Best Odds & Picks for NFL Defensive Player of the Year (2022)
The current odds for the NFL Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) award have three names separating themselves from the rest of the pack. DE Myles Garrett, DT Aaron Donald and LB T.J. Watt are all at +700 according to BettingPros consensus odds.
The NFL is a passing league more now than ever, so if a player gets to the quarterback at the highest rate in the league, odds are he’ll have a shot at being crowned the best defensive player. Here are a few players I think have a shot at taking the sack title:
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T.J. Watt (+700)
Watt tied the single-season sack record of 22.5 sacks while only playing in 15 games last season. The reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year finished tied for first in QB pressures, first in tackles for loss and third in PFF’s Pass Rush Grade for edge defenders in 2021. He has led the league in sacks the previous two seasons, and there is little reason to doubt he can’t do it again. This one may be the safest bet for DPOY.
Myles Garrett (+700)
A dominant force off the edge, Garrett is tied with Watt and Donald as the favorites to win the DPOY award for a reason. Garrett finished first in PFF’s Pass Rush Grade for edge defenders in the 2021 season. He also tied Watt for first in QB pressures with 52. Garrett has finished with double-digit sacks in each of his past four seasons despite missing several games during the 2020 and 2019 seasons.
As a plus, the Cleveland Browns schedule offers up several of the worst pass-blocking teams in the league. According to the PFF Pass Blocking grade, the Browns boast a schedule where eight games are against opponents with an offensive line ranked 20th or worse in 2021. At the same time, only three of their games are against teams with offensive lines ranked in the top ten. Garrett has the opportunity, name recognition and the talent to vault himself to DPOY.
Aaron Donald (+700)
The only case against Donald is that he has won the award three times before. The 31-year-old is showing no signs of slowing down as 2021 saw him record 12.5 sacks and finish 11th in QB pressures. He had the highest PFF Pass Rush and Defense Grades. And he also helped the Rams win the Super Bowl. Donald has been First-Team All-Pro every season since 2015.
His sack totals in the last five seasons are 11, 20.5, 12.5, 13.5 and 12.5. Donald also had a career-high 84 combined tackles in 2021. He is the best defensive player of a generation and has a case to be argued as the best ever. A fourth defensive player of the year award would go a long way in making the latter argument.
Maxx Crosby (+3000)
DE Maxx Crosby is a great value bet here, but there is also a case to be made he is the best bet for the 2022 DPOY. Last season saw Crosby named to his first Pro Bowl after recording eight sacks and finishing top 10 in QB pressures. Crosby finished second in PFF’s Pass Rush Grade for edge defenders sandwiched between Garrett (first) and Watt (third).
Las Vegas added DE Chandler Jones this offseason to rush the passer alongside Crosby. The pair should cause plenty of headaches for offensive line coaches looking to scheme against this elite pass rush. The added help along the defensive line could free up Crosby for a massive year. If he continues his career trajectory, the 24-year-old could leap to the top of the league in sacks and find himself in the conversation for DPOY.
Best Bet
While I like the value of Crosby at 30-1, the best bet for NFL Defensive Player of the Year has to be Watt (+700). Watt is at the peak of his powers. He has led the league in sacks each of the past two seasons, both times playing only 15 games. If he plays 17 games in 2022, leading the league in sacks seems like a lock, and along with it, another NFL DPOY award.
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