Best NFL Player Props & Picks: Chiefs vs. Broncos (Week 8)
The Kansas City Chiefs visit the Denver Broncos for an AFC West matchup in Week 8, with Kansas City favored by 1.5 points and the total set at 40.5. Our Chiefs vs. Broncos player prop picks use the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet, which has delivered +31 units this season while putting together four consecutive winning weeks. Passing yards picks have hit at a 59.4% rate for a 19.4% ROI. Read on for our best NFL player props for Sunday's divisional game in Denver.
NFL Player Props, Picks & Predictions: Chiefs vs. Broncos
Here are some of Andrew Erickson’s predictions for Chiefs vs. Broncos. And check out all of his top picks for NFL Week 8.
Chiefs vs. Broncos Preview & Picks
I am firmly on the Under at 40.5 and on the Broncos moneyline at +108. I like Denver here, and the value is on Denver catching a point and a half at home.
As a home divisional dog, you are trying to get the best number you can with them, and they are alive to win this game outright. They could beat the Chiefs. I liked them in back in Week 1 too, but Patrick Mahomes came out guns blazing and ripped this defense apart in a 31-10 Kansas City win.
But in the rematch, I think Denver has a couple more counters; the Chiefs’ offense still lacks pass catchers, and we shall see how much Rashee Rice can contribute in his first game back. Broncos CB Pat Surtain is back practicing in full.
The total is where my best bet comes into play. The history is one-sided: each of the last 7 games between these two teams has gone Under, Denver has won 17 of its last 19 home games, and as a home underdog since the 2025 season Denver is 4-0 ATS and 3-1 straight up with a 1-3 O/U record.
Bo Nix is 17-3 at home, including 2-0 against the Chiefs. pic.twitter.com/7cneC8KinM
— Zac Stevens (@ZacStevens) October 30, 2026
Kansas City is just 5-10 O/U as a road favorite and 6-9 ATS in that role (2-7 ATS since last year). Both teams are top-10 in passing defense by EPA per attempt faced. The Chiefs have the second-best red zone defense and the Broncos rank seventh, and they sit at 17.2 and 20.1 points allowed per game.
Bo Nix is a big part of why I expect this to be low-scoring (shockingly).
He has a league-low 41.3% completion percentage against man coverage this season, the lowest by a quarterback in a season since at least 2018. Part of that is how far he pushes the ball: he averages a league-high 11.7 air yards per attempt against man, compared to 5.1 against zone, the second-fewest. That 6.6-yard difference is the largest among qualified quarterbacks. The Chiefs play man on 31.5% of dropbacks (seventh-highest), and they played man on 30.3% of Nix’s dropbacks in Week 1, when he went 3-of-8 for 23 yards and an interception against it.
I will say that if the Chiefs are without multiple starting CBs…Nix’s odds of playing well increase dramatically. Hurts the UNDER, but supports a Broncos’ upset.
Props & Picks
- Under 40.5
- Broncos ML
Best NFL Same Game Parlay for Chiefs vs. Broncos
Here is our top NFL same game parlay for Chiefs vs. Broncos. And you can view all of our Week 8 NFL same game parlays.
- Leg 1: Jonah Coleman Under 46.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
- Leg 2: Evan Engram 20+ Receiving Yards (-140)
- Leg 3: Patrick Mahomes 15+ Rushing Yards (-107)
Jonah Coleman returned from injury last week and immediately led Denver's running backs in rushing, with 54 yards on 6.0 yards per carry. He seems to have the upper hand in the backfield over J.K. Dobbins, who was held to 23 yards on six carries. Despite the trend, let's fade Coleman in this week's matchup.
The Chiefs boast one of the best run defenses in the league. They're allowing the fourth-fewest yards per carry and rushing yards per game to running backs this year. Denver could struggle to get the run game going. The Broncos may also use Dobbins more after limiting his carries last week, which caps Coleman's upside. Either way, it's worth taking the under on Coleman's rushing yards.
Staying with the Denver offense, let's count on Evan Engram to be productive. Kansas City is allowing the second-most targets, third-most receptions, and sixth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends. That lines up well for Engram, despite his subpar performances this year. He only has two games with more than 20 yards, though one of those was against KC in Week 1. Engram had 43 yards on five targets with a touchdown in that game. Denver would be smart to use him more often, considering the matchup.
Meanwhile, look for Patrick Mahomes to use his legs this week. He hasn't been running as much this season, with just 71 rushing yards over six games. However, Mahomes still tends to scramble for chunk gains more in the bigger matchups. A divisional matchup against Denver is exactly that. Plus, the Broncos allow the second-most rush attempts and sixth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks.
Parlay Odds: +475
Best NFL Player Props for Chiefs vs. Broncos
We compiled several projection sources to come up with consensus projections. We then compared these projections to the NFL player prop bet odds from the sportsbooks to give you the best NFL player prop bet picks. View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.
Our NFL Player Prop Bet Cheat Sheet assists bettors by comparing lines from leading sportsbooks with our daily NFL projections.
What is an NFL player prop bet?
An NFL player prop bet is a type of wager where you’re betting on the performance of a specific player in a game rather than the overall outcome. For example, you might place a bet on how many passing yards a quarterback will throw for, or how many touchdowns a running back will score. It’s a fun way to get more invested in the action, especially if you’re confident in how a particular player will perform, regardless of who wins or loses the game. It’s like focusing on one slice of the pie instead of the whole thing.
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