Best NFL Player Prop Bets: Week 3 (2020)
What’s better than betting on the games every Sunday? Calling your shot on performances by individual players. Each week, I’ll lock in on my favorite player props for the NFL slate in an article for BettingPros.
Let’s get right into game players and props to watch for on Sunday in Week 3. This week, each of our player prop betting lines can be found at DraftKings Sportsbook.
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The Prop: O/U 77.5 rushing yards for Jonathan Taylor vs. NYJ
The Jonathan Taylor Show is now screening in Indianapolis.
Nobody denied this kid’s talent coming out of the University of Wisconsin, and the Colts knew they were getting a good one when they drafted Taylor as the third running back off the board with the 41st overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. Analysts tempered early-season expectations for the rookie rusher based on questions about his initial workload in a backfield that returned Marlon Mack and pass-catching specialist Nyheim Hines. Mack’s early Achilles injury, however, opened the door for the team to unleash Taylor sooner than expected.
Indy did just that in Week 2 against Minnesota, as Taylor answered the bell as a workhorse thoroughbred for the Colts in his second-career professional game. In a convincing win for Indianapolis, Taylor toted the rock 26 times, breaking the 100-yard plateau and finding pay-dirt from five yards out to open the scoring for Frank Reich’s squad. Though Jordan Wilkins siphoned nine carries from Taylor in garbage time, Taylor’s featured role in Reich’s game plan was evident. Nyheim Hines could see more snaps in Week 3 against the Jets, but New York’s banged-up offense isn’t going to keep pace for long. This should be another positive game script for the Colts.
In those situations, we like Taylor to continue to feast. Though New York is stronger up front than in the secondary, San Francisco’s Raheem Mostert and Jerick McKinnon gashed them for huge plays on the ground last week. This feels like another week for the Colts to feed Taylor as they salt away a victory. The rookie should clear 77.5 rushing yards on his way to another game in which he approaches triple-digits on the ground.
The Play: Over 77.5 rushing yards – Jonathan Taylor (-112)
The Prop: O/U 64.5 receiving yards for Diontae Johnson vs. HOU
Are the Pittsburgh Steelers thrilled to have Ben Roethlisberger back, or what?
Pittsburgh’s quarterback play was downright unwatchable last season as Big Ben missed the bulk of the season following elbow surgery. Behind a nasty defensive unit, the Steelers miraculously managed an 8-8 record with the likes of Mason Rudolph and Devlin “Duck†Hodges behind center. This year, the Steelers offense is back—and Diontae Johnson’s star is rising with it.
Even with poor quarterback play, Johnson compiled a respectable rookie campaign, logging 59 receptions for 680 yards and five touchdowns. With a quality veteran gunslinger back in command of the Pittsburgh attack this season, though, Johnson has immediately elevated into a bona fide passing game threat alongside JuJu Smith-Schuster. Through two weeks, the 24-year-old is delivering his best Antonio Brown impersonation in the Steelers offense. Johnson has already caught 14 balls for 149 yards on a whopping 23 targets.
In Week 3, Johnson and the Steelers face a Houston defense that has been forced to run the gauntlet. The Texans have tangled with Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson in consecutive weeks to open the year. Sammy Watkins (Week 1) was the only receiver to face Houston and hit the over on Johnson’s line of 64.5 yards. With the way Jackson’s Ravens spread the ball around, though, they didn’t require any big receiving performances to oust the Texans.
I’m calling a bounce-back effort for Deshaun Watson, so I don’t see the Steelers simply letting the air out of the ball in the second half. Ben’s going to throw, and when he does, he’s going to find more of Diontae Johnson. I don’t plan on fading the ascending play-maker any time soon. With an attainable yardage total given Johnson’s recent target volume, this feels like a prop to attack with confidence.
The Play: Over 64.5 receiving yards – Diontae Johnson (-112)
The Prop: Mitchell Trubisky O/U 1.5 passing touchdowns vs. ATL
The Atlanta Falcons defense is going to get Dan Quinn fired.
The total points scored in each of the first two Falcons games were eye-popping: 63 and 79; Atlanta, of course, lost both games. Their two opponents combined for 78 points. Then there was that whole onside kick debacle by the special teamers. Yeah, it hasn’t been pretty.
Given the friendliness on display by the Falcons defense, 47.5 points feels a little low for this week’s total against the Bears. Now, let’s get the obvious out of the way: Mitchell Trubisky is not Russell Wilson. He’s not Dak Prescott. The Bears are neither the Seahawks nor the Cowboys, offensively. But behind a competent-enough Trubisky and a resurgent run game anchored by sophomore rusher David Montgomery, the Bears have moved the ball adequately on their way to a 2-0 start.
In order to remain undefeated, though, they might have to win a shootout this week. Though the Bears are solid defensively, it’s difficult to slow down the high-flying Falcons offense in their dome. That could force Trubisky to air it out Sunday—which again, hasn’t been an issue for anyone facing the Falcons lately. Though there’s some risk the Bears signal-caller could use his legs at the goal line, he’s found plenty of passing work in that area of the field this season. Trubisky has chucked five passing scores through the first two weeks.
In a game that should clear the total of 47.5, I like Trubisky against the reeling Falcons secondary.
The Play: Over 1.5 passing touchdowns for Mitchell Trubisky (-109)
Parlay odds on this week’s picks: +587
Bonus longshot of the week: Jeff Wilson Jr. of San Francisco, 2+ touchdowns (admittedly not a great return on investment at DraftKings at +600)
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Brenden Schaeffer is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Brenden, check out his archive and follow him @bschaeffer12.