Best Prop Bets for the 2021 AT&T Byron Nelson (PGA)
With the 2021 PGA Championship just one week away, a strong field makes its final preparations at this week’s AT&T Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas. The event returns to the PGA Tour schedule after being canceled in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Sung Kang defends his 2019 title at Trinity Forest Golf Club. Let’s look beyond the odds to win outright for value in the top 2021 AT&T Byron Nelson prop bets.
The field is fronted by betting favorites Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau, who are third and fourth, respectively, in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR). Hideki Matsuyama and Brooks Koepka are among those playing their first event since the Masters as they prepare for the second major of 2021.
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Top USA Player
Scottie Scheffler (+1400 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Scheffler shares the fifth-best odds to win the AT&T Byron Nelson at +1600. Getting him to be the top American golfer while removing the threat of Rahm (+850), Matsuyama (+1600), Matt Fitzpatrick (+1800) or another international long shot gives up very little in potential profit. At No. 22 in the OWGR, he’s the seventh-best player but fourth-best American in the field.
The reigning PGA Tour Rookie of the Year is seventh on Tour this season in par 4 efficiency: 450-500 yards; there are five such holes on the course. He’s also 16th in birdie or better percentage and is averaging 0.66 Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee per round for the season, according to Data Golf. He’s also one of several Texas natives in the field who may have an experience advantage as TPC Craig Ranch hosts a PGA Tour event for the first time.
Top-5 Finish
Ryan Palmer (+750 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Another Texas native, Palmer is a similarly strong fit for the course. He’s 24th on Tour in par 4 efficiency from our chosen distance, and he’s T-11 in birdie or better percentage. He’s coming off a lackluster T63 showing at the Valspar Championship, but he tied for second at the Farmers Insurance Open earlier this year and generally plays well on long and difficult courses.
Miss the Cut
Brooks Koepka (+350 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Only four players in the field have higher odds of missing the cut or lower odds to make the cut this week. Koepka is making his first appearance since a missed cut at the Masters roughly a month after undergoing knee surgery. The two-time PGA Championship winner is likely to be looking ahead to next week and will be tailoring his game to Kiawah Island. The threat of injury is enough reason to fade him in a surprisingly strong field.
Best Finishing Position
Jordan Spieth -135 vs. Daniel Berger +105 on BetMGM Sportsbook
Spieth and Berger each have a victory this year. Berger won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in mid-February and Spieth won the Valero Texas Open prior to his T3 finish at the Masters. While Spieth has risen from No. 82 in the OWGR at the end of 2020 to No. 28 entering this week, Berger is still ranked higher at No. 16.
Berger has also been better with the driver this season. He averages 0.55 SG: Off-the-Tee per round and Spieth is losing 0.12 strokes per round. Take the plus-money with Berger with the 7,468-yard venue not suiting even Spieth’s vastly improved game.
Leader After Round 1
Sung Kang (+17500 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
We’re ignoring Kang’s 2019 AT&T Byron Nelson victory at Trinity Forest but the change of locale may favor him even more as he defends his title. He is a member of TPC Craig Ranch and will have the experience advantage over nearly the entire field.
He still has just the one PGA Tour win and comes in with eight missed cuts through 12 events this year, but he tied for second at the 2020 Genesis Invitational against a strong field and at the lengthy Riviera Country Club. He’s +32500 to win this week at DraftKings but there’s still plenty of value for a hot start with the 18-hole lead on his home course.
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Esten McLaren is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Esten, check out his archive and follow him @EstenMclaren.