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Best Bets for the Waste Management Phoenix Open (PGA Betting)

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Marc Leishman claimed his fifth career PGA Tour victory at the Farmers Insurance Open last week at Torrey Pines Golf Course. Leishman, a 60/1 betting outright, was brilliant with both his putting and short game. He stormed up the leaderboard on Sunday, birdieing five of his first eight holes. It was the second time in three weeks that we’ve seen an Aussie take home the hardware.

The PGA Tour now heads to Scottsdale, Arizona, for the much anticipated Waste Management Phoenix Open. This is the best-attended tournament in all of golf, as upwards of half a million people roll through the gates. It’s an absolute party for the fans. The costumes, the rowdy atmosphere, and the stadium seats on the 16th hole are things that make this event unique for the game of golf. Known as the “People’s Major,” there is a strong field teeing it up this week.

Atop the betting board is Jon Rahm at +600, followed by Justin Thomas (+950), Webb Simpson (+1200), Rickie Fowler (+1400), and Hideki Matsuyama (+1600). Defending champion Rickie Fowler now has three top-five finishes at the event in the last five years. Matsuyama won this tournament back-to-back in both 2016 and 2017.

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Course Preview

The Waste Management Open is played annually at TPC Scottsdale. There is plenty of course history to use, and it will help us narrow down some bets. TPC Scottsdale is a longer course, measuring at 7,261 yards. Similar to Torrey Pines last week, the course favors long drivers of the golf ball. There are three scorable Par 5s and five long par 4s that measure between 450-500 yards. Players will be putting on faster than normal Bermuda greens that are larger than the Tour average.

Key Stats

  • Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking
  • Par 5 Scoring
  • Course History
  • Par 4 Scoring (450-500 yards)
  • Going for the Green percentage

Best Bets to Win

Justin Thomas (+950 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Prior to his missed cut at the Sony Open a couple of weeks ago, Justin Thomas was playing some extremely good golf. He won the Sentry Tournament of Champions, placed T5 at the Hero World Challenge, had a T17 at the Zozo Championship, and won the CJ Cup at Nine Bridges. Thomas is the fourth-ranked golfer in the world for a reason. He will now return to an event he placed third in last year.

JT finished top-three in both strokes gained: ball-striking, and strokes gained: approach, at the tournament last year. He is first in the field in par 5 scoring, approach, and tee-to-green. Long off the tee and deadly with his irons, JT should find himself with plenty of birdie opportunities this week. If his putter gets hot, look out!

Bubba Watson (+3000 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Coming off of a very impressive T6 showing last week at the Farmers Insurance Open, Watson is trending at the perfect time. He will now tee it up at a course he loves and has succeeded on. Bubba led the entire field in strokes gained: tee-to-green last week. He now goes to a course where he can use his powerfully creative game off the tee to set himself up for ample birdie opportunities.

Watson has a strong course history at TPC Scottsdale. He placed second here in 2015, 14th in 2016, and fourth last year, which gives him three top-15 finishes in the last five years. His game is well-suited for the course, and his recent form has been really solid.

Martin Laird to place in the top 10 (+800 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Laird has three top-10 finishes at this event in the last five years. He is an elite par 5 scorer, who keeps the ball in play and hits plenty of greens. Laird has not missed a cut here in his last five times out. The number offers some value, so why not take a chance on a guy who knows the course well.

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Nic Turner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Nic, check out his archive and follow him @sportzbandit.