Best NFL Player Prop Bets: Week 4 (2020)
What’s better than betting on the games every Sunday? Calling your shot on performances by individual players. Each week, I’ll lock in on my favorite player props for the NFL slate in an article for BettingPros.
We nailed our bonus longshot prop in Week 3, as 49ers RB Jeff Wilson Jr. twice found the end zone in a win over the Jets. We took some tough losses on our other props, as Diontae Johnson left his game early with a concussion and Mitchell Trubisky was replaced mid-game by Nick Foles. But a couple of bad beats won’t keep us from getting back on the horse this week!
Let’s get right into the players and props to watch for on Sunday in Week 4. This week, each of our player prop betting lines can be found at DraftKings Sportsbook.
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The Prop: O/U 67.5 rushing yards for Darrell Henderson (LAR)
With the Rams scheduled to encounter a reeling Giants team that has averaged just 14 points per game so far this season, Week 3 is a potential smash spot for running back Darrell Henderson. But real quick, let’s acknowledge the risk of this prop.
If he doesn’t see more of the field, it’s possible Henderson’s Week 3 effort isn’t sustainable. That’s because his robust box score helped mask the reality of his mere 49% snap share. With Cam Akers inactive, Malcolm Brown still found his way onto the field about half the time for the Rams. Henderson was far more productive, averaging close to six yards per carry en route to a 114-yard rushing day. Brown accrued just 19 yards on seven totes.
With Akers ruled out once again, the backfield should remain a split between Henderson and Brown. But in a game script that should heavily favor the run game (DraftKings has Los Angeles as massive 13.5 point favorites over New York), Henderson figures to be the leading man over Brown, whom the team prefers in pass protection. Though Jared Goff may throw early to build a nice cushion, there shouldn’t be much incentive for Sean McVay’s group to continue passing down the stretch. That’s where Henderson can shine, churning out yardage as LA salts away the victory.
Given his likely volume and YPC expectations, this prop seems almost too easy.
The Play: Over 67.5 rushing yards — Darrell Henderson (-130)
The Prop: O/U 81.5 receiving yards for Amari Cooper (DAL)
Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott has already thrown for nearly 1,200 yards through three weeks as Dallas’ poor defense has invited the team into a couple of early-season shootouts. So far, this has meant plenty of goodies to go around for Dallas’ numerous pass-catchers. The pace this week against Cleveland, however, could run alternative to what the Cowboys have recently seen.
Though Prescott has shown the ability to air it out when needed, this could be the week the Cowboys rely more heavily on the ground game and Ezekiel Elliott. With Dallas favored, a focus on ball control could limit opportunities for the Cowboys electrifying receiving corps. If that’s the case, it’s hard to imagine there will be enough volume to feed everyone in the offense Sunday. I’m bracing for an underwhelming day for CeeDee Lamb, but Amari Cooper is another Cowboys receiver who may have a hard time leaping off the box score. And a leap is what he’d need to clear a lofty total of 81.5 receiving yards.
When it comes to players props, fading talented players isn’t usually my style. It’s time to zig where I typically zag. With Michael Gallup looking to stay relevant off a breakout performance in Week 3, and with a possible adjustment to this game’s pace, I’m not sure Cooper will get the targets he needs to safely clear this number.
The Play: Under 81.5 receiving yards — Amari Cooper (-112)
The Prop: O/U 94.5 rushing plus receiving yards for Mike Davis (CAR)
Mike Davis is not Christian McCaffrey, but he’s all the Panthers have got right now. Evidently, that’s going to have to be good enough. Given his usage, it’s clear Carolina wants to use Davis in the CMC role as a focal point of the offense.
We got a glimpse of it in Week 2 when Davis subbed in for the injured superstar and caught eight balls for 74 yards. As the team’s starter in Week 3, he kept up his production through the air as a favored target of Teddy Bridgewater, grabbing another eight receptions for 45 yards. He also chipped in 46 yards and a touchdown on the ground against a stout Chargers defense.
The match-up for the 27-year-old sure-handed journeyman in Week 4 is a manageable one against the Cardinals. Though Arizona’s defense hasn’t permitted any massive rushing games yet this season, the ground is not necessarily how Davis accumulates the bulk of his gains. As the Panthers look to keep pace with Kyler Murray’s Cardinals, Bridgewater should be forced into high passing volume. That benefits Davis as a key piece of the offense. He should find plenty of room to eat in a high-volume role once again this week.
The Panthers didn’t really change their offense following the high-ankle sprain for McCaffrey. Instead, they essentially inserted Davis into the same role and told him to get ‘er done. He might not have CMC’s talent, but with the volume he’s expected to receive, Davis has enough juice to make noise again in Week 4. Whether his yards come on the ground or through the air is irrelevant for this player prop. That’s why I like it.
The Play: Over 94.5 rushing plus receiving yards — Mike Davis (-112)
Parlay odds on this week’s picks: +534
Bonus longshot of the week: Rob Gronkowski (TB) to score a touchdown plus Bucs win vs. Chargers (+475)
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Brenden Schaeffer is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Brenden, check out his archive and follow him @bschaeffer12.