Best NFL Season-Long Player Prop Bets, Odds & Picks: Quarterback (2022)
The NFL season is approaching, and we’re getting a better understanding of how rosters will shake out as preseason continues. This can help us as we’re preparing to lock in NFL future bets before the odds change with the seasons.
The quarterback is one position where placing player props makes a lot of sense now as we mostly have a clear idea of their weapons and competition. Here are my top three NFL season-long player props at the quarterback position:
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Derek Carr Over 29.5 Total Passing TDs (-112)
Derek Carr has reached 30 total passing touchdowns just once in his eight-year career. However, Carr is primed for the best season of his career this year. Last season we saw Hunter Renfrow experience a third-year breakout as he eclipsed 100 receptions and 1,000 yards while hauling in nine touchdowns.
Most importantly, the Las Vegas Raiders traded for star wideout Davante Adams this offseason. In the last two seasons, Adams has totaled 29 touchdowns in just 30 games played. Furthermore, Adams and Carr were college teammates at Fresno State, where they connected on an absurd 38 touchdowns in just 26 games together.
The Raiders also figured out their head coaching situation by hiring Josh McDaniels. McDaniels ranked seventh and ninth in pass attempts during his two seasons as head coach of the Broncos and served as Tom Brady’s offensive coordinator for many years. With the emergence of Renfrow, reuniting with Adams, and under the guidance of McDaniels, Carr should have no problem reaching 30 touchdowns in 17 games this season.
Kirk Cousins Over 4,200.5 Total Passing Yards (-110)
This upcoming season could easily be Kirk Cousins’ best to date. All of the pieces are in place. Justin Jefferson is entering his third year and already has the most career receiving yards through two seasons in NFL history with 3,016. Additionally, Adam Thielen should be back to 100% after missing a few games last season.
Furthermore, the Vikings got rid of defensive-minded head coach Mike Zimmer and replaced him with former Los Angeles Rams offensive coordinator Kevin O’Connell. Reports out of camp say that O’Connell is looking to develop a more explosive pass-heavy offense. In his two seasons as offensive coordinator for the Rams, his offense averaged 598.5 pass attempts per season. This is a number that Cousins has only surpassed twice in his career, both times throwing for over 4,200 yards. If O’Connell successfully implements a Rams-esque passing offense, Cousins should have no trouble reaching 4,200 total passing yards.
Mac Jones Over 3,750.5 Total Passing Yards (-112)
In just his rookie season, Mac Jones threw for 3,801 passing yards, which would be good enough to cash this over 3,750.5 bet for the 2022 season. However, there is a big question surrounding the offensive coordinator position with the departure of McDaniels. Reports after the first preseason game saw both Joe Judge and Matt Patricia take a crack at play calling. While those names may scare you, I believe head coach Bill Belichick will not let either of them hinder the progression of the Patriots’ second-year quarterback.
Belichick and the Patriots clearly have placed their trust in Jones, as evident by the 95 pass attempt increase from 2020 to 2021. Additionally, the Patriots traded for former Dolphins wide receiver, DeVante Parker, to help bolster the receiving core. Furthermore, the Patriots have the seventh hardest schedule regarding forecasted win totals. This may lead to more favorable passing game scripts as they may be trailing and unable to commit to the run game as much as they would like. Overall, Jones’ natural progression as a passer and likely more opportunities to let it fly will allow him to crush his Vegas passing yards total.
Matthew Stafford Under 4,500.5 Total Passing Yards (-115)
Last season, Matthew Stafford surpassed 4,500 total passing yards with ease. The over may seem like an absolute lock. However, I don’t believe it’s that simple. Cooper Kupp experienced a historic season in 2021, finishing with 1,947 receiving yards. The odds are that Kupp will not repeat this next-level production in 2022.
Additionally, since 2014, Stafford has only reached 4,500 passing yards once in eight seasons. Before 2014, when Stafford threw for over 4,500 yards for three straight seasons, he also averaged 674.7 pass attempts per season. Since then, he has averaged just 576.7 pass attempts in seasons where he is fully healthy. In his first season with the Rams, Stafford had 601 pass attempts and reached 4,500 due to his career-best in yards per attempt.
However, there are many reasons why he may not repeat that same production level in 2022. First, former offensive coordinator, O’Connell, is replaced by ​​Liam Coen, who is new to the role at an NFL level. Secondly, the Rams will experience the toughest change in schedule from 2021 to 2022 as they now have the second hardest strength of schedule. Finally, Stafford is dealing with a lingering elbow injury. While he may be able to play through it, it could severely affect his passing volume.
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