Best Early Week 1 NFL Bets (2019)

The optimal time to take advantage of the NFL point spreads is early in the season. Those betting lines are based on limited information, presenting sharps with golden opportunities to increase their bankroll. Fantasy football fanatics can also leverage their extensive knowledge to identify prime wagering spots.

Let’s take a look at the best bets from Week One of the NFL slate.

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Best Early Week 1 Bets

Game:  Chicago vs. Green Bay
Date:  Thursday, September 5th
Time:  8:30 pm
Line:  Chicago -4 

Green Bay has dominated this intradivisional rivalry winning nine of the last 11 games. In the two Chicago wins, the Bears’ average margin of victory was only 5.5 points. Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers has dominated the Bears, averaging 2.53 touchdowns, only 0.47 interceptions, and 25.2 fantasy points per game against Chicago since 2010.

In 2018, the Bears ranked as the best NFL team against the spread, finishing with a 12-4 record, including 7-1 at Soldier Field. However, that was a direct result of their last place NFC North schedule. The Packers experienced a disappointing 6-9-1 season under former head coach Mike McCarthy. Green Bay has brought in new head coach Matt LaFleur, the former offensive coordinator for the Rams and Titans. The Packers’ defensive coordinator, Mike Pettine, returns to lead a defense that ranked eighth in the NFL in sacks last season. Green Bay also improved their pass defense, moving up from 23rd to 12th overall in the league.

With the Packers facing a Bears team they have historically dominated, combined with a likely Bears’ regression in 2019, take the free four-points with the road underdog on opening night.

THE PICK:  Green Bay +4

Game:  Arizona vs. Detroit
Date:  Sunday, September 8th
Time:  4:25 pm
Line:  Detroit -1  

The Cardinals made wholesale changes in the hopes of improving their NFL worst offense from last season. Head coach Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid offense will be guided by No. 1 overall pick Kyler Murray. With a bell-cow running back in David Johnson and a plethora of talented wide receivers, the Cardinals will look to score points at a high rate.

However, Arizona failed to address their two biggest concerns from last year:  the offensive line and defense. Their offensive line allowed 52 sacks and ranked 26th overall by Football Outsiders. The Cardinals’ 3.58 yards per carry average was fourth-worst in the league. Last year’s free agent signing, guard Justin Pugh, must play better and the offseason acquisition of guard J.R. Sweezy represents only a slight upgrade. The Cardinals allowed a whopping 154.9 rushing yards per game, which will allow Lions new offensive coordinator Darren Bevell to capitalize with a trio of talented running backs in Kerryon Johnson, Theo Riddick, and the newly-acquired C.J. Anderson.  

The biggest mismatch is in favor of the Lions defense, where Detroit ranked 10th best against the run and eighth best against the pass in 2018. With the Cardinals featuring a rookie quarterback, a weak offensive line, and poor defense, it’s easy to give the one point on the road in Arizona.

THE PICK:  Detroit -1

Game:  Dallas vs. New York Giants
Date:  Sunday, September 8th
Time:  4:25 pm
Line:  Dallas -7  

The Cowboys enter the 2019 season with the most complete roster of talent in Jason Garrett’s nine years as head coach. Dallas has featured a top 10 defensive unit in each of the past two seasons, ranking fifth-best against the run last year. While the trade of their first-round pick for Amari Cooper was ridiculed on social media, it certainly paid huge dividends for quarterback Dak Prescott. In the nine games with Cooper, Prescott was fourth-best overall in passing yards, ahead of Andrew Luck, Philip Rivers, and Aaron Rodgers. He also threw 14 touchdowns with just four interceptions in those nine games.

The Giants traded away All-Pro wide receiver Odell Beckham and elite pass rusher Olivier Vernon. With doubts looming about the effectiveness of 38-year-old Eli Manning behind an offensive line that allowed 47 sacks last season, it is difficult to see the Giants playing well on the road in Week 1. The Giants ranked 24th in total defense last year and will struggle to contain Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, and an elite Dallas offensive line. Look for a comfortable double-digit win by the Cowboys in their home opener. 

THE PICK:  Dallas -7.5

Game:  Philadelphia vs. Washington
Date:  Sunday, September 8th
Time:  1:00 pm
Line:  Philadelphia -9

The largest Week 1 spread naturally draws our attention. In 2018, Philadelphia was only 6-9-1 ATS including 2-5-1 at home. Washington has won two of the last four road games in this series and faces a Philadelphia defense that ranked 30th in passing yards allowed per game. The spotlight is on Philadelphia quarterback Carson Wentz, who only ranked 16th in fantasy points per game in 2018. Wentz was particularly poor in the red zone, finishing 22nd at the position with a 58.6% red zone completion percentage (PlayerProfiler).

Washington excelled at pressuring the quarterback, ranking seventh last season with 46 sacks. They were also a respectable 9-7 ATS overall including 5-3 on the road. Second-year running back Derrius Guice is on track to return for Week 1, and either veteran Case Keenum or rookie Dwayne Haskins will be an improvement over last season’s horrific quarterback play. With the injuries and personnel on offense last season, it is remarkable they finished 7-9.

The public still views Philadelphia through the Super Bowl championship prism from two years ago. Last season, they only finished two games ahead of Washington in the NFC East standings.  This spread is too high for an opening week intradivisional contest.

THE PICK:  Washington +9

Game:  Jacksonville vs. Kansas City
Date:  Sunday, September 8th
Time:  1:00 pm
Line:  Over/Under 52.5

Kansas City head coach Andy Reid is an offensive mastermind, particularly early in the season. The Chiefs has averaged 37.7 points in their last three season openers, including 40 points per game in their two road contests. Jacksonville’s defense took a step back last year, while the Chiefs ranked first in the NFL in scoring with 565 points. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the reigning NFL MVP and is a master of extending plays.

Look for new Jacksonville quarterback Nick Foles to provide more offensive balance for the Jaguars, who ranked 26th in passing yards per game. Kansas City’s defense ranked 31st overall allowing 405.5 yards per game to opponents. Foles completed 72.3% of his passes in 2018 and was first overall with a 62.5% pressured completion percentage (PlayerProfiler). This profiles as a high-scoring game with the winner eclipsing 30 points. An improved Jacksonville offense combined with a porous Kansas City defense makes this an attractive Week 1 over.

THE PICK:  Over 52.5

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Mike Randle is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @randlerant.