Best NFL Player Prop Bets: Week 12 (2020)
We had another two-for-three showing in Week 11. Dare I say we’ve begun to find our footing? There’s still work to be done, of course. Let’s go for perfection here in Week 12.
We’ll get right into the players and props to watch for in Week 12. For this week’s picks, we bounced between DraftKings and BetMGM to find the most favorable odds to win you some money.
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The Prop: O/U 241.5 passing yards for Drew Lock
Don’t look now, but it appears the New Orleans Saints are rounding into a top defensive unit in the National Football League. Let’s look at their ledger over the past three weeks.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 3 points. San Francisco 49ers, 13 points. Atlanta Falcons, 9 points. Opposing quarterback passing yardage totals of 209, 247, and 232. One touchdown, seven interceptions. What I’m trying to say, here, is it could be a rough week for Broncos quarterback Drew Lock.
Lock hasn’t been the most efficient passer ever to grace the NFL, as it is. He’s thrown an interception in each of his last six games, with 11 picks across those contests. The Saints secondary should have a field day in this match-up. The risk in the prop, of course, is Lock’s tendency to rack up yardage in garbage time. Despite his struggles, Lock has still cleared this yardage total each of the past five games. It’s a dicey proposition.
A factor working against Lock’s quest for cheap yardage could be the question marks surrounding the Saints offense. With Taysom Hill in charge, will New Orleans be able to position themselves ahead convincingly enough for garbage time to be a thing in this contest?
The Saints have every reason to remain relentless on the defensive end as they continue to mount their charge toward peak form as the postseason arrives. Lock’s going to have to earn everything he gets Sunday. I’m betting he doesn’t end up getting much.
The Play: Drew Lock under 241.5 passing yards (-110 at BetMGM)
The Prop: O/U 3.5 receptions for Alvin Kamara
A week ago at this time, this prop wouldn’t have existed. Prior to Week 11, Alvin Kamara had secured fewer than four catches in only one game this season. Only twice had Kamara snagged fewer than six balls. In six of his games, he corralled a minimum of seven catches. Targets flowed toward Kamara as consistently as anyone in the NFL.
Then the Saints changed quarterbacks.
With Drew Brees injured, New Orleans opted for the veteran utility knife Taysom Hill instead of Jameis Winston at quarterback. Though it’s just a one-game sample, our first glimpse of the Saints offense with Hill at the helm saw Kamara’s role significantly altered compared to what it had been under Brees.
The electric Kamara was a constant safety valve for Brees, but Hill’s instinct is to use his legs when the play breaks down rather than dump it off. In a Week 11 win over the Falcons, Kamara didn’t catch a pass on just one target. It was the first start of his career in which he didn’t log a reception.
The central question of this prop is the extent to which that stat line becomes more of the norm with Hill behind center. It’s fair to note that Latavius Murray chewed into Kamara’s touches more than usual, usage that further muddies the waters as we approach this prop in Week 12.
Reading too much into one anomalous result is dangerous, but Hill’s tendencies being so different from Brees’ should not go unnoticed. I could see a world in which Kamara rebounds into his customary role as the focal point of this offense, but there’s an edge if you want to bet last week was more than an aberration given the stark differences between quarterbacks. If you want the over 3.5 receptions at DraftKings Sportsbook, you’ll have to supply the juice–it’s a whopping -143. The under, though, is an intriguing value at +115. We’re going to take our shot on it this week.
The Play: Alvin Kamara under 3.5 receptions (+115 at DraftKings)
The Prop: O/U 13.5 receiving yards for Kareem Hunt (CLE)
At first glance, this number feels like a slam dunk. Kareem Hunt is the receiving back for the Cleveland Browns. While presumptive starter Nick Chubb does the bulk of his work as a bruising ball-carrier, Hunt is more versatile in his duties. And in a match-up against a Jaguars defense that has allowed plenty of production to running backs through the air in recent weeks, Hunt shouldn’t have much problem compiling 14 yards, right?
It all depends on his usage. Hunt has cleared this number in six of 10 games this season, but we have to remember that he took on more of a lead back role during the weeks Chubb was out with a knee injury. Chubb has commanded at least 20 touches in each of the last two games since his return, and Baker Mayfield hasn’t frequently targeted his backs in the passing game. These are elements that could limit Hunt’s ability to clear the total.
I’m betting on his talent, though. Hunt is capable of breaking off a double digit-yard reception at any time if he gets a bit of green grass ahead of him. Some weeks, he soars above this kind of output in the receiving game. Given that any one play could be the play on which Hunt finds 14 yards and a first down out of the backfield, I’m taking him for a sturdy Sunday against Jacksonville.
The Play: Kareem Hunt over 13.5 receiving yards (-112 at DraftKings)
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Brenden Schaeffer is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Brenden, check out his archive and follow him @bschaeffer12.