Best NFL Player Prop Bets: Week 6 (2020)
Joe Burrow had a nightmarish day against the Ravens. A gruesome injury to Dak Prescott helped label Dalton Schultz’s prop a failure. Let’s try to get over last week’s losing effort with some hot props for this weekend.
We’ll get right into the players and props to watch for in Week 6. This week, each of our player prop betting lines can be found at DraftKings Sportsbook.
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The Prop: O/U 5.5 receptions for Mike Davis (CAR)
The last time we included Mike Davis on our list of player prop bets, he cashed for us. While the combined rushing and receiving yards prop worked for us previously, the book has caught onto the value. They raised the number on us. Davis is certainly capable of crashing the over on his current total of 105.5 yards Sunday, but that’s a hefty number given the match-up. A simple gamble on his passing game work would seem a safer bet against a tough Bears defense.
In a contest billed as a revenge game for the former Bear, Davis should benefit from constant looks from Teddy Checkdown Sunday. In three starts since Christian McCaffrey landed on Injured Reserve, Davis has caught a total of 23 passes on 25 targets. There’s no reason for Carolina to stray from that trend in Week 6. Against a Chicago defense that could conceivably limit Davis’ effectiveness on the ground, expect the Panthers to play to the veteran back’s strengths through the air to keep him involved in the offense.
Though it feels like this game could turn into a low-scoring slog, Carolina’s defense has allowed 30 points in three of five games this season. If the Bears find some juice offensively, it would only further bolster a robust reception total for Davis.
The Play: Mike Davis over 5.5 receptions (+122)
The Prop: O/U 49.5 rushing yards for Lamar Jackson (BAL)
Is everything okay with Lamar Jackson?
Though Jackson has historically made a home on highlight reels showcasing his dazzling rushing ability, that wasn’t the case in Week 5. After the Ravens star quarterback missed practiced Wednesday and Thursday with a “non-serious†knee injury, Jackson simply didn’t run the ball come Sunday. His two carries beyond the line of scrimmage were a career-low as an NFL starter.
Now, the Ravens defeated the Bengals handily, 27-3. There wasn’t much of a need for Jackson to force the rushing element of his game into the team’s offense. But it’s worth wondering whether the balky knee could still be a factor when he takes on the Philadelphia Eagles this week.
I realize these could end up as famous last words–Jackson could absolutely smash the 49.5 rushing yards on a single scramble in the first quarter. It’s easy to imagine how I end up with egg on my face, here. But unless Jackson flashes that speed early, I could envision a similar scenario to last week because of the game script. Baltimore stands as a 9.5-point favorite over Philly as of this writing. If Jackson doesn’t need to run to secure the win, perhaps he let’s his teammates carry the load. Maybe it’s a Gus Edwards game.
Given Baltimore’s strength defensively, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Ravens put things out of reach early. Such a scenario would allow Jackson to once again downshift into a game-manager role. Though he insists his health is sound, this could be another week in which Jackson coasts, saving his higher gear for when he really needs it.
The Play: Lamar Jackson under 49.5 rushing yards (-112)
The Prop: O/U A.J. Brown 64.5 receiving yards (TEN)
The COVID outbreak within the Tennessee Titans organization caused headaches around the NFL in recent weeks, but it actually didn’t work out too badly for A.J. Brown. The team’s star wide receiver had been dealing with a bone bruise in his knee for weeks and benefited from extra time to heal when the Titans’ bye shifted to Week 4 amid the outbreak.
When the sophomore wideout returned to action in Week 5 against the Bills, he didn’t look like a guy who had missed nearly a month. Brown corralled seven of nine targets for 82 yards and a touchdown, as he and Ryan Tannehill torched the Buffalo secondary to remain undefeated on the season. Tennessee’s dynamic offense continued to thrive, posting its third straight game with 30+ points.
Up next is a battle with the Houston Texans, whose defense has allowed gaudy opposing stats in all but one game this season. And if you’re not a Tannehill believer by now, I’m not sure what else you’re waiting to see. His comfort with the system in Tennessee is apparent, and he should have another profitable day at the office in Week 6.
Though Jonnu Smith is worthy of targets, Brown looks healthy enough to reclaim his role as the star of the Tennessee passing attack. Look for big things out of him once again in Week 6. He should clear a reasonable yardage total suppressed by the notion that the Titans would rather run the ball than air it out to one of the league’s ascendant young play-makers.
The Play: A.J. Brown over 64.5 receiving yards (-112)
Parlay odds on this week’s picks: +695
Bonus longshot of the week: WR Chase Claypool (PIT) to score two touchdowns (+900) — Hey, why not?
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Brenden Schaeffer is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Brenden, check out his archive and follow him @bschaeffer12.