Best Super Bowl LV Long-Shot Bets (2021)
Super Bowl Sunday is a gambler’s paradise. From the over/under on the length of the pre-game national anthem to the color of the post-game Gatorade shower, you can find odds on just about anything for this game.
For this article, we’re going to pinpoint a few prop bets that will almost assuredly result in a donation to the sportsbook. But hey, fortune favors the bold! If you come out on the right side of even one of these longshot bets on Sunday, it won’t really matter how the rest of your slate shakes out—hitting on one of these suckers should put you handily in the green for the evening.
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Total players to throw a touchdown pass – Over 2.5 (+1100 at DraftKings)
With the eyes of the nation fixed on the action, it takes real guts to call for a trick play in the Super Bowl. The proposition for a trick play pass attempt, specifically, by anyone other than the starting quarterback? That’s even bolder in a game that features Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes as the gunslingers.
But Andy Reid and Bruce Arians aren’t afraid to mix it up, and this article is all about the unlikely, right? If I’m looking to light some money on fire during this Super Bowl with a remote chance for a massive payout, I can’t think of a more entertaining way to accomplish that goal than taking the over on this prop. It’s a virtual certainty that Brady and Mahomes will each toss a TD. Why not spend the rest of the game awaiting the kind of specialty play that would go down in Super Bowl history?
If it happens, everyone at your Super Bowl party will be buzzing about the play. You’ll be the one reaping the substantial reward.
The odds of Reid drawing up a ‘Philly Special’ thrown to Patrick Mahomes are probably low given the QB’s bum ankle and recent concussion, but those nagging injuries present another reason to consider the possibility of Chad Henne putting his mark on the game. That, of course, would be the worst-case-scenario for the quality of the game itself, but the injury factor is an element that makes this prop worthy of consideration at its return.
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Any quarterback to record 500 or more total passing yards – Including overtime (+1600 at DraftKings)
When the Chiefs and Bucs battled it out in Week 12, Brady and Mahomes traded punches combined for 807 passing yards and six touchdowns. Neither hit the 500-yard mark in that game, but Mahomes actually wasn’t too far off—he chucked it for 462 yards on 49 pass attempts as the Chiefs secured a 27-24 victory.
The stakes of the Super Bowl have a way of forcing teams into playing a more careful, controlled style of football than they would in the regular season, particularly as teams look to nurse a lead with ball-control down the stretch. That’s a reason to consider leaning under on an inflated total of 56.5 for the game, and admittedly, it doesn’t lend itself to the kind of shootout that could inspire such massive numbers through the air.
At the end of the day, though, we’re still talking about Brady and Mahomes, here. The better quarterback performance often decides the outcome, and both will have every opportunity for impact in a game each knows will have ramifications on their respective legacies.
Brady holds the current Super Bowl record for passing yards at a mark that would clear this prop. He threw for 505 yards in a Super Bowl LII loss to the Eagles a few years ago. If this game turns into the kind of back-and-forth shootout that makes for a memorable championship, then it’s entirely possible one of these two superstars sets a new Super Bowl passing record—and cashes your ticket in the process.
Interception returned for touchdown – Yes (+1000 at FanDuel)
With the sheer passing volume expected in this game, there are bound to be some misfires. With talented ballhawks on both sides, the possibility of a pick-six looms as a factor with the capability to turn the Super Bowl on its head.
Mahomes was clean when these two teams hooked up in November, but Brady threw a pair of interceptions in the loss. It would take some luck and fortuitous timing for one of those INTs to be taken back the distance this time around, but it’s far from an unprecedented occurrence in Super Bowl history.
Though the ROI for a pick-six in Super Bowl LV is quite profitable, the long odds don’t align with the play’s frequency throughout Super Bowl history. Out of 54 Super Bowls, 13 have featured a pick-six. That means an interception has been returned for a touchdown in 24% of Super Bowls all-time.
There’s no question, these quarterbacks are remarkable. They’ll do everything possible to limit mistakes—but those guys on defense are playing for a ring, too. The ability to land +1000 odds on a play that’s occurred in nearly a quarter of Super Bowls throughout history feels like a savvy way to get some leverage on a longshot for Sunday’s big game.
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