Best NFL Player Props & Picks: Falcons vs. Buccaneers (Week 8)
The Atlanta Falcons visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for an NFC South matchup in Week 8, with Tampa Bay favored by 2.5 points and the total set at 44.5. Our Falcons vs. Buccaneers player prop picks draw on the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet, which has recorded four consecutive winning weeks and +31 units in season profit. Anytime touchdown picks have contributed +14.3 units with a 58.2% win rate and a 15.7% ROI. Below, we examine our favorite NFL player props for Sunday's divisional matchup.
NFL Player Props, Picks & Predictions: Falcons vs. Buccaneers
Here are some of Andrew Erickson’s predictions for Falcons vs. Buccaneers. And check out all of his top picks for NFL Week 8.
Falcons vs. Buccaneers Preview & Picks
I like the Falcons here as a small road underdog, and I would take them to win the game outright. The Buccaneers are coming off a big win, but so are the Falcons. Beating the undefeated 49ers is more impressive than what Tampa Bay did to Carolina (as we have seen Carolina’s defense get destroyed twice in the last week).
Atlanta is traditionally an overrated home team, and here you get them on the road (the road team has won the last 6 Bucs’ games).
Tampa Bay won by running the ball against a Carolina defense that is terrible against the run. The Buccaneers threw only 11 times, so I still don’t know how their passing game is fixed. The Buccaneers' passing offense was struggling immensely even before Mayfield got hurt. He has covered just once in his last 13 starts, and the market has continued to dramatically overrate Tampa Bay since the second half of last season.
Atlanta’s run defense has been much better all season. Atlanta is a little banged up on defense, but I like Michael Penix as an underdog. The Falcons are 9-2-1 ATS as an underdog since 2025. Penix specifically is 6-1 ATS as a road underdog since 2025.
He has played really well, and as long as Drake London plays (he had the concussion scare but returned to the game), I have Penix, London and Bijan Robinson on my side, so give me the Falcons to win outright.
Per Next Gen Stats…Penix Jr. enters Week 8 with the fourth-best passer rating (109.1) and TD-INT ratio (9-1) in the NFL this season.
Penix has only faced Todd Bowles’ defense once (Week 1 2025). Atlanta lost by 3 points at home despite out-gaining Tampa Bay by nearly 100 yards and controlling time of possession (Penix threw for nearly 300 passing yards).
You want to bet ON Mayfield on the road as an underdog, not as a small home favorite.
Keep in mind that Tampa Bay’s +11 point differential, the only positive one in the NFC South, is helped a lot by the blowout of Carolina, and Atlanta’s -2 is skewed by the way the season started.
And given the total line movement, I do slightly lean over the total at 43.5.
Props & Picks
- Falcons ML
Best NFL Same Game Parlay for Falcons vs. Buccaneers
Here is our top NFL same game parlay for Falcons vs. Buccaneers. And you can view all of our Week 8 NFL same game parlays.
- Leg 1: Bijan Robinson Under 79.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- Leg 2: Cade Otton 30+ Receiving Yards (-142)
- Leg 3: Tez Johnson 30+ Receiving Yards (-119)
Fading Bijan Robinson is always risky. However, we're doing it this week against Tampa Bay's stout run defense. The Buccaneers are allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game (77.3) and the fifth-fewest yards per carry (3.6). They should keep Bijan in check at home.
Robinson's big-play potential is scary, but he's also been limited lately. He was held to 63 yards on 20 carries last week against San Francisco, and just 61 yards against Chicago the week prior. Plus, besides his two explosive 100+ yard games, Robinson is averaging just 73 rushing yards per game in his five other outings.
On the Bucs' side of things, let's target a pair of pass-catchers. Atlanta is allowing the sixth-most receptions and ninth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends. The Falcons also allow the sixth-most targets and eighth-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers. That points us to Cade Otton and Tez Johnson.
Emeka Egbuka is out again this week. That pushes up Otton and Johnson in the pecking order for Atlanta's receiving production and targets. Johnson saw a season-high 65% snap share last week with Egbuka out, and he had 33 yards and a touchdown to show for it. He should be more involved with his teammate sidelined.
As for Otton, he's been quiet recently, but the matchup is tough to ignore. Plus, Tampa's tight end had 25+ yards in each of the first five games. He can return to that level and exceed it, given how much Atlanta has struggled to cover tight ends. It also helps that Baker Mayfield should be healthier this week for the Bucs to throw it more often.
Parlay Odds: +450
Best NFL Player Props for Falcons vs. Buccaneers
We compiled several projection sources to come up with consensus projections. We then compared these projections to the NFL player prop bet odds from the sportsbooks to give you the best NFL player prop bet picks. View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.
Our NFL Player Prop Bet Cheat Sheet assists bettors by comparing lines from leading sportsbooks with our daily NFL projections.
What is an NFL player prop bet?
An NFL player prop bet is a type of wager where you’re betting on the performance of a specific player in a game rather than the overall outcome. For example, you might place a bet on how many passing yards a quarterback will throw for, or how many touchdowns a running back will score. It’s a fun way to get more invested in the action, especially if you’re confident in how a particular player will perform, regardless of who wins or loses the game. It’s like focusing on one slice of the pie instead of the whole thing.
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