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Best Prop Bets Today: 5-Star Picks for Friday (10/16)

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There's no such thing as a surefire bet that will win you $1 million. But with BettingPros' suite of tools, we can help put you in a better position to make informed betting decisions each day and over the long run.

Whether you're a first-timer or an experienced bettor, we can all use a little help. One way to find value is to use the BettingPros prop bet cheat sheets for your sport of choice and filter by star rating.

On a scale of one to five stars, BettingPros rates player props across multiple sports. The star rating is determined by our projections, expected value and advanced modeling.

From NBA rebounds to NFL receptions, there is no shortage of props to bet on every single day. And if you're too busy to spend hours digging through the data, we've done the research for you.

Read on for our top five-star prop bet of the day.

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Best Prop Bets Today

On top of pinpointing our best prop bets today by star rating, we can take it a step further by identifying which five-star props also have a 100% hit rate over the player's last five games. You can also filter hit rates over the past 15 games, but let's not push our luck.

Bryce Young Over 32.5 Pass Attempts

Last Week: 1-0  | Season Record: 12-9 | Best Odds: -123 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Xavier Hutchinson smashed his Week 5 receiving yards prop line of 19.5 yards, catching three of his five targets for 45 yards. His line eventually closed at 26.5, showing why it pays to make bets early to get ahead of line movement. We’re now on a mini two-week streak of our 5-star props hitting. Can the good times keep rolling? Let’s hope so.

With zero WNBA games today and just one MLB contest scheduled, we’re going to stick with NFL props for another week. It’s Week 6, meaning we have more data and trends to make meaningful decisions from, and more opportunities for players to meet our five-game threshold.

The NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for Week 6 currently lists 13 player props with a 100% hit rate over the last five games - with just one 5-star bet. 

That sole 5-star NFL prop bet is Bryce Young to go over 32.5 pass attempts. This line opened at 34.5 attempts, and BettingPros has him projected for 31.9 attempts, which is close enough to his current line of 32.5 attempts that taking the over is better than backing the under.

The math on this one is simple: Young has gone over 32.5 attempts in all four games this season (Carolina was on a bye in Week 5), and six straight when you factor in last season’s Wild Card contest against the Rams and Week 18 matchup with the Buccaneers. Young is averaging an astonishing 40.5 attempts per game this season. Matthew Stafford, who leads the league in pass attempts (216), is averaging 43.2 per game (with an extra game at hand).

Young’s lowest passing volume this season was 36 attempts against the Falcons in Week 2. His season high is 48. The Philadelphia Eagles, Young’s Week 6 opponent, have allowed four of the five quarterbacks they’ve faced this season to hit the over on this prop. The only signal-caller who failed to hit the over was Cam Ward. When you exclude Ward, the Eagles are allowing 39.5 pass attempts per game.

DraftKings Sportsbook is the only major oddsmaker that has set this line at 32.5, so it’s best to place your bet now before it inevitably goes up.

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