Best Under the Radar College Football Bets for Week 6 (2021)
It’s always great to string winning weeks together. Counting my lean on the Louisiana Tech full game spread, we posted a 3-1 week, with Army being the lone loss.
Let’s keep the momentum going as we get closer to the midway point of what’s been a wild college football season. Disclaimer: this is not my favorite card for under-the-radar plays.
- Week 5 record: 3-1
- 2021 season record: 11-7
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UTSA Roadrunners +4 at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Let’s start with a pivotal Conference USA crossover game between two teams who have treated us well this year. The Roadrunners come into Bowling Green a perfect 5-0 with wins over Illinois and Memphis. Meanwhile, Western Kentucky is 1-3 with losses to Army, Indiana, and Michigan State.
The Hilltoppers don’t hide their offensive identity. They come into every game with a clear desire to air the ball out. They lead the country with 442.8 passing yards per game and have just 90 rushing attempts in four games. Quarterback Bailey Zappe can absolutely sling it and has completed nearly 73% of his passes for 1,712 yards, 16 touchdowns and only two interceptions. He’s even played well when stepping up against competition, throwing six touchdowns and no interceptions against the Hoosiers and Spartans.
Meanwhile, UTSA is more balanced offensively but will happily win games by relying on star running back Sincere McCormick. The junior tailback has 541 yards and six touchdowns on the ground. When the Roadrunners aren’t pounding the rock with McCormick, quarterback Frank Harris is plenty capable, having completed 68.8% of his passes this season.
The weakest link in this game is Western Kentucky’s run defense, which I expect to be the key factor in the game. The Hilltoppers have been shredded on the ground to the tune of 216.5 yards against per game. Even Tennessee-Martin rushed for more than 200 yards on this front seven.
That spells disaster against the Roadrunners. I expect UTSA to control the trenches, stage long drives on the ground and keep Western Kentucky’s high-powered passing attack on the sideline.
I’ll take the Roadrunners to run to victory.
The pick: UTSA +4
Temple Owls +29 at Cincinnati Bearcats, Total 54
Cincinnati is riding high after back-to-back road wins over Indiana and Notre Dame. Those marquee wins have the Bearcats firmly in the College Football Playoff discussion. However, a Friday night home game against Temple with a visit from Central Florida on the horizon is a bit of a sleepy spot.
Regardless of motivation, Cincinnati’s defense should dominate this Owls offense. Other than red-zone efficiency, Temple ranks outside the top 85 in all key offensive categories. And Temple will have a harder time turning red-zone trips into touchdowns against a Bearcats defense that’s dominant in the red zone.
Cincinnati may put up plenty of points, but it wouldn’t stun me if the Bearcats pitched a shutout defensively. In a game where Cincy will just want to get out healthy, they won’t be overly motivated to run up the score as they set their sights on UCF.
The pick: Under 54
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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @RealMattBarbato.