Best NFL Player Prop Bets: Week 9 (2020)
The Le’Veon Bell revenge game narrative? We were on the wrong side of it in Week 8. Then Chase Claypool beat us by half a reception. It happens. At least we faded Zeke!
Let’s get right into the players and props to watch for in Week 9. For this week’s picks, we bounced between DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM to find the most favorable odds to help win you some money.
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The Prop: O/U 42.5 rushing yards for Gus Edwards (BAL)
Find someone who loves you as much as Jim Harbaugh and the Baltimore coaches love Gus Edwards.
With Mark Ingram sidelined last week against the Steelers, Edwards out-carried the electric rookie J.K. Dobbins, 16 to 15. Dobbins was far more efficient, clearing 100 rushing yards for the first time in his NFL career, but Edwards was no slouch. He piled up 87 yards and claimed Baltimore’s lone rushing touchdown on the day. It’s a frustrating reality for Dobbins-backers in fantasy football, but Edwards isn’t going anywhere. The Ravens prefer a rotational approach to its backfield. It is what it is, at this point.
But this Sunday should present another opportunity for both Edwards and Dobbins to shine, as Ingram didn’t practice all week due to the high-ankle sprain he’s been nursing. Ingram was listed as doubtful on Friday’s injury report, likely leaving the two-headed monster ready for an encore. Indy presents a difficult match-up on the ground, but hey, so did Pittsburgh last week.
The Colts won’t coerce the Ravens to go away from their strengths. Lamar Jackson has struggled with passing consistency lately and he coughed up four turnovers last week against the Steelers. Though the day will come where the reigning MVP convincingly reclaims his mojo, a game against the sturdy Colts defense isn’t the time to force anything. Baltimore will take timely shots, but the run game is their bread and butter. I expect the coaching staff to continue its strategy to unleash Dobbins as the season develops, but without Ingram as a threat to steal any carries, Edwards should still see ample workload to attack this prop on Sunday. One more thing: If you like my logic, here, another prop to consider is over 11.5 rush attempts for Edwards, even odds at BetMGM.
The Play: Gus Edwards over 42.5 rushing yards (-110 at BetMGM)
The Prop: O/U 5.5 receptions for Christian McCaffrey (CAR)
We’re finally here. After weeks of waiting, the Carolina Panthers are expected to activate star RB Christian McCaffrey for Sunday’s game against the Chiefs. McCaffrey has practiced in full this week after recovering from a high-ankle sprain he suffered in Week 2. Though it’s hard to imagine the Panthers would allow CMC to suit up if he were less than 100-percent, there is some question as to whether second-string runner Mike Davis has earned the right to continued touches in this offense.
In reality, Davis is nowhere close to the player McCaffrey is. But with fresh legs, Davis burst onto the scene in CMC’s absence by picking up the mantle and producing McCaffrey-like box scores for several weeks in a row. Though he has crashed back to earth in recent weeks, it feels as though the coaching staff will give Davis dozen-plus snaps and a handful of touches in Week 9, in deference to the fine job he’s done the last six weeks.
Though a match-up with the Chiefs screams shootout, McCaffrey may not receive his customary workload right out of the gate. Combine that with the fact that Teddy Bridgewater hasn’t involved Davis as much in the passing game in recent weeks suggests that McCaffrey’s production through the air may take a minute to return to its typical outrageous rate. It’s always possible Matt Rhule gameplans entirely around McCaffrey to prove that the focal point of his team’s offense is firmly back in business, but I’m hesitant on the notion. Full disclosure, BetMGM are offering even odds on the over, here. I’m just not convinced CMC reaches the required number in his first game back.
The Play: Christian McCaffrey under 5.5 receptions (-121 at BetMGM)
The Prop: O/U 51.5 rushing + receiving yards for Zack Moss (BUF)
A clear trend is emerging within the Bills backfield. Though rookie Zack Moss was hyped heavily leading into the season, injuries largely derailed the first half of his year. That left Devin Singletary with plenty of chances to make his mark as the go-to running back in Buffalo. Instead of grabbing the job by the horns, Singletary has lacked luster, leaving the door open for Moss to assert himself upon his return to health.
Now that Moss is physically able, he’s emerging as the more potent weapon out of the backfield in Buffalo. Last week, he found the end zone twice on 14 carries to complement an 81-yard day at the office. He didn’t catch a pass in that win over the Jets, but Moss is a capable receiver whose role could continue to grow in this offense after his impressive showing in Week 8. This week, Buffalo gets the Seattle Seahawks, which could spell shootout. The consistent involvement of the running backs, though, could depend upon Josh Allen’s ability to keep pace with Russell Wilson.
Regardless, I view Moss as the 1A to Singletary’s 1B this week, at worst. Interestingly, DraftKings requires more scrimmage yards of Singletary than Moss for this week’s props. I’m looking to take advantage of that. I’m hitching my wagon to Moss, expecting his rise to relevance to continue in Week 9.
The Play: Zack Moss over 51.5 receiving yards (-112 at DraftKings)
Bonus touchdown scorers of the week: Antonio Brown +150, DeeJay Dallas +100, Kyler Murray +140
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Brenden Schaeffer is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Brenden, check out his archive and follow him @bschaeffer12.