Best Under the Radar College Football Bets: Week 10
The college football season always flies by. It seems like just yesterday I was giving out Hawaii in Week 0 against UCLA. But we’re already in November, and we’re starting to get a clear view of what teams are as the home stretch of the regular season gets underway.
Last week, we went 1-1, with South Alabama taking care of business against Arkansas State and Colorado State letting us down against Boise State. Of course, there’s nothing wrong with a .500 week, but let’s see if we can get back to our winning ways in the first weekend of November.
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- Week 9 record: 1-1
- 2021 season record: 17-11
Central Michigan Chippewas +10.5 at Western Michigan Broncos, Total 67
Naturally, we start this week’s slate off with some weekday MACtion, which might not be so underground anymore.
The Broncos have recently dominated this in-state rivalry game, taking home the Victory Cannon in each of the last three meetings.
The Chippewas love to play fast and sling the ball around. Central Michigan averages 79 plays per game, the eighth-highest mark in the country. They also lead the MAC with 288 passing yards per game, which ranks 22nd in the country.
On the flip side, Western Michigan’s offense led by Kaleb Eleby is also highly successful through the air, averaging just shy of 250 passing yards per game. And while the Broncos do an excellent job of getting to the quarterback, they’re weak in the secondary and are terrible at tackling.
Both of these defenses are susceptible to big plays through the air, and they have the offensive firepower to exploit those flaws on defense. So I’m expecting a shootout. Western Michigan might retain the Victory Cannon, but it should be closer than the spread indicates.
Picks: Over 67 (best play), Central Michigan +9.5 or better
Army Black Knights +2.5 at Air Force Falcons, Total 37
Let’s turn to a critical battle for the Commander in Chief’s Trophy, where we’ll be bucking a major trend.
Service academy showdowns tend to be low-scoring thanks to their triple-option offenses. The clock is always running as each team gets three yards and a cloud of dust on each offensive play.
But this year’s matchup could be different. First off, while both of these offenses play at sluggish paces, they’re both highly efficient. Army ranks sixth in the country, averaging 3.43 offensive points per drive, and has racked up 60.3% of available yards this season, ranking ninth. Air Force isn’t far off, ranking 23rd and 17th in those respective categories.
Defensively, Army ranks 59th in stuff rate — which measures how many times a defense stops a run at or behind the line of scrimmage — while the Air Force ranks outside the top 100.
These two teams haven’t combined for more than 31 points since 2016, but I suspect that’s about to change. Both teams should move the ball with relative ease and finish drives with touchdowns. Army has 20 red zone touchdowns in 27 trips, while Air Force has 22 red zone touchdowns in 32 trips.
Go against the trend and take the over in this service academy showdown.
Pick: Over 37 points
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Tennessee Volunteers +1 at Kentucky Wildcats, Total 56.5
Now, we head to the SEC, where Tennessee and Kentucky will square off for a critical East Division contest.
Kentucky was a national darling after getting off to an impressive 6-0 start. But then Georgia dominated the Wildcats, and things went downhill. Kentucky has now dropped two straight games after falling to Mississippi State on the road. So I suspect the Cats could be in store for a third consecutive defeat.
The Volunteers hung tough with mighty Alabama their last time out, and the 52-24 final score doesn’t accurately reflect that. The Vols successfully moved the ball through the air against the Crimson Tide, averaging 10.1 yards per pass. Plus, Tennessee’s had a week off to prepare for UK and heal up some critical injuries along the entire offense.
Tennessee should have enough defensively to stymie Kentucky’s rushing attack, as the Vols are giving up just 3.63 yards per carry. On the flip side, Tennessee’s offense should be able to attack Kentucky through the air after the Wildcats surrendered 344 passing yards to Mississippi State last week.
Tennessee’s trajectory is going up, while Kentucky’s appears to be trending down. So give me the Vols in an upset.
Picks: Tennessee +1, Moneyline +100
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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @RealMattBarbato.