Best NFL Player Prop Bets: Week 11 (2020)
We were literally two Jamaal Williams rushing yards from a perfect player props trio in Week 10. Did he even register one carry in the fourth quarter? Talk about a tilter. Perfection was so close we could taste it. Let’s strive for it again this week.
We’ll get right into the players and props to watch for in Week 11. For this week’s picks, we bounced between DraftKings and BetMGM to find the most favorable odds to win you some money.
Get a sign-up bonus up to $1,000 at DraftKings Sportsbook >>
The Prop: O/U 4.5 receptions for J.D. McKissic (WAS)
Alex Smith returning from his gruesome leg injury to play as a starting NFL quarterback is an inspiring story. Comeback Player of the Decade type stuff. It’s also been very profitable for the Washington Football Team’s primary receiver out of the backfield.
J.D. McKissic has been the favorite target of Smith since the latter entered the lineup in place of the injured Kyle Allen. Look, it’s not necessarily the most exciting brand of football to see a running back rack up 29 targets in two games, but it’s the style of offense we can expect to see as long as Smith is behind center. If I were Smith, following all that he’s been through, I’d probably look to get the ball out of my hands as quickly as possible, too.
Over the past two weeks, McKissic has been the prime beneficiary of that strategy, logging reception totals of nine and seven respectively. There’s no reason to believe McKissic’s role will disappear this week against the Bengals, even as rookie runner Antonio Gibson’s demands additional touches based on his strong performance of late. As long as McKissic continues to see snaps, Smith should continue to find him through the air.
The Play: J.D. McKissic over 4.5 receptions (-139 at BetMGM)
The Prop: O/U 49.5 receiving yards for Michael Pittman Jr.
A new receiving star is emerging in Indianapolis. Injuries had rookie Michael Pittman off to an uneven start to his NFL career, but now fully healthy and integrated into the Colts game plan, his talent is beginning to win out. Pittman torched the Titans in Week 10 for seven catches and 101 yards as his connection with Philip Rivers continued to grow.
Pittman has gotten more involved each week since returning from IR in Week 8. His target totals have increased from one to seven, to nine in his most recent game. Watching him do his thing last Thursday night, it felt like a transitional moment for the Colts franchise. Pittman is here to succeed T.Y. Hilton as the primary receiving threat in Indy. The takeover is happening perhaps sooner than expected.
Though the Green Bay defense has been better against the pass than the run, Pittman should be the primary target any time Rivers turns his eyes downfield. This low yardage total seems to imply that the books think the Colts will rely upon check-downs and their running backs this week based on the match-up. Still, we say Rivers won’t ignore the big-bodied Pittman now that he’s earned his stripes with actual game production. Pittman has exceeded this total each of the last two weeks and his arrow is pointing up.
The Play: Michael Pittman Jr. over 49.5 receiving yards (-112 DraftKings)
The Prop: O/U 4.5 receptions for Adam Thielen (MIN)
The last two props I’ve touted recent performances from players on the rise, anticipating those performances will continue into Week 11. For the final prop of the week, though, I’m riding with a player I feel is primed for a bounce-back.
Adam Thielen kept himself on highlight reels last week, catching two touchdowns in the Vikings MNF win over the Bears. His overall production, though, has dipped from his career norm. The rise of Justin Jefferson in an offense that would prefer to run through Dalvin Cook has relegated Thielen’s week-to-week output to more unstable territory. Given the match-up this week, Thielen should be just fine.
The Dallas Cowboys have struggled to stop opposing passing attacks all year, and Thielen is one of the savviest receivers in the game. He finds ways to get open. He makes life easier on Kirk Cousins. That’s his game. Cook will get his touches, but it still feels as though the Cowboys are the perfect recipe to breathe some life back into Thielen’s season. We like getting him at plus-money to log a handful of catches.
The Play: Adam Thielen over 4.5 receptions (+110 at both DraftKings and BetMGM)
Join the BettingPros Discord Chat for Live Betting Advice >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
Brenden Schaeffer is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Brenden, check out his archive and follow him @bschaeffer12.