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It’s been a controversial few weeks for NASCAR. The sport banned the Confederate flag, fans protested, and a noose was found in the garage. Through all of this, NASCAR has gotten flak from both sides of the political aisle.

The sport now heads to Pocono, Pennsylvania, for its first doubleheader event in its modern history. The Cup Series will race at 3:30 PM EST on Saturday, and they’ll run it back at 4:00 PM on Sunday. It’ll make for an exciting weekend of racing and betting action, and you can find my recommended picks below.

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Past Performance at Pocono

Pocono, also known as the Tricky Triangle, is the only NASCAR track to feature just three corners. The lengthy, triangle-shaped track forced drivers to take different approaches in three distinct corners, including the incredibly tight tunnel turn.

Driver Name	Avg Finish	Races	Wins	Top 5’s	Top 10’s	Driver Rating (Last 10)
Erik Jones	8.3	6	0	4	5	103.6
William Byron	9.3	4	0	1	3	89.0
Brad Keselowski	11.1	20	1	10	12	98.7
Ryan Blaney	11.5	8	1	1	4	85.9
Denny Hamlin	12.0	28	5	11	18	99.4
Jimmie Johnson	12.4	36	3	11	20	83.5
Kevin Harvick	12.6	38	0	12	18	112.0
Ryan Newman	13.1	36	1	9	15	74.2
Chase Elliott	14.3	8	0	2	6	98.2
Clint Bowyer	14.3	28	0	3	11	83.7
Kurt Busch	14.4	37	3	14	20	90.8
Matt Kenseth	14.8	38	1	4	15	90.1
Martin Truex, Jr.	15.2	28	2	6	11	99.0
Kyle Busch	15.6	30	3	8	15	116.9

Pocono has been a good track for the young guns of late. Both Erik Jones and William Byron have only finished outside the top-10 here once in their short careers, and their strong driver ratings prove that their finishes weren’t flukes. Jones’ rating, the third-best on the chart, suggests that he should break through for a win here at some point.

Kyle Busch leads the chart in driver rating despite a middling average finish. He’d led the most laps in the last four races with 200, and his average finish over that span is a dominant 3.5.

Stewart-Haas’ Kevin Harvick boasts the next-best driver rating. He’s led the second-most laps here recently, and his ninth-place average finish trails only Busch. Harvick didn’t win any of those four races, however, and he’s never actually won at Pocono. That’s a big red flag for a driver with 38 career starts here.

The last two Gibbs drivers, Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex, Jr., boast the third and fourth-best driver ratings. Hamlin’s five-career Pocono wins top the chart, and he’s the most recent Pocono winner. Truex has won two of the last ten Pocono races, once for Gibbs and once for a then-RCR aligned Furniture Row, so his skill here has translated across different teams.

Outside of Harvick, only two non-Gibbs drivers have driver ratings above 95: Chase Elliott and Brad Keselowski. Elliott hasn’t broken through for a win here yet, and his best Pocono performance actually came in his rookie debut here. I’m cautiously optimistic that Hendrick’s rebound will mean good things for him this weekend. Also, Keselowski has the best average finish of any driver with 20-plus Pocono starts. Impressively, he’s finished in the top-5 in half of his Pocono races.

I’ll end with Kurt Busch. He’s finished top-10 here in 20 of his 37 starts — or 54 percent of them — and he’s won here twice. His most recent win came in 2016, however, and he’s only finished top-10 three of seven times since then. I like buying Kurt Busch as a top-10 play, but it depends on how favorable his line is on a given week.

Recent Speed

I say this every week, but drivers are only as good as their equipment. To measure that,  I look at recent trends in driver rating, as those numbers point to how well a driver is doing in their current situation. The metric weighs laps led, fastest laps, and average running position, all of which are instrumental in understanding a driver’s speed.

Driver	Driver Rating (Intermed)
Kevin Harvick	113.4
Chase Elliott	109.2
Martin Truex, Jr.	102.6
Brad Keselowski	99.0
Kyle Busch	90.6
Denny Hamlin	88.6
Erik Jones	82.9
William Byron	82.3

Kevin Harvick is having a career year, and his Stewart-Haas Mustang deserves some of the credit. He’s led laps in more than half of the races this year, and his average finish of 8.15 leads all full-time drivers. He’s at least got the equipment to crack through for his first win at Pocono this weekend.

Both Chase Elliott and Martin Truex, Jr. are the only other featured drivers with ratings above 100. Both have led laps in more races than Harvick, and both drivers have impressed at intermediate tracks. While both of them have struggled to finish races, their equipment isn’t to blame.

Brad Keselowski slots in close behind the other two drivers, and he’s won twice already this year. He’s been better at Superspeedways and short tracks than intermediate courses, however, and his win at Charlotte was somewhat fluky.

Truex’s Joe Gibbs teammates have struggled in 2020. Yes, Hamlin has two wins, but neither came dominantly. All three of them have underperformed relative to their 2019 season, and that points to some equipment struggles for the Toyota camp. I wouldn’t be excited about betting on any of them to win this weekend.

Lastly, William Byron’s lower-end driver rating shouldn’t discourage bettors. If you ignored his abysmal Atlanta performance, it would come out to 87.8, as he’s been pretty solid at intermediates this year.

Betting Odds

Let’s take a look at the betting odds for our eight drivers over at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Driver	To Win	Top-5	Top-10
Kyle Busch	+450	-125	-435
Kevin Harvick	+650	+102	-315
Denny Hamlin	+700	+115	-295
Chase Elliott	+750	+125	-278
Martin Truex, Jr.	+750	+125	-278
Brad Keselowski	+800	+135	-265
Erik Jones	+1600	+260	-143
William Byron	+2000	+300	-125

Despite his poor recent form, Kyle Busch is the betting favorite for the first race of this double-header. That’s a great opportunity for bettors, as DraftKings seems to undervalue trends in speed.

Best Bets for Pocono

Last week’s predictions went two for four.

To Win: Chase Elliott (+750)
I don’t have strong feelings about this pick. The lines to finish top-5 seem much more appealing this week, so I’m mostly picking a winner by obligation. Elliott’s dominant rookie debut here points to his skill, and Hendrick’s marked improvement in 2020 make him as strong a bet as any to win.

To Finish Top-5: Chase Elliott (+125)
If you want to bet on Chase, this is the line I would play. Elliott starts fifth for Saturday’s race, and I think he’ll be able to maintain that track position throughout the day. Since NASCAR’s return to action at Darlington, Elliott has posted top-5s in five of nine possible races, and three of his misses (Talladega, Bristol, Darlington 2) were due to accidents.

To Finish Top-5: Kevin Harvick (+102)
This bet is kind of boring, but the line’s in the plus money, so I’m comfortable laying action here. The fact that Harvick’s otherwise strong Pocono resume lacks a victory means I won’t buy him to win, but he’s finished top-5 in five of the last seven races here. That rate (71%) far exceeds the implied odds of this line (49.5%), so it’s a good value bet.

To Finish Top-5: Brad Keselowski (+125)
Keselowski is my last top-5 play for Pocono. He has posted five top-5s so far in 2020, and he’s finished top-5 at Pocono in seven of the previous nine races here. Again, that rate (77%) exceeds the implied odds (45%), so it’s another excellent value play this weekend.

To Finish Top-10: William Byron (-125)
Call me crazy, but I think that Byron can win this race. If you’re looking for a high-upside flier, he’s your man. I’d consider playing him to win with one unit and to finish top-10 with a few units. Byron has finished outside the top-10 just once in four attempts, and with Hendrick’s improvements in 2020, I don’t see that streak ending on Saturday.

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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.1