Best NBA Win Total Bets: Mavericks, Rockets, and Thunder (2020)
The NBA’s bubble restart is less than three weeks away, and teams have started reporting to Orlando for team practices. In the upcoming days, we may see some positive COVID tests, but the league is looking to get most of the positive testing out of the way before the season resumes the 30th.
With over two weeks until the first game commences, and a final eight-game resumption schedule, it’s a little more clear which teams are worth betting on and which aren’t. The win totals over eight games are some of the safest futures bets you can make across sports right now because of the small sample size, so take advantage now. Let’s take a look at three Western Conference squads’ win totals worth laying some money on.
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Dallas Mavericks
Over 4.5 Wins +125 / Under 4.5 (-145) at FanDuel Sportsbook
- Remaining schedule: HOU, PHX, SAC, LAC, MIL, UTAH, POR, PHX
The Mavericks offense has turned heads this season, they’ve gone to new heights with the improvement of Luka Doncic and the addition of Kristaps Porzingis. Dallas leads the league in offensive rating (115.8), total three-pointers made (1,026), and recorded the most percent of points coming from three (39.5%) over 67 games. The Mavs also ranked third in points per game (116.4), third in effective field goal percentage (57.6%), and tied-fourth in rebounds per game (47.0).
The Mavs will be without Jalen Brunson and Dwight Powell for the restart, but they get a healthy Seth Curry, Dorian Finney-Smith, and reportedly a very in shape Doncic and Porzingis. Before hiatus, Dallas was one of, if not the best offense in the NBA this season. Dallas is 40-27 sitting in the seventh seed, 1.5-games back of the fifth seed. The Mavericks will face three opponents a total of four times (Suns twice), all vying for the final eighth seed in the West.
Dallas should be favorites in five of their eight scheduled games and only play three teams ahead of them in the standings. Their lone eastern conference game versus the Bucks is a negative, but the Mavs beat them in their lone meeting this season, and Giannis had 48-14-4 in that game. Dallas has gone 5-3 versus Phoenix, Portland, and Sacramento on the season, and four games against them are decisive.
Dallas is 1-1 versus Houston on the season but luckily draws the Rockets in the first game of the bubble tournament. Depending on plenty of factors such as players’ shape, fatigue factors, and any unforeseen positive COVID-19 tests, this game is an honest 50/50 matchup, but -1.5 points favor Dallas. It’s very possible Dallas wins and goes 2-0 versus Phoenix and Sacramento, making way for a 3-0 start, but we’ll see realistic and take 2-1.
| Rockets | Suns | Kings | Clippers | Bucks | Jazz | Blazers | Suns | |
| 2019-20 Series | 1-1 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 0-2 | 1-0 | 0-2 | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Prediction | L | W | W | L | L | W | W | W |
Then the Mavs have three-straight games versus the Clippers, Bucks, then Jazz as the deal-breakers. The Mavericks are 0-4 versus the Clippers and Jazz this season, and it’s hard to imagine them going winless versus both, but it’s possible. If they split one, most of those two games, most likely the Jazz, the Mavericks could hit the over here.
Assuming they start 2-1 versus Houston, Phoenix, and Sacramento, then go 1-2 over that three-game stretch of L.A., Milwaukee, then Utah, Dallas would need to win their final two games versus Portland and Phoenix to go 5-3.
By the seven and eight-game mark, Portland and Phoenix should know if they’re out of playoff position or not, and if so, expect Damian Lillard and Devin Booker among others to rest. It’s going to be tough for the Memphis Grizzlies to blow a 3.5-game lead on the eighth seed, and if they hold on as most expect, Dallas at the worst should go 5-3.
Prediction: Over 4.5 Wins (+125) on FanDuel Sportsbook
Houston Rockets
Over 4.5 Wins +105 / Under 4.5 -135 at FanDuel Sportsbook
- Remaining schedule: DAL, MIL, POR, LAL, SAC, S.A., IND, PHI
The Rockets should be glad they had the hiatus, they were headed in the wrong direction entering March. They were buyers and sellers at the deadline, deadline Clint Capela and acquiring Robert Covington, among other assets. Since acquiring Covington, the Rockets offense averaged 115.7 points per game (7th) and went 8-6 over 14 games.
Houston signed Luc Mbah a Moute to replace Thabo Sefolosha, and the Rockets return a fully healthy Eric Gordon in Orlando. Harden and Westbrook will lead the small-ball lineup with Gordon, Covington, and P.J. Tucker at the center position. Their offense can run with anyone, but their defense is the issue.
The Rockets’ back end of their schedule is much more favorable for them, allowing a hot streak to build heading into the postseason. Houston is 3-5 versus the first four teams they face, and giving the Rockets a 1-3 or 2-2 start isn’t out of the question.
The Dallas and Portland games will be the two crucial games on their schedule, and if they can squeak out wins in both, they’ll likely have a 50-50 shot at hitting the over 4.5 wins. Portland lost Trevor Ariza, one of their best defenders, and Rodney Hood, another solid Three-and-D player for the Blazers. However, they have plenty of athletic bigs to give Houston problems throughout the entire game.
There’s simply no chance Covington or Tucker can guard Jusuf Nurkic, Hassan Whiteside, and Zach Collins for 48-minutes. Teams like the Blazers and 76ers ought to reak havoc on the Rockets interior and dominate the paint scoring and rebounding. Whether or not they do remains unknown, but playing Portland early and Philadelphia late certainly isn’t part of the ideal schedule.
| Mavericks | Bucks | Blazers | Lakers | Kings | Spurs | Pacers | 76ers | |
| 2019-20 Series | 1-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Prediction | W | L | L | L | W | W | W | L |
The Kings, Spurs, and Pacers should be walks in the park this time of the season for the Rockets, but a letdown game is possible. If they let Portland escape with a victory, then I believe Houston will have to try and turn it on late for the best possible seed. The 76ers are a porous road team (10-24), and given the possible severity of that game, this could be the make it or break it game versus Joel Embiid, Al Horford, and the 76ers.
Houston’s three most important games will be versus Dallas, Portland, and Philadelphia for the over/under here. Depending on their record in those three games, the Rockets could easily be 4-4 as 5-3. Their strength of schedule is much more difficult than most teams, especially in the Western Conference hunt, but as they still adjust to small-ball, expect them to focus more on shooting at will then defending.
With guard tandem of Harden and Westbrook, not many teams will be able to contend with them offensively and late in games. I would be surprised to see the Rockets go anything worse than 3-1 over their final four games, and depending on how good of shape the superstar duos are in; they could win more than one game in the first four. I’m just not 100% in on the Rockets going 5-3 or better with this lineup and bench.
Prediction: Under 4.5 Wins (-135) on FanDuel Sportsbook
Oklahoma City Thunder
Over 3.5 Wins -145 / Under 3.5 +125 at FanDuel Sportsbook
- Remaining schedule: UTAH, DEN, LAL, MEM, WSH, PHX, MIA, LAC
The Thunder were one of the NBA’s most surprising teams this season. Not many expected the Thunder to contend for a playoff spot after trading Russell Westbrook and Paul George away to the Rockets and Clippers, respectively. Chris Paul, along with tons of draft picks, was acquired for the rebuild, but that was put on hold as OKC went 9-1 on two different 10-game stretches this season and closed the regular season going 8-2 into the hiatus.
Andre Roberson is back for the Thunder, giving OKC some juice defensively. Dennis Schroder is the favorite to win the league’s Most Improved Player award, and the guard trio of Schroder, Paul, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been phenomenal.
The Thunder have all three guards completely healthy, and Danillo Gallinari, Steven Adams, Nerlens Noel, and Hamidou Diallo are all ready to go at the power forward and center positions. Terrence Ferguson will likely battle Roberson for the starting small forward spot, but either way, they’ll be the least involved starter of the five.
Oklahoma City is one of three teams in the West and six in the league to record at least 20 wins at home and 20 wins on the road this season. Their success and streaky play make them quietly the aggressors in the frontend of the remaining eight-game schedule.
The first two contests feature the Jazz and Nuggets, both squads the Thunder split the season series 1-1. It’s fair to expect that again here, and another loss versus the Lakers as the third game seems inevitable. The Lakers beat them three times by 3, 5, and 15, so a fourth and final victory seems likely.
The Grizzlies are the fourth squad on the schedule, and the Thunder have gone 1-1 versus them this season. OKC has much more postseason experience and veteran leadership, giving them the edge here is fair as they’ll probably be favored heading into this game. A 2-2 start with Washington and Phoenix up next seems like wins for Oklahoma City.
| Jazz | Nuggets | Lakers | Grizzlies | Wizards | Suns | Heat | Clippers | |
| 2019-20 Series | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 2-0 | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Prediction | L | W | L | W | W | W | L | W |
They’ve gone 2-0 versus Phoenix and lost to Washington, and considering Bradley Beal and Davis Bertans, the Wizards’ two top scorers are gone, we can give the Thunder an easy win here. That’s 4-2, and even if they were 3-3 heading into the seventh game with two games remaining versus the Heat and Clippers, that could be favorable for the Thunder.
The Clippers could have locked up the No. 2 seed by the eighth and final game, putting a minute restriction on Kawhi Leonard or Paul George could be likely if the game doesn’t hold any significance. The Thunder will still be playing for a final seed in the final two games, and would it be surprising to see load management even if it’s for one game?
With Chris Paul being the NBA’s Player Association President, the Thunder should be one of the team’s on secure lockdown, straight from CP3 himself. The Thunder to go 4-4 after their 40-24 season seems like a fair deal even at -145. Some bookmakers have the Thunder at -4.5 wins for +110, but 3.5 wins are just too low of a number to pass on.
Prediction: Over 3.5 Wins (-145) on FanDuel Sportsbook
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Vaughn Dalzell is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Vaughn, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @VaughnDalzell.