Best Bets: NHL Season-Long Team Point Totals
The puck finally drops on the 2021 NHL season on January 13th, and I think that I speak for all hockey fans when I say it’s about time. This won’t be a normal season by any means. There won’t be fans in very many arenas, the divisions have all been realigned, teams will strictly play divisional opponents, and the usual 82-game slate has been trimmed down to 56 games.
The condensed schedule has created a ton of opportunities in the betting markets, especially in the futures market. Season-long team point totals have been released, and I’ve compiled some of my favorites below:
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Ottawa Senators OVER 43.5 Points
A shocker right out of the gate. The Senators are most likely not going to be contending for the North Division crown; they’re still a few years away. That said, they’re not worse than they were last year, and that’s what this line suggests. Ottawa had 62 points in 71 games in 2019-20, good for a pace of 0.87 points per game. This current line pegs them for points per game pace of 0.78, and I have a hard time seeing this team taking a step backward.
I loved the attitude and grit the Senators played with last year. There’s something brewing in Ottawa, this team is tough to play against, and they upgraded in a few key areas. Matt Murray, a two-time Stanley Cup winner, is their new goaltender. First-round pick Tim Stützle put on a show at the World Juniors, and he should be able to not only make the roster but make an impact within the top-six. Ottawa lost Anthony Duclair, but they replaced him with Evgenii Dadonov, who has scored 81 goals in the last three years.
Minnesota Wild OVER 57.5 Points
I’ll admit it, this over hinges on Minnesota’s prospects stepping in and making an impact. Kirill Kaprizov is Minnesota’s top prospect, and fans have been clamoring for him for some time now. He’s finally going to get his shot, and he’s absolutely dazzled in camp. Combine his talents with Kevin Fiala’s breakout season last year, and we may finally see some offensive firepower in Minnesota.
The Wild’s biggest issue of late has been goaltending. They attempted to solve that problem by bringing in Cam Talbot, and while he’s by no means a top-tier goalie, he’s coming off his best save percentage and goals-against average since 2016-17, and he should be able to continue his success with a strong blue line in front of him.
One final note on Minnesota: they’re in an extremely top-heavy division — they’ll play against St. Louis, Vegas, and Colorado. Fortunately, the Wild should be able to steal enough points against the basement-dwellers in the West to hit this total.
Nashville Predators UNDER 61.5 Points
Pekka Rinne is on the decline. He’s in his age-38 season and is coming off a year with a sub-.900 save percentage and a goals-against average of 3.17. We may be seeing more Rinne than some expect, too, after Juuse Saros had a rough go of it in the bubble.
I’m still puzzled as to why Nashville was in such a hurry to fire Peter Laviolette and replace him with John Hynes. Hynes took the Devils to the playoffs back in 2017-18, but his coaching style is outdated, slow, and a really bad fit for the forwards on this Nashville roster.
The Predators have also lost their home-ice advantage, and it’s going to affect Nashville as much as any other team in the league. Is there a more intimidating environment in the NHL than Bridgestone Arena? That place is deafening, and the Predators feed off the crowd. Well, except this year, as there won’t be any fans in the seats.
I’m comfortable taking the under in a strong division where they’ll do battle with powerhouses like Tampa Bay and Dallas, as well as scrappy squads like Carolina and Columbus.
St. Louis Blues UNDER 71.5 Points
The Blues lost their captain this offseason, and that’s a big deal. Alex Pietrangelo was the heart and soul of this team, and they’ll miss his leadership in the locker room. Since this season will be a challenge for everyone. the sailing would have been much smoother with an experienced captain in the room.
Secondly, St. Louis traded backup goaltender Jake Allen to the Canadiens. Jordan Binnington was a disaster in the bubble while Jake Allen played a lot. If Binnington is a disaster again, the Blues don’t have an experienced goalie to turn to. This season features a lot of games in a very short amount of time. One goalie, especially if he struggles, isn’t going to cut it.
Tampa Bay Lightning UNDER 76.5 Points
The Lightning won the Stanley Cup just three months ago. They played longer than any other team besides Dallas, and they’ll be getting a full month less rest than a usual Cup champion in any other non-COVID year. That will eventually take its toll.
They’ll also be missing their best player, Nikita Kucherov, and while head coach Jon Cooper plans to replace him with captain Steven Stamkos, can we really rely on him to stay healthy? It’s not something I’m willing to do.
Tampa Bay will have a target on their back all season long, and hitting this over requires them to increase their points per game pace from 1.31 to 1.37 — the year after winning the Stanley Cup.
Bonus
Here are two more totals that I have strong leanings toward — but not strong enough to make the cut:
Vancouver Canucks UNDER 62.5 Points: I’m a little tentative about fading their explosive young talent, but I think losing Tyler Toffoli, who was fantastic for them, was huge. I also think losing Jacob Markström and replacing him with a declining Braden Holtby is a downgrade in the net.
Pittsburgh Penguins UNDER 69.5 Points: I’m even more tentative about fading one of the best one-two punches in NHL history, but the Penguins lack secondary scoring, have a patchwork blue line, and have suspect goaltending. Plus, they play in possibly the NHL’s toughest division.
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Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive.