Best Prop Bets for Super Bowl LIV

The big game is just over 24 hours away, and money, especially casual money, is really starting to pour in on prop bets. There are more props than one can imagine, as different books offer varying options for bettors to indulge in. Instead of writing over 10,000 words covering every single player prop like we did here last year, we will instead take a look at some of the most appealing player props, as well as some around the game props like the infamous Super Bowl coin toss or Gatorade bath bets some just cannot seem to stay away from. We will start with the two props featured in the Super Bowl LIV game preview published yesterday.

Find consensus player prop odds ahead of Super Bowl LIV! >>

Kansas City Chiefs second quarter moneyline including tie (+100)
The spread for this line currently sits at zero points at -116. The moneyline which is offering the exact same thing sits at -114. However, if you are willing to eschew the push possibility you can get the three-way moneyline at +100 at FanDuel.

The Chiefs have been the number one scoring offense in the second quarter this season, which is why the juice for the spread and two-way moneyline are currently where they are. The Chiefs are number one in the NFL with 12.2 points per second quarter.

The 49ers were also very good in the second quarter at 9.0 points per which placed them fifth in the league. To put the point gap in context, the 3.2 point discrepancy between the Chiefs at 12.2 and the 49ers at 9.0, is the same difference as the 49ers have from the 25th place Detroit Lions at 5.8. The 49ers fall to 7.2 on the road, the Chiefs sit at 12.1. Lock this in at FanDuel before the rising juice on the Chiefs for the spread and the two-way moneyline allows them to charge juice for this one.

Pick: Chiefs (+100)

George Kittle over 5.5 receptions (-172)
Player prop bettors, especially the early ones, really know their stuff. Even though Kittle has failed to clear this total in any of his playoff contests, averaging just two receptions per game, the juice on this prop is an insane but still attractive -172. Kittle has gone over 5.5 receptions in 10 of his 16 contests this season, and in three of his six contests against teams that made the playoffs. His average against playoff teams was dragged down by his performances against the Minnesota Vikings and the Green Bay Packers (when he was not needed), sitting at 4.16 per contest. The rest of his averages all suggest that the over is indeed the smart play.

He averaged 6.07 receptions per game on the season and 5.375 receptions per game on the road. He averaged 7.5 receptions per game in losses, and 5.83 per game in contests the 49ers won. Kittle was better in the second half of the season, averaging 6.5 receptions per game.

The juice is not pretty, but with this being cash-out day for NFL only bettors, eating the juice to get action on a prop with this high of a win probability is strongly recommended. Lock this one in as soon as possible, as the juice is only going to continue to rise.

Pick: Over 5.5 receptions (-172)

San Francisco over 2.5 sacks (+110)
It is surprising that this prop sits at plus money at the current time. The 49ers have recorded three or more sacks in 13 of their 18 contests this season, and are a very strong bet to do so once again against the Chiefs, especially at plus money. Their percentage against playoff teams still sits at over 50 percent, as they went over 2.5 sacks four of the seven contests against teams that tasted postseason action. Patrick Mahomes has been sacked more than two times just twice this season, but they have yet to face a team that can generate the type of pressure that the 49ers front four can.

Pick: Over 2.5 (+110)

Kendrick Bourne anytime TD (+220)
Kendrick Bourne at +220 for an anytime TD seems like a good bet. Bourne has been heavily involved on third downs and around the goal line in recent weeks. He has four touchdowns in his six games against teams that made the playoffs. He completely disappeared in the Divisional Round as the 49ers did not need to lean on the passing game due to blowing out the overmatched Green Bay Packers.

With the 49ers expected to actually have to compete in this contest, Bourne is a solid ‘longshot lite’ plus money play. In the four contests the 49ers have actually had to compete in this season (Baltimore, New Orleans, Atlanta, Seattle), Bourne has tallied four total touchdowns. He failed to score in just one of those contests, and that was when Atlanta scored twice in the final two seconds of the game, making the game script appear different than it actually was. Damien Williams and Raheem Mostert should also be touched, but the value here is too solid not to dip our toes in. Punch this one for the big game, even if you just lay a partial unit for a full unit return.

Pick: Kendrick Bourne (+220)

Raheem Mostert over 75.5 rushing yards (-112)
Found as high as 77.5 on our live player prop odds page, and as high as 80.5 at some unscrupulous dog books, this line can be found at 75.5 via our handy new tool. Mostert rushing total props are always tougher to gauge. On one hand, he is the clear lead back and just demolished the Packers for 220 rushing yards just two weeks ago. This was a much more attractive prop when we thought Tevin Coleman may miss the Super Bowl, but with him being left off the 49ers final injury report, and head coach Kyle Shanahan stating that the shoulder injury is now just a pain management and tolerance issue, it is hard to envision a scenario where Coleman misses the big game. 

Mostert has averaged 89 rushing yards per game against teams that made the postseason, and with Coleman playing, but undoubtedly still dealing with pain in the shoulder he still has the potential to hit 76 rushing yards. The Kansas City Chiefs defense relinquished 103.3 rushing yards per game at 4.77 yards per carry this season, so Mostert hitting the over is going to come down to a numbers game. If Mostert, who averaged 5.6 yards per carry during the season and 6.78 yards per carry in the playoffs, gets 17 or more carries he should easily hit the over. San Francisco is all but certain to play the time of possession game in an effort to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field, so there is a high enough probability that Mostert gets the requisite amount of carries to clear the total. There is however more risk in this prop that one may think, so we will keep this to a one-unit play.

Pick: Over 75.5 (-112)

Chris Jones solo tackles plus assists over 2.5 (-135)
Chris Jones played just 42 percent of the snaps against the Tennessee Titans and still racked up two total tackles (solo plus assists). Jones practiced in full this week and is expected to be ready to play a full complement of snaps in Super Bowl LIV. With the 49ers being a run-heavy team, Jones is going to have plenty of tackle opportunities and should easily eclipse the 2.5 number. Jones faced three elite running backs this season in Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, and Dalvin Cook. In those four games (Oakland twice), Jones recorded eight total tackles, five total tackles, five total tackles, and three total tackles respectively. The -135 is higher than one would like, but that’s what happens when sharps have an extra seven days to pound their favorite props. Lock this one in before the juice rises.

Pick: Over 2.5 (-135)

Around the game

How many Instagram posts will Patrick Mahomes’ girlfriend post on February 2nd (@brittanylynne)?
With Instagram story pictures or videos all counting as a separate post, the over 4.5 in an easy play. If it was traditional posts alone, or a story counted as only one post than the under would be a smash play. There is a very good chance that this prop clicks before the game even starts. The stars are out in Miami more than in most other cities that host a Super Bowl, so do not be surprised if she is posting selfies and hype videos on a regular basis with family, friends, and people she meets throughout the day. Brittany is a very enthusiastic supporter of her boyfriend Patrick Mahomes, and love it or hate it, you have to respect and admire her passion. Hit the over on this entertaining prop.

Pick: Over 4.5 (-106)

How many times will they mention Katie Sowers being the first female head coach in the Super Bowl – Over 0.5 (-800)
This juice on this means you are looking for just a partial return unless you have the bank roll to lay action on this prop and still dip your toes in others. This is as close as it gets to free money. While there is a non zero percent chance that she does not get mentioned at all, it is as unlikely as it is that we will see zero combined points scored in the Super Bowl. Lock this in if you have the float to do it.

Pick: Over 0.5 (-800)

What color will the liquid be that is poured on the head coach?
Here are the odds for liquid color prop bet. -130 purple, +300 red, +450 lime/green/yellow, +800 orange, +800 clear/water, +1100 blue. Here is the color count over the past 15 Super Bowl’s. Clear: 4, None: 2, Orange: 4, Blue 2, Purple: 1, Yellow: 2. It is worth noting that the four clear showers came four years in a row, and has not made an appearance for over 10 years. 

Apparently, purple opened at +1000, and as high as +1200 at some books. Purple was the long shot due to its scarce appearance in recent memory, but a supposed leak suggesting that the teams and the NFL would honor Kobe Bryant with a purple Gatorade/liquid bath has caused significant steam movement on the purple prop.

As with most steam-movement-based line moves, sharps quickly pounced on these rumors causing the line to start to plummet when the other early bettors caught wind, they quickly followed the sharp action causing a precipitous drop in the line. This type of movement is almost unheard of barring what the sharps believe is an accurate leak. Fading the favorite to guarantee a return is a common practice when a favorite emerges, so the fact that purple continues to be smashed should give us the confidence needed to follow suit. With this prop as high as -222 at some books, taking the -130 gamble seems like a smart play.

Pick: Purple (-130)

Heads or Tails (-102)
The coin toss. I once saw someone walk out of a Super Bowl party at a banquet hall with an open bar and a five-course meal right after the coin toss. This story is meant to suggest that you should not bet so big so as to lose your shirt on what is an actual coin toss. There is no edge to be found. Heads is supposed to be the slightly heavier side but tails is 28-25 in Super Bowl history. If that were not enough, tails has hit in five of the last eight Super Bowls. Line shopping is an absolute must for a prop like this as there is no reason to suffer more juice than necessary. PointsBet is asking for just two cents on the dollar which is among the lowest you will be able to find anywhere. Tails is my personal preference, and with the trends supporting it, that is the recommendation. Just remember, keep your action on this prop to a minimum entertainment only proposition.

Pick: Tails (-102)

National Anthem over 116 seconds (-150)
This is a prop one only has to go to YouTube to do research on as Demi Lovato has sung the national anthem at sporting events before. The juice on this prop makes it obvious which way her anthem duration is expected to go. The 119.5 seconds this prop sits at most non-dog books is a pretty sharp line, but YouTube video surfing reveals that she was just under 119 seconds in game four of the 2015 World Series, and just over 132 seconds during the Floyd Mayweather vs. Connor McGregor boxing match. While we do not expect her to draw out notes as much as she did during the Mayweather-McGregor fight, she should hit over two minutes with relative ease.

Lovato has actually gone under in three of her four major anthem renditions, but her two most recent renditions average out at 125.5 seconds. There was some intriguing, but concerning recent line movement (for those who have already locked in a higher number) at one book after her rehearsal. The line dropped all the way from 123 seconds to 116, making for a much easier over decision. Lock this one in as soon as possible, as the juice is bound to continue to rise.

Pick: Over 116 seconds (-150)

Will Demi Lovato be wearing a skirt, dress, or gown to sing the national anthem? Yes -175
There is no need to overthink this prop. She has worn one of the three options in three of her four anthem renditions posted in this helpful article from For the Win. If that was not enough to convince you, the massive juice on this prop should get you there. Punch this in for a one-unit return.

Pick: Yes (-175)

Find consensus player prop odds ahead of Super Bowl LIV! >>

Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.