Best Prop Bets for the 2021 PGA Championship
The PGA Championship returns to the Ocean Course at Kiawah Island in South Carolina. Rory McIlroy headlines the 156-man major field as the defending champion from 2012, while Collin Morikawa looks to defend his 2020 title at TPC Harding Park last summer. We looked at the best bets to win outright in our 2021 PGA Championship Betting Guide; below, we’ll make our picks and predictions for the top PGA Championship prop bets.
The field includes 99 of the top 100 players in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR). World No. 27 Matthew Wolff, the runner-up at the 2020 US Open, withdrew last week. Among the other storylines to watch this week, Brooks Koepka seeks a third career PGA Championship win, and the resurgent Jordan Spieth tries again to raise the Wanamaker Trophy to complete his career grand slam. Hideki Matsuyama will play just his second event since winning Japan’s first men’s golf major at April’s Masters; he tied for 39th at last week’s AT&T Byron Nelson. Let’s get to the PGA Championship prop bets!
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Top Former Winner
Brooks Koepka (+800 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Backing Koepka here is largely just a fade of McIlroy (+210) in this 15-man group. Justin Thomas (+280), Collin Morikawa (+390), and Keegan Bradley (+650) all have lower odds than the two-time tournament champ, who’s much better for this course.
Morikawa and Thomas are first and second, respectively, in Strokes Gained: Approach this season, according to Data Golf, but Koepka is 19th in driving distance while they’re just T125 and T53, respectively. Koepka missed the cut last week in his first event since missing the cut at the Masters, but he showed well in the key areas. He was third in the entire field with 1.18 SG: Around-the-Green and 1.21 SG: Off-the-Tee per round over 36 holes. He’s also second in sand save percentage for the season and should return to contention for the first time since undergoing knee surgery in March.
As for Bradley, while he tied for third in 2012, he has slipped to No. 73 in the OWGR and hasn’t won on Tour since 2018.
Top-10 Finish
Dylan Frittelli (+1800 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Frittelli, 30, has a best career major finish of T5 at November’s Masters Tournament. He missed the cut at Augusta National Golf Club in April, but the Ocean Course is a much better fit for his current game. The South African is 13th on the PGA Tour in Driving Distance and third among golfers with at least 20 measured rounds played in SG: Around-the-Green this season. He’s +40000 to win outright but still offers plenty of profit potential with 19 places of a cushion.
Best Finishing Position
Hideki Matsuyama -110 vs. Patrick Cantlay -110 (at BetMGM Sportsbook)
Cantlay is the pick over the reigning Masters champ at even odds for this 72-hole matchup. Matsuyama returned to play last week but lost 1.12 strokes around the green per round en route to a lackluster T39 finish. Cantlay remains higher ranked in the OWGR at No. 12 to Matsuyama’s No. 15, and he’s the only player on Tour averaging better than 0.50 SG: Around-the-Green and Off-the-Tee per round. Additionally, he’s seventh this season in bogey avoidance and will be better able to dodge high numbers that are sure to plague scorecards this week.
Will There be a Playoff?
Yes (+400 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
This is always a risky prop, but the difficult conditions of the Ocean Course and the potentially harsh winds should keep scores condensed. When removing McIlroy and his 13-under-par winning score from 2012, David Lynn would have been the winner at minus-5. After that, four other players tied for third at minus-4 with another four at minus-3. In all, 18 players scored between minus-1 and minus-4. Take the chance to quadruple your investment on PGA Championship prop bets and hope for poor weather.
Wire to Wire Winner
Yes (+1200 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
This play piggybacks off of the playoff prop and again hopes for poor weather. While the current forecast looks clear from Thursday to Sunday, things can change quickly along the Atlantic coastline. Carl Pettersson and Rory McIlroy finished first and T2, respectively, after 18 holes in 2012. They went on to finish T3 and first, respectively. If someone can go out and post a low score in premium conditions Thursday, they’ll be tough to catch if the winds and weather worsen through the weekend.
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Esten McLaren is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Esten, check out his archive and follow him @EstenMclaren.