Best Super Bowl LV MVP Long-Shot Bets
Before we get into the meat of this article, I want to give full disclosure: the MVP of the Super Bowl will be Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes.
Okay? It just will be.
In this matchup of two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks—is it too early to say that? I’m going with it, anyway—the winning team’s quarterback will almost certainly be named the MVP, regardless of merit.
Understand?
Fantastic. Now that we’ve established this, let’s talk about how you could shove some cash into an industrial-strength blender Sunday. Let’s bet on some alternative Super Bowl MVP longshots!
Though these candidates will almost definitely fall flat, rendering your initial wager a loss, the upside is tremendous for bettors who enjoy chasing unlikely but rewarding payouts.
In determining which longshot MVP candidates to target, we have to establish how we expect the Super Bowl to play out. With the total for the contest set at 56.5 and the opposing gunslingers’ regarded reputations, there’s a chance this game unfolds as an instant classic shootout. If it does, we would expect the winning QB to take home the glory.
But what happens if the game script plays as anticipated, only with the vast majority of the winning team’s offensive success flows through one singular weapon? Between the Chiefs and Bucs, I’ve got my eyes on three players specifically that could emerge with all-time Super Bowl performance under such a scenario. All of the odds listed below can be found at FanDuel Sportsbook.
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Tyreek Hill (+1400) or Travis Kelce (+1400)
If KC wins a shootout, would anyone be surprised if it’s because Patrick Mahomes locked onto one favored target? Spreading the wealth relatively evenly between Hill and Kelce—the more likely scenario—would probably result in Mahomes taking home the hardware. If Tampa Bay develops its defensive game plan around specifically limiting one of them, that could open the door for a historical performance for the other.
Tyreek Hill’s explosiveness frequently results in monster games for the lightning-quick wideout. We’ve already seen it happen against the Bucs this season. In Week 12 against Tampa Bay, Hill went nuclear for 13 receptions, 269 yards, and three touchdowns in a historic first-half performance. Perhaps the Bucs will approach Hill with a different strategy this time around. Still, it’s hard to ignore No. 10 as a sleeper MVP candidate considering his effort in the previous match-up would have undoubtedly netted him the award.
As for Travis Kelce, his path to the trophy would be forged by Tampa Bay successfully shutting down Hill with creative schemes and double teams. Such a scheme could open the middle of the field for the athletic tight end. Though he’s explosive in his own right, Kelce’s impact often builds more slowly throughout a game. He uses his impressive frame to demoralize defenses in 10 to 20-yard chunks. Including the playoffs, Kelce has posted a whopping 11 games this season with at least eight catches, and he’s fresh off a 13-catch, two-touchdown performance in the AFC Championship. That’s in the neighborhood of the kind of performance that could earn him MVP consideration if he repeats it in a Chiefs win on Sunday.
Mike Evans (+3400)
On the other side of the field, Mike Evans is the most obvious choice for a non-Brady boom performance. At 6’5″ with ridiculous speed and athleticism, Evans is a match-up nightmare with the ability to take over a game. He’s done it a couple of times this season, most notably with a 10-catch, 181-yard, two-touchdown performance in Week 16 against the Lions.
Interestingly, Evans didn’t have a massive day when he last faced the Chiefs, but he cashed in where it counted. Evans caught a pair of touchdowns as Tom Brady’s trusted target in the red zone. As the most relevant weapon in a high-scoring offense, Evans turning in a highlight-worthy performance wouldn’t surprise anyone. Especially with Antonio Brown banged up, Evans is definitely capable of demanding the kind of target-share that could lend itself to a dark horse MVP candidacy.
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What about the defense?
Though it’s a rare occurrence, a superior effort by a defensive player has occasionally resulted in Super Bowl MVP honors. Von Miller claimed the award when the Broncos defense carried Peyton Manning to the win in Super Bowl 50. Malcolm Smith of Seattle won it a couple of years prior as a member of the Legion of Boom-era Seahawks defense.
In a game where both offenses are expected to thrive, it’s unlikely a defensive player would snare the award. However, the ROI would be astronomical, and these are longshot bets, after all. So let’s key on a player of interest from each side and articulate our logic behind the selections.
Tyrann Mathieu (+5000)
Earlier this week, I wrote an article for BettingPros pinpointing a few longshot props bets for Super Bowl LV. One of the bets I targeted was for an interception return for a touchdown in the game. If that bet is going to hit, Tyrann Mathieu is the guy I’d like to see cash it.
At safety, the Honey Badger typically has more license for creativity in the scheme than cornerbacks assigned to man coverage. Given his penchant for finding the football, I like his chances to make his mark on Sunday. Turnover generation is an absolute must if you’re going to win Super Bowl MVP as a defensive player. Mathieu has six interceptions and a pick-six to his credit this year.
Lavonte David (+12000)
Lavonte David might be the most underrated defensive player in the NFL. He’s consistently among the league’s best tacklers at linebacker. His nose for the football in a variety of situations is undeniable. Throughout his nine-year career, David has refined a balanced skill set that has seen him force and recover fumbles, intercept passes and get to the quarterback with regularity. It’s the sheer versatility of his impact that makes David a fascinating, super-longshot choice for Super Bowl MVP at +12000.
After suffering a hamstring injury in the NFC Championship, David’s status for the game was uncertain earlier this week. Knowing all the veteran linebacker has been through, though—playing for numerous losing teams in Tampa Bay before finally reaching his first Super Bowl this season—there wasn’t any way David would miss this game. He was removed from the injury report Friday and should be good to go on Sunday.
If the high-octane game script doesn’t come to fruition, but the Bucs find a way to win a lower-scoring affair, I’m pegging the stat-stuffing David as a big reason why.
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Brenden Schaeffer is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Brenden, check out his archive and follow him @bschaeffer12.