Best First Basket Prop Bets for Wednesday, March 9 (2022)

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Top Plays: 9 of 42 (21.4%, +35.5u) *considering 1u risk for each bet* / **value plays become top plays if Top Play is announced out**

Check out all of today’s First Basket Player Prop Bets >>

MIAMI HEAT @ PHOENIX SUNS – NBA ON ESPN @ 7:30 EST

This will be the 2^nd matchup of the year between the top teams in each conference. Bam Adebayo (68% Tip Win) will be jumping against Deandre Ayton (77% Tip Win) for the 1^st time this year. Since the All-Star Break, Ayton has won all 7 of the tips he’s jumped in, with the Suns scoring 1^st in 5 of them. Adebayo has only won 3 of 7 tips since the break, and the Heat have only scored 1^st in 2 of those games. With that, I’ll be looking at the Suns with the most value.

First, I like the value on Suns to score 1^st at +110 on some books. Should be -110 at most considering how dominant Ayton has been on tips lately.

Get this, in the last 10 games that the Heat were scored on 1^st, it was a PF or C in 9 of them. In the last 11 games for the Suns, Deandre Ayton or Jae Crowder took the 1^st shot in 9 of them (Ayton 6x / Crowder 3x). The only other guy to get look in that span was Mikal Bridges (2x). The SG, PF, and C make up for 60% of 1^st team baskets scored against the Heat. I like Ayton +490 / Crowder +650 and love the value on Bridges at +1200.

With Devin Booker being back, the Suns’ worst position to defend against is the SG, giving up 24% of 1^st team baskets against them. Devin Booker was on a tear prior to going out. I like him in a ‘get back’ game here to get the 1st look and cash.

Top Plays: Suns to score 1^st +110, Devin Booker +600, DeAndre Ayton +550

Value Plays: Jae Crowder +800, Mikal Bridges +1200

PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS @ UTAH JAZZ – NBA ON ESPN @ 10:00 EST

This will be the 3^rd matchup of the year between the Jazz and Trail Blazers but should be a no-brainer who wins the tip. Rudy Gobert (56% Tip Win) will face Drew Eubanks (21% Tip Win) and the Jazz should definitely get the 1^st look.

Despite the Jazz me expecting the Jazz to get the 1^st look, I think it’s worth noting that the Jazz have only scored 1^st in 1 of their last 7 games including 0 times in the last 4 when they had an opportunity at 1^st basket. I think there’s value on the Trail Blazers to score 1^st at +170 on some books.

I’m a believer that sometimes you have to go against the norm. Everybody will be playing the Jazz, but knowing they’ve been cold lately, I’ll play the Trail Blazers.

The 2 worst positions for the Jazz to defend against are the SF and C. Josh Hart has taken the 1^st team attempt in 3 of 5 games that Eubanks has been on the Trail Blazers.

Top Plays: Trail Blazers +170 1^st to Score, Josh Hart +750

Value Plays: Drew Eubanks +1100

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