well to Charlotte, another quad-oval, so Iâve combined driversâ statistics at the two tracks. Two of the drivers with top-5 driver averages at Texas also have top-5 average finishes at Charlotte. The active driver with the most wins at Texas (Johnson) also has the most wins at Charlotte.
Driver Name | Avg Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5âs | Top 10âs | Driver Rating (Last 22) |
Tyler Reddick | 11.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 87.85 |
Jimmie Johnson | 11.73 | 69 | 15 | 32 | 44 | 100.50 |
Chase Elliott | 12.06 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 92.80 |
Kevin Harvick | 12.80 | 71 | 6 | 20 | 41 | 114.32 |
Denny Hamlin | 13.10 | 56 | 3 | 17 | 31 | 89.42 |
Joey Logano | 13.13 | 44 | 2 | 16 | 23 | 97.47 |
Kyle Busch | 13.23 | 59 | 4 | 26 | 34 | 102.88 |
Martin Truex, Jr. | 13.57 | 57 | 3 | 11 | 29 | 110.30 |
Christopher Bell | 15.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 77.05 |
Brad Keselowski | 15.42 | 43 | 2 | 10 | 18 | 92.09 |
Kurt Busch | 15.76 | 38 | 1 | 8 | 15 | 93.81 |
Ryan Blaney | 19.50 | 20 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 86.81 |
Jimmie Johnson has dominated at quad-ovals throughout his career. He has seven wins at Texas and eight at Charlotte, but heâs only managed one top-5 finish since 2018. That said, I think heâs turned a corner. Heâs put together some strong runs recently that were derailed by wrecks or disqualification, so heâll get the result he deserves soon.
Johnsonâs teammate, Chase Elliott, has the next-best average finish at these tracks. Like Johnson, heâs found success at both Texas and Charlotte. Since he shouldâve won both races at Charlotte this year, Iâm expecting him to put together a solid run at the seriesâ other quad-oval. His driver rating jumps to 99.38 when you look at only races after 2018, and thatâs with a rating of 32.7 in last fallâs Texas race.
You canât write about NASCAR and not mention Kevin Harvick in 2020. Harvick hasnât finished outside the top-5 since Juneâs Talladega race, and he has finished outside the top-10 just three times this year. His trends at these tracks are similarly dominant: Harvick hasnât finished outside the top-10 at a quad-oval since 2018. Also, Harvick has won three of the last five Texas races, and he hasnât finished outside of the top-10 here since 2014.
Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Kyle Busch and Martin Truex, Jr. have the next-best drive ratings after Harvick. At Charlotte, Truex had notched three wins and five top-5s at Charlotte going into this season. He then finished sixth and ninth there in 2020, and Gibbs hasnât flashed the same speed they once had at 1.5-mile tracks. Likewise, Kyle Busch has also performed worse at these tracks in 2020 â he failed to lead a lap at either Charlotte race earlier this year, and he finished fourth and 29th.
Joey Logano has an elite driver rating at these tracks, and thatâs propelled by his success at Texas. In the last eight races here, Logano has five top-5s and seven top-10s. He hasnât won here since 2014, but heâs a good bet to be competitive on Sunday.
Loganoâs teammate, Ryan Blaney, has a pedestrian career average finish at these tracks. However, it jumps to 13.08 if you only look at races since 2017. His recent driver rating proves that heâs improved at these circuits. Heâs come close to winning Texas twice, once in 2017 and again in 2018, and he posted a pair of third-place finishes at Charlotte earlier this year.
Lastly, rookie Tyler Reddick leads the way in average finish. He finished eighth in the Coke 600 and 14th in the Alsco 500. To expand the sample size, Reddick has one win and three top-2 finishes at quad-ovals in the NASCAR Xfinity Series. He may not contend for the win, but he should compete for a top-10.
Recent Speed
Equipment often limits drivers in NASCAR, so itâs essential to factor recent speed into our betting predictions. Since driver rating weighs stats like laps led and average running position, itâs a useful metric to gauge how well a driverâs car has performed from week to week. Iâve limited the sample to each driverâs performances in the intermediate track package.
Driver | Driver Rating (Intermed.) |
Kevin Harvick | 115.59 |
Chase Elliott | 103.65 |
Ryan Blaney | 99.36 |
Joey Logano | 92.12 |
Jimmie Johnson | 84.74 |
Tyler Reddick | 77.39 |
Again, Kevin Harvick has been the most dominant driver in 2020. Thatâs not a question. While his worst finish came in the intermediate package, heâs won four times at intermediate tracks. He finished fifth and 10th in the two Charlotte races earlier this year.
Chase Elliottâs best results have come at intermediate tracks. Six of his seven top-5s took place at these circuits, and his lone win came at Charlotte. Elliott had an average driver rating of 120.95 for the two Charlotte races, so Iâm expecting big things from him at Texas.
Ryan Blaney trails Elliott by a small margin. Unlike Elliott, however, Blaneyâs best results have come at Superspeedways. Intermediates are his next-best tracks, and heâs been especially good at 1.5-mile courses. In the six races at those tracks, he has four top-5s and five top-10s, and he finished third at Charlotte twice.
Team Penske won the Charlotte race that Elliott lost. While it was Joey Loganoâs teammate that came across the line in first, Keselowski and Blaney have proven that Penske equipment can contend at these tracks. Logano has fallen off somewhat since his pair of early-season wins, but he could recover this weekend.
Seven-time champion Jimmie Johnson hasnât won since 2017. Texas and Charlotte are two of his best tracks, however, so a rebound could come this weekend. He had a top-5 at Charlotte earlier this year until his disqualification, so he hasnât lost the skill â he just needs to follow the rules.
Tyler Reddick doesnât have a great intermediate driver rating, but it jumps to 87.85 when you treat the Charlotte races in isolation. Thatâs not good enough to compete for wins, but itâs enough to compete for a top-10.
Betting Odds
Letâs take a look at the betting odds for our featured drivers over at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Driver | To Win | Top-5 | Top-10 |
Kevin Harvick | +300 | -200 | -670 |
Chase Elliott | +800 | +130 | -275 |
Ryan Blaney | +900 | +135 | -250 |
Joey Logano | +1100 | +165 | -205 |
Jimmie Johnson | +2200 | +300 | -122 |
Tyler Reddick | +8000 | +900 | +200 |
Kevin Harvick is a clear favorite at just +300. For some perspective, that line implies that Harvick has a 25 percent chance to win on Sunday. Thatâs not far off from his actual win rate â heâs won 23.5 percent of the races in 2020,
Best Bets for Texas
Last weekâs predictions went two for five. Until the final straightaway, they were three for five.
To Win: Kevin Harvick (+300) AND Chase Elliott (+800)
I donât want to bet against Harvick this weekend. Heâs won three of the last five Texas races, and heâs racing at an even higher level in 2020. As a result, I would recommend taking him to win alongside one of two longer-odd options. Elliottâs dominance at Charlotte bodes well for him at the similarly-shaped Texas Motor Speedway, and I expect him to rebound from a disappointing result at Kentucky.
To Win: Kevin Harvick (+300) AND Ryan Blaney (+900)
Blaney is my other recommended play. He almost won two 1.5-mile races this year (Las Vegas, Kentucky), and he finished third at Charlotte twice. Blaney is bound to win an intermediate race this year, and I want to have money on him when he does.
To Finish Top-5: Chase Elliott (+130)
If Elliott doesnât win, he should compete for a top-5 result. His first and second-place finishes at Charlotte mean that I could take him to finish top-3 (+225), but itâs safer and not much less profitable to take him to finish top-5. He has finished top-5 in three of six races at 1.5-mile tracks this year, and that rate exceeds the implied odds of 43.48 percent by a decent amount.
To Finish Top-5: Ryan Blaney (+135)
While DraftKings is more bullish on Elliott, I favor Blaney here slightly. He has finished top-5 in four of six races at 1.5-mile tracks, one better than Elliott, and his two finishes out the top-5 came in two races he nearly won. Blaney needs to finish races, but this is a generous plus-money line for someone who should compete for a top-5 on Sunday.
To Finish Top-10: Jimmie Johnson (-122)
Johnson has posted a top-10 result in 63.7 percent of his races at Texas and Charlotte. Thatâs a bit better than his implied odds for this line (54.95 percent), but it also overlooks his recent decline in performance. But since Johnson contended for a top-10 at both Charlotte races, Iâm comfortable playing this line based on his career stats.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.