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This Sunday’s race at Bristol Motor Speedway marks the fifth event in twenty days for NASCAR Cup Series drivers. Notably, it’s Cup Series drivers will get a break this week, as they won’t have to race again on Wednesday.

Let’s take a look at the betting options for Sunday’s race.

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Past Performance at Bristol

Bristol is a unique track on the NASCAR circuit. At .533 miles around, the track is built like a stadium, and college football games have been played in its infield. Since there are no easy comparisons to Bristol’s high banks and short straightaways, I’m focusing on only results and driver ratings from the track itself.

Driver Name	Avg Finish	Races	Wins	Top 5’s	Top 10’s	Driver Rating (Last 10)
Chase Elliott	11.5	8	0	3	4	95.88
Daniel Suarez	13	6	0	0	2	79.12
Jimmie Johnson	13.28	36	2	12	21	93.45
Kyle Busch	13.45	29	8	12	17	100.03
Matt Kenseth	13.61	36	4	15	22	101.82
Kevin Harvick	13.84	38	2	12	19	102.34
Clint Bowyer	14.07	28	0	7	15	86.54
Kurt Busch	14.18	38	6	12	20	91.42
Denny Hamlin	14.39	28	2	9	14	94.51
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.	14.43	14	0	4	6	75.17
Joey Logano	15.05	22	2	6	10	99.31

Kyle Busch is the King of Thunder Valley. His dominant clip of eight wins in 29 races exceeds that of all other drivers, as he’s won 27.5 percent of the time he’s raced here. He’s even led more laps — 2,333 — than drivers like Kevin Harvick and Kurt Busch, who have 10 more career starts here.

That said, two drivers have better driver ratings than Busch here over their last ten races at the track. Both Matt Kenseth and Kevin Harvick have posted impressive numbers at Bristol through that span — Harvick has a win and three top-5s, while Kenseth has two wins and five top-5s.

Joey Logano and Chase Elliott have posted some impressive stats here as well. Logano hasn’t finished worse than 16th here since 2015, and he’s led laps in seven of the last ten races. And while Chase Elliott is yet to win at Bristol, he’s led laps in three of his eight appearances here, and his driver rating would be 104.24 if we ignored his 29th-place finish in 2018.

Kurt Busch’s six wins also jump out at in you the chart above, but only one of them has come since 2006. Kurt won here five times within his first five years in the sport, but he’s been much less consistent since then. He’s posted top-10s in each of his last three Bristol races, however, so he could be turning things around.

People used to view Ricky Stenhouse Jr. as a solid option at Bristol — until last season. His pair of 33rd-place finishes in 2019 deflated his stats somewhat, but he’s still got an elite average finishing position. It’s no fluke that Stenhouse has four career top-5s here, and if he can keep his car clean, I’d look for him to produce a nice result for JTG Daughtery Racing.

When we look at just recent Cup Series performances, we leave out the entire rookie class. We have two rookies who have proven themselves at Bristol in the Xfinity Series, NASCAR’s minor leagues, and I’m considering them here as well.

Driver Name	Avg Finish	Races	Wins	Top 5’s	Top 10’s	Driver Rating
Tyler Reddick	6	5	1	2	4	104.98
John H. Nemechek	7	3	0	2	2	99.97

Reddick dominated Bristol in the Xfinity Series last season. His worst finish was second, and he led laps in both races. While his wins required some luck — an accident for Justin Allgaier in the spring and a blown engine for Kyle Busch in the summer — he kept himself in position to win.

Meanwhile, Nemechek posted a pair of top-5 finishes in underperforming GMS Racing equipment. The rookie hasn’t won at Bristol in any series, but he came close in the August 2018 truck race here.

Recent Speed

The NASCAR Cup Series brings the new short track package to Bristol this week, and we’ve only seen it in action once so far. For our purposes, I’ll use the driver ratings from that Phoenix race as a benchmark for driver speed this weekend. Driver ratings weigh fastest laps, laps led, and average running position, so they’re more than just an index of overall driver performance.

Rank	Driver	Driver Rating (Phx.)
1	Kevin Harvick	132.6
2	Chase Elliott	127.2
3	Joey Logano	121.7
5	Kyle Busch	111.2
11	Kurt Busch	83.7
12	Tyler Reddick	81.8

Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, and Chase Elliott have been the drivers to beat in 2020 — the three drivers have combined for four wins and 17 top-10 finishes across just eight races. Unsurprisingly, their short-track speed backs this up.

That said, it’s a little disingenuous to put Elliott and Logano alongside Harvick. Harvick’s average finishing position of 5.38 is five spots better than the Logano’s 10.38, and it’s seven above Elliott’s 12.38. Although those are still the top-three marks in the sport, Harvick is yet to finish outside the top-10 this season, so his numbers are considerably more impressive than Logano’s and Elliott’s.

Kyle Busch posted solid short-track speed at Phoenix, but it wasn’t anything special. Unlike the three other drivers I’ve mentioned, he didn’t lead any laps, and his team has been trending down in the speed department. Aside from Kyle, no Toyota driver posted a driver rating above 75 at Phoenix, and that doesn’t bode well for his Bristol odds.

Tyler Reddick’s 81.8 driver rating would’ve been higher had he not gotten into a late-race crash. Reddick had finished ninth in stage one and fourth in stage two at Phoenix, and that was despite starting in 29th! He starts 21st in this one, so he’ll actually have an easier task in front of him now.

Betting Odds 

Let’s take a look at the betting odds for our six drivers over at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Driver	To Win	Top-5	Top-10
Kyle Busch	+400	-159	-560
Chase Elliott	+550	-115	-400
Joey Logano	+800	+120	-278
Kevin Harvick	+850	+130	-265
Kurt Busch	+1800	+265	-137
Tyler Reddick	+5000	+600	+160

Unsurprisingly, Kyle Busch is the overall betting favorite. His track record is exceptional here, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he overcame Gibbs’ speed problems. That said, you can find better value elsewhere.

Best Single-Driver Bets

Isaiah’s Pick is currently 2-2 on the season. 

To Win: Joey Logano (+800)
Logano is the only driver to win in NASCAR’s short-track package so far, so I’m surprised to see him with such long odds for Sunday’s race. He’s won two Bristol races in his career, and with his third-place starting position, I think he’ll contend for the win on Sunday.

To Win: Kevin Harvick (+850)
Like Logano, Harvick is another driver who has proven himself in the new short-track package. I’m expecting him to maintain his incredible start to the 2020 season, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him end up in victory lane.

To Finish Top-5: Kevin Harvick (+130) — Isaiah’s Pick
This line is in the plus money!? Harvick has finished inside the top-5 more than he’s finished outside of it this season. His average finish on the year is 5.38, so you’re betting on him to have a slightly above-average race. Harvick’s dominance has transcended track types — he’s scored a top-5 at a Superspeedway, short track, and intermediate track — so this looks like a safe bet for Sunday’s race.

To Finish Top-10 Tyler Reddick (+160)
Yes, Reddick crashed out of the aforementioned Phoenix race, but he performed well enough before wrecking to make this list. Reddick’s success here in Xfinity and proven ability in the short-track package suggest that he’ll contend for a top-10 or top-5 finish this weekend, and I’m optimistic that he can finish the race this time.

Best Prop Bets

Best Finish in Group: Tyler Reddick (+275)
The folks at DraftKings have constructed some driver groupings for Sunday’s race, and you can pick who you expect to have the best finish from that set. Reddick faces off against Matt Kenseth (+210), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+220), and Ryan Newman (+325) this Sunday, and I think he’s got a shot to beat out the competition.

Kenseth has struggled since his first race back, and he hasn’t tried out the new short-track package. Similarly, Newman’s injury kept him from racing at Phoenix, so only Stenhouse has any prior experience with this package. And how did Ricky do at Phoenix? He finished 22nd with a 61.0 driver rating, so I’m not expecting much from him on Sunday. Reddick has all the upside in this group, and while it’s a risky pick, it’s somewhat less risky than picking him to finish top-10.

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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.