Best Parlay of NCAA Tournament Elite 8: Saturday (2022 March Madness)
As the number of teams starts to dwindle, so do our betting opportunities, but the first day of the Elite Eight gives us a pair of marquee matchups that present a myriad of angles to attack. Let’s dive in and see if we can profit off of the madness.
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The Blue Devils entered the tournament as a team that was inflated by everything happening around the team. However, they have shown that they can get it done on the court when the time comes. Duke has battled through two hard games against Michigan State and Texas Tech. In both games, they fell down early and then had to fight back before going on incredible runs in the final minutes of each game to seal their victories.
Here they will get an Arkansas team that will enter off of its biggest win of the year as they took down the No.1 overall seed Gonzaga. It was a very notable win, but Gonzaga missed a lot of plenty of good looks, and for all their struggles, the Zags only lost by six. JD Notae tried to take the game into his own hands as he attempted 29 shots and only made nine of them. If Arkansas performs like that against Duke, it will not go well.
The Blue Devils are a potent offense and have a lot of size and length to throw at the Razorbacks on the defensive end. They should get the job done here.
In their Sweet 16 matchup against Texas Tech, we saw the Blue Devils speed up the Red Raiders and take control of the game with an increased tempo. In this matchup, it will be Arkansas who will push the tempo. The Razorbacks will enter as the 45th fastest team in the country. Although Duke generally plays much slower, they have so much athleticism and outside shooting that they can be deadly in transition.
Overall, points will not be hard to come by in this contest as Duke enters as the second-best team in the country in terms of offensive efficiency. The Razorbacks are not far behind at 53rd.
The median projection for this total is close to 149, and it may even exceed that number with the help of late-game fouling.
Houston to Win by 3-6 Points +360
Houston and Villanova are both teams that are going to try and grind out their opponent. They both play excellent defense and also play very slowly. Houston is 323rd in tempo, and Villanova is even slower at 348th. The pace and level of defense will make points come at a premium. However, the Cougars are good enough to squeak out a victory here.
They are the superior defense and have the ability to match up will all of Villanova’s leading scorers. Houston is 3rd in effective field goal percentage, and they are great a defending without fouling, which is crucial against Villanova as they are the best free-throw shooting team in the country.
Jamal Shead, Josh Carlton, and Kyler Edwards lead an ever-improving offense that is eighth in offensive efficiency and 30th in effective field goal percentage on the other end of the court. The Cougars are also a fantastic offensive rebounding team, so second-chance points will also be a significant factor in their scoring.
In the end, the quality of both teams defensively will not allow either team to pull away here, and I think the Cougars will be on top in the closing moments so that late-game free throws will help the line fall in this range.
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