Best Bets for the Super Start Batteries 400 at Kansas (2020 NASCAR Betting)
Last week was a great week for Richard Childress Racing, but it wasnât a great one for my bankroll. Childressâs team pulled off its first one-two finish since Talladega in 2011 based on pit strategy.
And one lucky someone cashed a huge ticket over at BetMGM.
In my column last week, I argued that Ryan Blaney had a good chance to dominate and win. He dominated, but he didnât come across the line in first. Because Kansas is a (relatively) similar track to Texas, Iâm going to stick to my guns. The race gets underway this Thursday at 7:30 PM EST on NBCSN.
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Past Performance at Kentucky and Kansas
Both Kentucky Speedway and Kansas Speedway are 1.5-mile D-shaped ovals. They differ from other 1.5-mile tracks like Texas in that their front straightaways are curved, not angled, and the best drivers at one tend to succeed at the other: four of the six active Kentucky winners have also won at Kansas (Keselowski, Truex, Kenseth, Ky. Busch), and both of the drivers with multiple Kentucky wins also boast multiple Kansas victories (Keselowski and Truex).
The last Kentucky race was under two weeks ago, so Iâve once again combined driversâ career stats at both tracks.
Driver Name | Avg Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5âs | Top 10âs | Driver Rating (Last 10) |
Cole Custer | 1.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 95.50 |
Tyler Reddick | 9.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 76.75 |
Kevin Harvick | 9.87 | 38 | 3 | 10 | 22 | 110.83 |
Aric Almirola* | 12.00 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 96.06 |
Brad Keselowski | 12.33 | 30 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 90.06 |
Martin Truex, Jr. | 12.76 | 33 | 4 | 11 | 16 | 115.64 |
Kyle Busch | 13.38 | 34 | 3 | 14 | 19 | 111.59 |
Chase Elliott | 13.62 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 94.98 |
Matt Kenseth | 13.71 | 34 | 3 | 10 | 19 | 73.85 |
Kurt Busch | 14.00 | 38 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 96.12 |
Erik Jones | 14.18 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 91.11 |
Ryan Blaney | 14.87 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 101.75 |
Denny Hamlin | 14.94 | 33 | 2 | 11 | 12 | 90.45 |
Joey Logano | 16.00 | 31 | 2 | 9 | 14 | 92.58 |
*I calculated Almirolaâs stats based on only his starts in a Stewart-Haas Racing car.
Martin Truex Jr. leads the way in driver average at these two tracks. He has four total wins, and heâs finished top-5 in a third of his Kentucky and Kansas races. Heâs coming off a runner-up finish at Kentucky where he had a shot at winning â until Cole Custer passed him on the outside. Kyle Busch, his Joe Gibbs teammate, has the next-best driver rating. He hasnât done much of note this season, however, and heâs only posted one top-5 in the last four races. He has no wins in 2020.
Next, the best non-Gibbs driver is Kevin Harvick, and heâs got the best average finish among drivers with more than ten races. His Kentucky stats actually drag him down here â all three of his wins came at Kansas, and heâs posted top-10s in over half his races here.
Thereâs a steep drop-off after Harvick in terms of both driver rating and average finish. Aric Almirola has the next-best average finish if you isolate his stats from Stewart-Haas Racing, and while heâs only posted four top-10s, heâs finished top-15 in all but one of his seven starts. He had never led a lap at one of these tracks until this yearâs Kentucky race when he dominated by leading 128 of them.
Ryan Blaney is the last driver with a triple-digit driver rating at these tracks. Heâs led in five of his seven races with Team Penske at these tracks, and he almost won at Kansas with the Wood Brothers. There will be a one in that win column soon enough.
Blaneyâs Penske teammates, Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano, are themselves strong performers at these tracks. That said, Keselowskiâs five wins obscure a less impressive driver rating than Loganoâs. Both of these drivers have two Kansas wins, and they will usually compete for a top-5 or a top-10.
Chase Elliott is another good driver at 1.5-mile tracks. Half of his six wins have come at these courses, including one at Kansas.
Lastly, Tyler Reddick has a shockingly high average finish, given his driver rating. Heâs excellent at keeping his car in contention late in races, and he has found ways to steal top-10s at these tracks and others.
Recent Speed
NASCAR drivers are often limited by their equipment. As a result, itâs essential to factor trends in speed into our betting predictions. Driver rating serves that purpose excellently â since it weighs stats like laps led and average running position, it allows us to gauge how well a driverâs car has performed from week to week. Iâve isolated the last four races, all of which used the intermediate package, and two of which came on 1.5-mile tracks.
Driver | Driver Rating (Last 4 Intermed.) |
Kevin Harvick | 118.28 |
Aric Almirola | 107.90 |
Ryan Blaney | 101.33 |
Chase Elliott | 98.08 |
Brad Keselowski | 98.05 |
Joey Logano | 93.10 |
Martin Truex, Jr. | 80.83 |
Tyler Reddick | 70.48 |
Kevin Harvick has been the man to beat of late. He hasnât finished outside the top-5 since Juneâs Talladega race, and heâs shown no signs of slowing down. Of course, his odds reflect his dominance, so donât expect to make much money off him.
Harvickâs Stewart-Haas teammate Aric Almirola has been on a similar hot streak. He has seven straight top-10 finishes, and while he had a top-5 starting position in four of those races, he clawed back from a mid-pack starting positions three times. I might be a little bit late to the Almirola train, but I donât think itâs stopping anytime soon.
Ryan Blaney. The kid nearly won at both Kentucky and Texas, and thatâs after he almost won at Las Vegas earlier this year. Heâs going to win on a 1.5-mile track this season. Itâs just a question of when.
Next, weâve got Chase Elliott. The Georgia Boy has cooled off recently, as he posted only one top-10 in the last four races. Yes, he won the All-Star Race, but thatâs not a points-paying race, and wasnât on an intermediate track, either. Hendrick Motorsports has fallen off a bit from their start to the season, and itâs reflected in Elliottâs falling driver rating.
Team Penskeâs other drivers, Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano, slot in next on this list. They both have two wins in 2020, and they both finished top-10 at Texas, Kentucky, and Indianapolis. Look for them to maintain that momentum on Thursday night.
Betting Odds
Letâs take a look at the betting odds for our featured drivers over at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Driver | To Win | Top-5 | Top-10 |
Kevin Harvick | +400 | -134 | -500 |
Chase Elliott | +650 | +115 | -305 |
Ryan Blaney | +700 | +120 | -295 |
Denny Hamlin | +800 | +135 | -275 |
Brad Keselowski | +1000 | +170 | -225 |
Joey Logano | +1300 | +220 | -186 |
Aric Almirola | +1800 | +275 | -148 |
Of course, Harvick is the favorite. He deserves to be. That said, Iâm a little bit surprised that his odds to finish top-5 arenât shorter (they were -200 last week), so Iâll be playing that line in this spot.
Best Bets for Kansas
To Win: Ryan Blaney (+700)
Just how dominant was Blaney at Kentucky and Texas? He led over a quarter of the total laps, and he won both stages at Texas. Blaney has openly joked about his bad luck, but he is beyond due for a win at one of these tracks.
To Finish Top-5: Ryan Blaney (+120)
And even if he doesnât win, he should post a top-5 finish. Blaney has now missed the top five in four of seven 1.5-mile races, but all three of those misses were near hits. He almost won at Las Vegas in March, he finished sixth at Kentucky after a last-lap blunder, and he ended up seventh at Texas after Childressâ late-race shenanigans.
To Finish Top-5: Kevin Harvick (-134)
You wonât make a fortune betting on Harvick to post top-5 finishes, but youâll make some money. The wheelman hasnât finished worse than fifth since late June, and I donât think that streak will end here.
To Finish Top-10: Joey Logano (-186)
Logano has fallen off a bit since winning two of the four races before the shutdown. That said, heâs posted top-10s in four of seven races at 1.5-mile tracks, and he most recently finished third at Texas. He may not compete for a win, but he should have a car capable of posting a top-10 or a top-5.
To Finish Top-10: Aric Almirola (-148)
Almirolaâs lines are set too low, given his recent performance. He has a longer top-10 streak than Kevin Harvick, and five of his seven consecutive top-10s were also top-5s. If he can stay hot, he should contend for a top-10 or a top-5.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.