Best NFL Player Prop Bets: Week 5 (2020)
Folks, we owe you an apology. Last week we recommended in this space that you put your money into a prop involving a Rams running back. That, we now realize, was a fool’s errand. Sean McVay is going to keep us guessing all year long with that committee—and hey, Cam Akers joins the fray this week! We promise not to touch that situation with a 10-foot pole.
Let’s get right into the players and props to watch for in Week 5. This week, each of our player prop betting lines can be found at DraftKings Sportsbook.
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The Prop: O/U 1.5 passing touchdowns for Joe Burrow (CIN)
It’s time for the young buck to assert himself.
Joe Burrow has had an impressive start to his fledgling NFL career. He’s limited mistakes. He’s moved the ball. He’s put his team in a position to win games. This week, though, he takes on Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in his toughest test yet.
The Baltimore defense is historically a difficult match-up for opposing offenses and coming into the season, I’d have had this divisional rivalry game pegged as one in which to fade the rookie. But as I mentioned, Burrow hasn’t flinched through his first four games in the league. He’s more than held his own, having led the Bengals to a 1-2-1 start despite the team’s still troublesome defense. Narrowing the focus to his last three games, Burrow has thrown for six touchdowns and at least 300 yards in each.
On the other side, the Ravens defense hasn’t been totally impossible to throw against. For one, Patrick Mahomes thrashed Baltimore for 385 yards and four scores in Week 3. Of course, that outing by the top gunslinger in the league shouldn’t necessarily color our expectations for Burrow. That Dwayne Haskins also found moderate success against Baltimore, throwing for 314 yards last week, is more relevant. Though Haskins didn’t strike for any scores through the air, Burrow’s a better player—only one of the two players still has his starting job. More on that in a moment.
Burrow will look to match Jackson blow-for-blow Sunday. I’m skeptical of whether he can lead the Bengals to an upset win, but Burrow could still walk away as a storyline of the weekend with a strong performance against an elite AFC North foe. We’re taking the touchdowns and the enticingly favorable ROI for this prop at DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Play: Joe Burrow over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+117)
The Prop: O/U 2.5 receptions for Antonio Gibson (WAS)
Other than its current standing in second place in the NFC East, the Washington Football Team doesn’t have a lot going for it right now. Washington has dropped three straight and will replace its starting quarterback Dwayne Haskins this week. Kyle Allen is the new starter, and well, when your grand plan is to replace your starter with Kyle Allen, your chances of salvaging the season don’t feel particularly promising.
All that aside, the Football Team does have an exciting rookie around which to build its offense for the future. Antonio Gibson has scored touchdowns in three straight games, and in Week 4, he finally emerged as the receiving threat analysts anticipated he could be coming out of the University of Memphis. In a loss to the Ravens, Gibson caught four of five targets and flashed big-play ability, compiling 82 yards through the air.
For a Washington team that doesn’t find itself with many leads, Gibson’s weekly floor as a rusher is shaky, susceptible to game script. That concept could bear out again this week in a match-up against the Los Angeles Rams. With Washington as a 7.5 point underdog, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the team forced to lean on Kyle Allen’s arm to keep them in the game.
That’s, uh, not great for the Football Team. It could be beneficial, though, for Gibson’s prospects through the air. The team has finally begun using the former collegiate wide receiver in the passing game. Now it plans to employ a lesser-armed quarterback in the starting role. If Allen knows what’s good for him, he’ll alternate between throwing to Terry McLaurin downfield and checking it down to the talented rookie runner this Sunday. With the line set at just 2.5 receptions for Gibson, we like the over in a game script that supports Gibson’s heavy involvement in the passing game. While you’re at it, consider smashing the over 18.5 receiving yards (-152) for Gibson, too. His per-catch average last week was 20.5 yards. It might only take one well-timed reception for that total to clear.
The Play: Antonio Gibson over 2.5 receptions (-124)
The Prop: O/U 34.5 receiving yards for Dalton Schultz (DAL)
Are we confident the Cowboys are physically capable of a blowout win, at this point? I’m not sure it matters that Dallas faces the lowly New York Giants this week—the ‘Boys are addicted to shootouts. Perhaps Daniel Jones will be the beneficiary in Week 5.
Last week in this space, I faded Amari Cooper’s lofty yardage total. I figured the Cowboys would finally play a respectable game defensively. If the Browns couldn’t keep up, there would be no reason for Dallas to keep airing it out all game. Finally, Zeke would get his chance to shine. Well… Whoops.
The Cowboys’ defense was atrocious once again. If not for Dak Prescott throwing for over 500 yards, things would have looked even worse than the 49-38 defeat they suffered. So, I’m going the opposite direction this week, assuming the Cowboys will once again continue to throw for four quarters. Rather than latch onto one among the team’s wide receiver trio, though, I’m looking toward the tight end that has consistently found himself on Dak’s radar.
Following the opening-week injury to Blake Jarwin, it’s been Dalton Schultz that has emerged as a reliable weapon at the position. The 24-year-old out of Stanford has averaged eight targets per game while serving as the primary tight end from Weeks 2 through 4. In those three games, Schultz has posted yardage totals of 88, 48 and 72. I’m ready to buy into the fact that he’s not going to evaporate from this passing game.
If I’m a week late to the ‘Ezekiel Elliott Game’ prediction, so be it. If the Cowboys keep throwing, 34.5 yards feels rather low for Schultz. He has been consistent since stepping into the sizable role the team had planned for Jarwin.
The Play: Dalton Schultz over 34.5 receiving yards (-112)
Parlay odds on this week’s picks: +642
Bonus longshot of the week: RB Anthony McFarland (PIT) to score a touchdown (+1200)
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