Best Under the Radar College Football Bets for Week 5 (2021)
Boom! After consecutive 1-2 weeks, we went 3-0 on our college football under-the-radar plays last week, with UTSA and Boston College winning outright! Hopefully, you took both those teams on the moneyline as well.
Let’s see if we can keep the momentum rolling in Week 5.
- Week 4 record: 3-0
- 2021 season record: 8-6
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Army Black Knights -7.5 at Ball State Cardinals
Laying more than a touchdown with a service academy is always a little risky. The triple-option offense produces long drives and keeps the clock moving. That means Army needs to be efficient with every drive to cover as road favorites.
Army should have no trouble moving the chains and converting against this Ball State defense. The Cardinals rank 108th in the country in rushing defense, allowing 189.5 yards per game on the ground and 4.9 yards per carry. Ball State has also surrendered eight touchdowns, six of which came on the ground, on 13 trips into their own red zone.
The defending MAC champions also don’t do anything spectacular on offense, ranking outside the top 90 in both rushing and passing offense.
Maybe there’s concern of Army looking ahead to its bye week before traveling to Wisconsin the week after. But this team is too well-coached and too disciplined for such distractions. Army just covered against Miami-Ohio last week and should make it two covers in a row against MAC opponents.
The pick: Army -7.5
USC Trojans -7.5 at Colorado Buffaloes
There’s something about backing USC as a favorite that makes me queasy, even with Clay Helton out the door. Just look at what happened last week, as the Trojans lost at home to Oregon State for the first time in 61 years. But Oregon State might be a decent little team. Colorado is an entirely different story.
The Buffaloes are a disaster offensively, having scored 20 points in its last three games combined. Since losing to Texas A&M 10-7 in Week 2, the Buffs have been outscored 65-13. And I haven’t even gotten to the best part yet… Colorado is completely one-dimensional, and not in the way you might think.
The Buffaloes can’t throw the ball, literally. They’ve thrown it just 82 times this year, completing 41 passes for 340 yards and one touchdown. That means Colorado must be really good running the ball, right? Wrong. The Buffaloes average just 154 yards on the ground and 4.1 yards per attempt.
Defensively, Colorado doesn’t offer much resistance to USC’s passing game. Last week against Arizona State, the Buffaloes surrendered 10 yards per pass attempt on just 27 attempts. Colorado also doesn’t pressure the quarterback much and has just five sacks on the season.
USC enters boulder averaging 308 passing yards per game. It’s always tough to trust whether the Trojans will show up, but I’m thinking a 50% effort may be enough to cover against this Colorado team.
The pick: USC -7.5
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +20.5 at North Carolina State Wolf Pack
This is a brutal spot for North Carolina State, who is coming off the biggest win of coach Dave Doeren’s nine-year tenure with the school. And I’m not the only one saying that, Doeren is too.
“I would,†Doeren said when asked whether last weekend’s win over Clemson was the biggest of his career, per the News & Observer. “I think it’s put us in a position, not only because they’re a top-10 team and it’s our first ACC game of the year, and the number of times that we’ve had a chance to beat them and couldn’t. The number of times they’ve been in the playoff, National Championship game, that’s a great football program that we just beat.â€
So you just beat mighty Clemson for the first time since 2011. And next week, you have a road trip to Boston College for a crucial divisional game. How focused will the Wolf Pack be for a random evening kickoff against little ole Louisiana Tech?
This is a rare letdown and lookahead spot for the Wolf Pack. Louisiana Tech is a scrappy team that ranks 42nd in the nation in passing offense. The Bulldogs are led by coach Skip Holtz, who is an excellent coach to back as a dog. In Week 1, LA Tech almost beat Mississippi State — a team that beat N.C. State handily earlier in the season — as 20.5-point road underdogs.
While I don’t mind betting the full game, I am going to recommend a first half bet on the Bulldogs. My biggest reason for concern is Louisiana Tech’s pass defense, which ranks third-to-last in the nation in average passing yards allowed. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bulldogs were tied or leading at halftime.
The pick: Louisiana Tech +10.5 1st half, lean Louisiana Tech +20.5
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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @RealMattBarbato.