Best Prop Bets Today: 5-Star Picks for Friday (8/14)
There's no such thing as a surefire bet that will win you $1 million. But with BettingPros' suite of tools, we can help put you in a better position to make informed betting decisions each day and over the long run.
Whether you're a first-timer or an experienced bettor, we can all use a little help. One way to find value is to use the BettingPros prop bet cheat sheets for your sport of choice and filter by star rating.
On a scale of one to five stars, BettingPros rates player props across multiple sports. The star rating is determined by our projections, expected value and advanced modeling.
From WNBA rebounds to MLB home runs, there is no shortage of props to bet on every single day. And if you're too busy to spend hours digging through the data, we've done the research for you.
Read on for our top five-star prop bet of the day.
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Best Prop Bets Today
On top of pinpointing our best prop bets today by star rating, we can take it a step further by identifying which five-star props also have a 100% hit rate over the player's last five games. You can also filter hit rates over the past 15 games, but let's not push our luck.
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Total Bases
Last Week: 1-0 | Season Record: 6-4 | Best Odds: +165 at SugarHouse
Dane Meyers pulled through for us two weeks ago, with a 1-for-4 performance, helping us cash the over on his combo prop. Let’s try to get in the win column again this week.
The MLB prop bet cheat sheet for Friday lists 27 player props with a 100% hit rate over the last five games - with only one labeled as a 5-star bet.
The only 5-star prop today is for Jackson Merrill to go over 1.5 total bases, a feat he has accomplished in seven straight games.
The San Diego Padres center fielder has not only gone over on this total bases line in seven consecutive contests, but he’s done so in 10 of his last 12 games.
In the month of August, Merrill has been a total bases machine, averaging 2.75 total bases in 12 games this month, including at least one total base in 11 of those 12 games. That includes seven performances with three or more total bases, including two games in which he totaled five bases.
Even in July, Merrill was producing some eye-raising results, including six games with five or more total bases, and he even had 10 (10!) total bases on July 19th thanks to a pair of home runs. We can only dream of such a performance today. Luckily, we only need two total bases out of him - a result he has produced 50 times in 2026.
It’s a small two at-bat sample size for Merill against Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Gavin Williams, today’s opposing pitcher. But Merrill does have one hit in those two at-bats - a double. A double is all we would need for Merrill to cash this prop today.
The MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet projects Merrill for 1.6 total bases, which also happens to be his season average, with a 42% projection EV.
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