Best College Basketball Bets & Predictions: Saturday (3/15)

College basketball conference tournaments are in full swing, and the NCAA Tournament is right around the corner! We’ll have you covered with our top picks and predictions leading up to the Madness of the bracket. Here are our best college basketball bets and predictions for Saturday’s games.

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Best College Basketball Bets & Predictions: Saturday

Big East Tournament Championship Best Bets

Creighton vs. St. John’s

St. John's averaged 90.5 points per game in last year's two conference tournament games, and is now primed to ride its D-I best defense in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency to snap a 25-year drought at the Big East tournament.

The Red Storm were impressive in defeat in Omaha in the first meeting, forcing the Bluejays into a 29.2% turnover rate, including 10 turnovers from point guard Steven Ashworth.

Heading into the second meeting, Creighton was shooting just 29% from 3-point range in Big East road games. And this figures to be as tough of a road environment as it gets, with the New York City crowd thirsting for a conference tournament championship.

St. John's won the turnover battle by 20 in the two combined meetings, and that pressure defense should make the difference in this rubber match.

Pick: St. John’s -6.5 (-112)

Big 12 Tournament Championship Best Bets

Arizona vs. Houston

The Arizona Wildcats (22-11) and Houston Cougars (29-4) meet at 6:00 p.m. ET for all the marbles.

The Wildcats won 86-80 over Texas Tech in the semi-finals, covering as a 1-point favorite as the over (153) easily connected.

Arizona was scorching hot from the field in the win, hitting 50.8% (31-of-61) while going 50% (8-of-16) from downtown and 76.2% (16-of-21) from the free-throw line. Caleb Love went for 27 points on an efficient 10-of-15 shooting, including 5-of-8 from behind the three-point line. He added five rebounds and an assist, too. Trey Townsend chipped in with 21 points, while Jaden Bradley went for 10 points. KJ Lewis had 15 points off the bench while adding eight rebounds, six assists, three blocked shots and two steals in 30 minutes.

The Wildcats outrebounded Texas Tech by a +3 margin, while assists were even. It was a clean game, too, as Arizona turned it over just nine times.

The Cougars picked up an emphatic 74-54 victory over BYU in the Big 12 semi-finals, covering as a 6.5-point favorite as the under (134.5) cashed. In this tournament so far, Houston has split 1-1 against the spread (ATS), while also splitting the totals. Houston is just 2-4-1 ATS in its past seven games since February 22nd. The Under is on a 5-2 run in the seven-game span.

Houston shot 41.8% (23-of-55) from the field in their win over BYU, including 38.5% (10-of-26) from behind the three-point line, while hitting 78.3% (18-of-23) from the free-throw line. Emanuel Sharp led the way with 26 points on 7-of-13 shooting and was good for five three-pointers. L.J. Cryer also provided 20 points with four triples, while Milos Uzan was good for 14 points with five assists and three rebounds in 36 minutes.

J’Wan Roberts was unavailable after rolling his right ankle in the quarte-finals victory over Colorado on Thursday. Joseph Tugler stepped into the starting lineup, going for three points with five rebounds, three steals and two blocked shots.

Houston’s bench was good for just nine points in Friday’s win, with Mylik Wilson the best of the lot with six points, while snagging 13 rebounds with three assists, two blocked shots and a steal. Ja’Vier Francis came off the pine for three blocked shots in just 14 minutes. Houston had seven swats, to just three for BYU.

These teams met just once in the regular season, with Houston coming away with a 62-58 victory in Arizona on February 15th. The Cougars covered as a 2-point favorite as the under (137) easily connected.

Houston hit 43.1% (25-of-58) from the floor while going just 29.4% (5-of-17) from behind the arc. Uzan had 19 points on 8-of-12 to pace Houston, while Cryer had 15 points with three triples. Terrance Arceneaux was good for seven points in 27 minutes off the bench.

Arizona’s Love was good for 17 points for the home side, one of just two players in double digits. Lewis came off the bench for 13 points, but like all Wildcats, he struggled from three. He misfired on all three shots from behind the arc. The Wildcats were just 21.7% (5-of-17) from downtown and Arizona was just 37% (20-of-54) from the floor. Arizona did outrebounded Houston 39-to-30, but the Wildcats also turned it over 11 times, to just seven for Houston.

For the championship game, Houston should be able to get the job done. However, this is a huge number. Take Arizona catching the seven and a hook and look for defense to rule the day. Go low on the total.

Picks: Arizona +7.5 (-110) & Under 133.5 Points (-105)

SEC Tournament Best Bets

Alabama vs. Florida

The other game of the evening involves two teams who led all 40 minutes of their opening matchups and didn't even really seem to break a sweat. This is the second matchup of the year between these two squads after Florida handled business in Tuscaloosa with a 99-94 win earlier this month. 

I wouldn't be surprised if more of the same happened today. Both teams rank in the top 50 in pace of play with each squad getting over 15% of their points from fastbreak looks. Each team will also grab a haul of offensive boards and capitalize on second looks. Even with both teams' perimeter defense ranking in the top 25, there are going to be a lot of chances to score for both squads.

Still, Florida matches up better. Nate Oats' squad is analytically sound but they rarely force turnovers, foul at a relatively high clip, and have worse defensive rebounding numbers against a better offensive rebounding team. The pure field goal attempt rate heavily favors Florida and they will take advantage of Alabama's offense that funnels opponents inside the arc. 

I know it's not the most exciting analysis, but I'm just going to trust Florida’s recent play as a top-three team nationally over their last 10 games and ride with another favorite. Alabama's defensive possession length ranks 11th highest, so I expect Florida to win in the transition battle and on the glass to earn themselves a spot at the SEC crown.

Pick: Florida -3.5 (-110)

Check out all of our SEC Tournament predictions >>

Big Ten Tournament Best Bets

Wisconsin vs. Michigan State

Yesterday, the Oregon Ducks played about as well as they could for 25 minutes before the Spartans pulled away for a relatively easy victory in the final 15. The Spartans have won eight in a row, and six of those victories have been over ranked opponents.

Meanwhile, the Badgers put together one of the greatest shooting performances in Big Ten history in their quarterfinal win over the UCLA Bruins. They tied the Big Ten tournament single-game record with 19 three-pointers as they dominated the Bruins. Their leading scorer, John Tonje, made six threes and scored 26 points.

There is no denying how impressive yesterday's performance was for the Badgers, but they're running into arguably the best team in the country today. The Spartans have been dominating solid opponents for a month, and they're only giving up 6.6 three-pointers per game. The Badgers will need another perfect shooting day to pull this upset, and even if they shoot lights out, the Spartans’ offense has been so good this season that they will be able to keep pace against a mediocre defense. Don't be swayed by one great shooting performance. This is the Spartans’ game to lose.

The Pick: Michigan State -3 (-110)

I'm also going to make a play on the total for this game. When these two teams met on March 2, the Spartans defeated the Badgers 71-62. It was a low-scoring game by both teams' standards, as they're both averaging over 78 points per game. Oddsmakers are expecting a higher scoring game this time around, as the total is set at 144.5. With the three-point spread in mind, that total suggests a score of 74-71.

It would be hard for the Badgers to shoot any better than they did yesterday, but I still like them to at least hit the mid-60s in this game. If they do, then the Spartans will do the rest. They're averaging 78.3 points per game, and while they've gone Under that total in three of their last five, they did put up 91 just over one week ago.

The Pick: Over 144.5 (-110)

Check out all of our Big Ten Tournament predictions >>