Best Bets for NFL Thursday Night Football: Dolphins vs. Bills (Week 2)

by Josh Shepardson |
Sep 12, 2024

The AFC East came down to the wire last year, and the Bills got the better of the Dolphins in Miami. The hosts will look to exact revenge against their division rival. Both teams are slightly banged up on a short week, and the injuries and other meaningful data were considerations when selecting wagers.

Here are my best bets for the Week 2 Dolphins/Bills matchup on Thursday Night Football.

Best Thursday Night Football Week 2 Player Prop Bets

All bets are one unit unless otherwise specified.

Khalil Shakir OVER 40.5 Receiving Yards (-113 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Khalil Shakir has an outstanding matchup and a superb receiving outlook tonight. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Shakir’s 21 routes were the third-most on the Bills in Week 1, and he aligned in the slot for 18 of his 22 passing snaps.

Miami is a smash matchup for slots. The Jaguars pumped six targets to their wideouts aligned in the slot in Week 1, resulting in three receptions for 64 receiving yards. Last week wasn’t an outlier, either. According to the FantasyPoints data suite, the Dolphins had the 13th-highest slot target rate (33.2%) last season. They were trounced by slots down the stretch last year, including a beatdown from Shakir.

Buffalo’s top slot wide receiver had six targets, six receptions and 105 receiving yards against the Dolphins in Week 18 last season. Shakir has also thrived in 10 games with Joe Brady as Buffalo’s offensive coordinator. In that 10-game stretch, Shakir averaged 3.3 receptions per game, 48.0 receiving yards per game and exceeded 40.5 receiving yards six times. FantasyPros projects Shakir to have 45.8 receiving yards tonight.

Tua Tagovailoa OVER 33.5 Pass Atempts (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Raheem Mostert was ruled out for tonight’s game on Wednesday, and De’Von Achane is a game-time decision. Miami’s running game also wasn’t sharp in Week 1. Per the FantasyPoints data suite, the Dolphins had only 0.96 yards before contact per rush attempt last week, the seventh-fewest in Week 1. Jacksonville’s run defense is stout. So, the Jaguars had a hand in Miami’s inability to create yards before contact. Nevertheless, the Dolphins’ ineffective running, coupled with the injuries to the backfield, should incentivize airing it out more often with Tua Tagovailoa.

A close game, as the spread suggests it will be, would also enhance the likelihood of Tagovailoa slinging it. Tua has averaged 35.25 pass attempts per game with a median of 35.5 in eight one-score games since last season. Finally, according to RotoViz’s pace app, the Bills were tied for the seventh-highest situation-neutral pass rate (59%) against them in Week 1.

Tua Tagovailoa OVER 0.5 Interceptions (-135 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Tagovailoa will have more opportunities to throw an interception if he’s asked to carry a more significant load tonight. The lefty’s numbers against teams in the AFC East are also eye-catching. According to Pro Football Reference, Tua has thrown 16 interceptions in 18 games against AFC East opponents. He threw a pick in both games against the Bills last year and in four of seven in his career, which is skewed by a start he left with an injury after only four attempts.

James Cook OVER 81.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

James Cook has benefited immensely from Brady’s playcalling. In 10 games with Brady as the offensive coordinator, Cook has averaged 17.2 rush attempts per game, 71.8 rushing yards per game, 3.8 targets per game, 3.1 receptions per game and 28.1 receiving yards per game. Thus, Cook has averaged 99.9 rushing plus receiving yards per game with Brady.

In any game script, Cook can pile up yardage on the ground or through the air. Miami’s first showing with their new defensive coordinator and without Christian Wilkins clogging up the middle was lousy. Jacksonville’s running backs combined for 24 rush attempts, 117 rushing yards, two receptions and 15 receiving yards against the Dolphins last week. Cook’s line of 81.5 rushing yards plus receiving yards is a relative bargain for the over compared to 84.5 at Caesars Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook. Moreover, the over is juiced to -123 at Caesars Sportsbook. Finally, FantasyPros projects Cook to have 89.7 rushing plus receiving yards tonight.

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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