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Best NFL Player Props & Picks: Bears vs. Packers (Week 5)

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The Chicago Bears visit the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on Sunday, October 11, for a Week 5 NFC North matchup. Looking for the best NFL player props for Bears vs. Packers? Our BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet enters the week with +86 units of profit, a 52.6% win rate and 3.5% ROI across 2,496 picks through four weeks. We break down our favorite prop bets using player workloads, matchup trends and projections ahead of the 1 p.m. ET kickoff.

    NFL Player Props, Picks & Predictions: Bears vs. Packers

    Here are some of Andrew Erickson’s top picks for Bears vs. Packers. And check out all of his top picks for NFL Week 5.

    Best Bets for Bears vs. Packers

    We have three divisional matchups this week featuring home underdogs: the Packers, Chargers, and Titans. With only one of these teams having won a game so far this season, the Packers are my favorite of the bunch (though I think blindly betting all three is probably the right process play).

    Home underdogs are 14-8-1 ATS. Divisional home underdogs are 5-0 ATS and 4-1 SU, and divisional underdogs overall are 10-2 ATS. Printing press.

    Factor in that the Chicago Bears aren’t nearly as profitable ATS on the road as they are at Soldier Field, and that they’re starting a backup QB who threw close to 3 INTs last week, all erased by New York Jets penalties; this is a total lock for me.

    The Packers are never a strong bet on the road as favorites, but as home underdogs -> they are 4-2 ATS since 2023. This is only the 7th time they’ve been home underdogs in the last three seasons. And it’s only their second home game after opening the season with 3 of 4 road games.

    GB narrowly escaped Tampa Bay with a 17-14 win. But as I alluded to in my Thursday Night Football Betting Primer, the Pack could have easily won by 10-plus points had it not been for two red-zone turnovers deep in enemy territory.

    The Packers have the better and more established QB in this game, so it’s a no-brainer for me. I’m also not convinced the Bears defense has become elite over the last three weeks, given their games against the Vikings (Carson Wentz in bad weather), Eagles (broken), and Jets (ran 32 offensive plays).

    The Packers beat the Bears at home last year by 7 points as 6.5-point favorites. In these 3 GB-CHI matchups last year, the home team won and covered.

    Best HC as an underdog ATS in the NFL: Matt LaFleur at 61% (minimum 2 seasons) tied with Houston’s DeMeco Ryans.

    I understand the Packers’ OL woes, but the offense has changed a bit to mitigate the impact. Jordan Love is getting the ball out quickly. Love has averaged 2.48 seconds to throw this season, the quickest mark in the NFL and nearly three-tenths of a second faster than his next-closest qualified-season mark of 2.77 seconds, set in 2023 (Next Gen Stats).

    And maybe…just maybe…the Packers are more fired up to take a shot on Ben Johnson after he knocked this team out of the playoffs last season…

    Erickson’s Picks

    • Packers +2.5

    Best NFL Same Game Parlay for Bears vs. Packers

    Here is our top NFL same game parlay for Bears vs. Packers. And you can view all of our Week 5 NFL same game parlays.

        This is arguably the biggest divisional rivalry matchup this week. The 3-1 Bears are slight road favorites against the 2-2 Packers with NFC North bragging rights on the line. Instead of worrying about who wins, though, let's lock in some player props for our parlay. 

        D'Andre Swift could be in for a heavy workload. Fellow Bears running back Kyle Monangai is out, and quarterback Caleb Williams is questionable with his hamstring injury. Tyson Bagent will likely be under center as the Bears roll with a run-first game plan. The situation and the matchup both point to a big day for Swift. 

        The Packers allow the fifth-most rushing yards per game this season (139.3 per contest). The defense has also given up the second-most carries per game to opposing running backs (27.3). Meanwhile, Swift is averaging 17.3 rushing attempts and 77.8 rushing yards per game. That's with Monangai taking away touches and production, though. Swift could easily get 25 carries with 100+ yards in this matchup. 

        On the Green Bay side, expect the Bears to hold Tucker Kraft in check. The tight end is off to a slow start, averaging just 37 receiving yards per game. He's also gone under 49.5 yards in three of four games. Chicago's defense allows only 34.8 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends, the sixth-lowest mark in the NFL. 

        Parlay Odds: +400

        Best NFL Player Props for Bears vs. Packers

        We compiled several projection sources to come up with consensus projections. We then compared these projections to the NFL player prop bet odds from the sportsbooks to give you the best NFL player prop bet picks. View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.

        Our NFL Player Prop Bet Cheat Sheet assists bettors by comparing lines from leading sportsbooks with our daily NFL projections.

        What is an NFL player prop bet?

        An NFL player prop bet is a type of wager where you’re betting on the performance of a specific player in a game rather than the overall outcome. For example, you might place a bet on how many passing yards a quarterback will throw for, or how many touchdowns a running back will score. It’s a fun way to get more invested in the action, especially if you’re confident in how a particular player will perform, regardless of who wins or loses the game. It’s like focusing on one slice of the pie instead of the whole thing.

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