Best Longshot Bets & Picks: Super Bowl LVII (Eagles vs. Chiefs)
Super Bowl LVII is fast approaching and sports betting enthusiasts are searching for the perfect picks to make their wagers. While many tend to focus on favorites, seasoned gamblers know that sometimes the most significant payouts come from taking a chance on a long shot.
However, it’s important always to gamble responsibly and understand that longshots are not always likely to win. In this article, I’ll highlight some of my favorite longshot plays (+300 or higher) for this year’s big game. So sit back, grab your favorite snack, and let’s make some informed, responsible bets!
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Best Super Bowl LVII Longshot Picks
Travis Kelce Super Bowl LVII MVP (+1000 DraftKings)
Kansas City wide receivers are banged up. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney are questionable (yet likely to play), Justin Watson missed the AFC Championship Game, and Mecole Hardman was just placed on IR. The Eagles have an elite pass defense ranking first in football outsiders pass DVOA. While it’s possible that KC struggles to move the ball, they have the best QB and TE in the NFL. Fortunately, Travis Kelce is more than just a tight end, he’s also Kansas City’s first option.
Kansas City will move the ball through Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. If anyone is going to design a perfect game plan, it’s Andy Reid. The Eagles haven’t faced many elite TEs this season but gave up sizable chunks to middling TEs like Lawrence Cager (69 yards), Chigoziem Okonkwo (62), Juwan Johnson (62), and Pat Freiermuth (57).
The way I see it, +1000 implies a 1/10 chance of a Kelce MVP. Meanwhile, I’d say the odds of Travis Kelce totaling 100+ yards and 2 TDs (including a game-winner) are more likely than a 1/10 chance and would lock up an MVP award for the league’s best TE.
A.J. Brown Last Player to Have a Reception on the Philadelphia Eagles (+300 FanDuel)
The +300 odds imply a 30% chance, but A.J. Brown had the final reception in 6 of 16 (37.5%) of Jalen Hurts games, outlying a bit of value here. Those games were against NYG (x2), WAS (week 3), HOU, IND and CHI.
Jalen Hurts’ favorite receiver this season has been A.J. Brown. Although Brown and Smith have nearly identical receptions from Hurts this season (85 and 86, respectively), Brown has 18 more targets and is seeing targets on 20% more of his routes run.
Should the Eagles require late-game heroics, or are simply attempting to put the game away, A.J. Brown to have the final Philadelphia reception at +300 is a solid value.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling to Have Most Receiving Yards of Game (+1200 FanDuel)
While Travis Kelce and AJ Brown should be the easy favorites here, MVS has a ton of appeal at +1200. Through the postseason, Marquez-Valdes Scantling has more receiving yards than every Chief or Eagle except Travis Kelce. MVS ranks 2nd in yards and routes among all Chiefs and Eagles this postseason while touting the most YPR.
Valdes-Scantling topped 100 yards in the AFC Championship game against the Bengals and Week 7 against San Francisco. However, these are the only games in which he topped 100 yards, but it’s in the range of outcomes. MVS also led all KC receivers in Week 5 against the Raiders, Week 13 against the Bengals, and again in the AFCCG.
It’s absolutely most likely that Kelce or one of the Eagles WRs come down with this award, but MVS will likely see at least one deep ball that could give him the edge. He was Kansas City’s leading receiver in 15% of games, and that’s enough for me to consider +1200 (8% implied odds).
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