Best First Basket Prop Bets for Wednesday, Mar. 2 (2022)
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NEW YORK KNICKS @ PHILADELPHIA 76ers – NBA on ESPN @ 7:30 EST
This will be the 4th matchup of the year between the Knicks and 76ers, with the Knicks having scored 1st in 2 of the 3 games thus far (Randle, Barrett). Joel Embiid & Mitchell Robinson have jumped against each other twice this year, having split both of those tips. In the most recent game (Feb 27th), Robinson won the tip, RJ Barrett cashed 1st Basket and Julius Randle cashed 1st FG. It took Philly 6 shots to get their 1st one to drop.
In 13 of Philly’s last 13 home games, they’ve allowed an opponent and opportunity at 1st basket, with opponents cashing in on 9 of those (69%).
In Philly’s last 6 home games they were scored on 1st, it was a PF in 3 of them and a PG in 2.
I like the value of Julius Randle at +650. He’s taken a 1st basket attempt in New York’s last 2, to go along with his 5 first basket attempts in their last 8. In NYK’s last 10, only 3 players have taken a 1st attempt for the Knicks, Barrett, Randle, and Walker. With Walker out of the picture, I think there’s value on RJ Barrett +750.
In the event that Philly wins the tip, I’d be looking at Tyrese Maxey to be aggressive early.
Top Plays: Julius Randle +650, RJ Barrett +750
Value Plays: Alec Burks +1600, Tyrese Maxey +800
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS @ PHOENIX SUNXS – NBA on ESPN @ 10:00 EST
This will be the 4th matchup of the year between the Suns and the Blazers, none of which have contained these starting lineups. DeAndre Ayton (75% tip win) vs. Drew Eubanks (27% tip win) seems like a surefire to have the Suns score first. Eubanks has allowed opposing teams an opportunity at 1st basket in every game he’s jumped in this year. In the 6 games that Eubanks was scored on 1st, it was a Center in 4 of them and an SG in the other 2.
With Devin Booker out, it tanked a lot of the value on the other guys on the Suns. With that said, I still like Deandre Ayton at +430 to get a look against the Trailblazers and Eubanks. I like the value on Mikal Bridges as well with him filling into the SG role.
Cam Johnson scored 1st last game for the Suns, while Jae Crowder was one of the hottest 1st basket scorers in the league earlier in the year. So I’d consider playing them as well. Don’t see any reason to play the Portland players besides wanting to fade the data.
Top Plays: Deandre Ayton +430, Mikal Bridges +700
Considered Plays: Jae Crowder +550, Cameron Johnson +750
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